Holiday Forecasts 2022

[Brian D]

On 5/6/2022 at 1:36 PM, Brian D said:

Here's my July 4 forecast which is a Monday this year. I have the map for that day, but the weekend looks like a storm front moving through on Sat, with high pressure over the lakes Sun. I have a boundary along the southern sub, with another approaching front in the north on the 4th. Not a total wash out, but shwrs/stms will be around. Sunday into Monday could be rather cool for some.

Interesting.

[Brian D]

On 5/6/2022 at 1:36 PM, Brian D said:

Here's my July 4 forecast which is a Monday this year. I have the map for that day, but the weekend looks like a storm front moving through on Sat, with high pressure over the lakes Sun. I have a boundary along the southern sub, with another approaching front in the north on the 4th. Not a total wash out, but shwrs/stms will be around. Sunday into Monday could be rather cool for some.

Looks like the gov models are starting to lock in to something similar to what I forecast, but 1 week to go, so we shall see. Hope ev1 enjoys the weekend coming up with whatever plans you may have.  

[Brian D]

On 5/6/2022 at 1:36 PM, Brian D said:

Here's my July 4 forecast which is a Monday this year. I have the map for that day, but the weekend looks like a storm front moving through on Sat, with high pressure over the lakes Sun. I have a boundary along the southern sub, with another approaching front in the north on the 4th. Not a total wash out, but shwrs/stms will be around. Sunday into Monday could be rather cool for some.

Decent call for this holiday weekend. My map is probably a better depiction of Saturday into Sunday's set up. 

[Brian D]

Forecast for Labor Day weekend this year looks like a rather warm, and stormy scenario with Canadian high pressure starting to make a move into the region Sunday night into Monday. Here's the Labor Day map.

[Brian D]

On 5/28/2022 at 1:08 PM, Brian D said:

I have a forecast for later in July on Parent's Day (24th). Looks like a front moving in with very warm temps ahead, and showers/storms on tap for the western areas of the sub.

Looks like I'm going to be off by a good half day or so here. Front starts moving through the day before (23rd) into Sunday (24th).

[Brian D]

After Labor day, the holiday/observance list I use has nothing else really, so I have a forecast for the Fall equinox. Front moving through with a ridge following is what it looks like to me, so expect showers/storms affecting the region as we officially transition into Fall.

[Brian D]

On 6/14/2022 at 2:03 PM, Brian D said:

Adding a couple more forecasts for August. Next up is Friendship Day on Aug 7. Looking rather warm, with storms, especially for the western sub.

Not too bad of a call for this day. High pressure moving in a little quicker in the north than anticipated, but a front moving through nonetheless.

[Brian D]

On 6/14/2022 at 2:06 PM, Brian D said:

Next is Senior Citizen's day on Aug 21. Again, looking similar to Friendship day with warmer weather and storms. 

GFS showing a similar pattern for this day. 

[Brian D]

On 6/14/2022 at 2:06 PM, Brian D said:

Next is Senior Citizen's day on Aug 21. Again, looking similar to Friendship day with warmer weather and storms. 

Good call. Front slowly making it's way through over the weekend.

[Hoosier]

I ain't ever heard of Senior Citizens day before this thread.

[Brian D]

On 8/20/2022 at 2:59 PM, Hoosier said:

I ain't ever heard of Senior Citizens day before this thread.

Yeah, there are some observances I never knew about either. Kinda neat to know we have some like this tho.

[Brian D]

My Columbus day forecast looks like a system moving in along a boundary with a ridge up in Canada. Cooler in the north with some showers with warmer temps, and storms for parts of the southern areas.

[Brian D]

Halloween looks pretty fair overall. Temps will be chilly in the morning, but pleasant in the afternoon.

[Brian D]

On 7/20/2022 at 12:40 PM, Brian D said:

Forecast for Labor Day weekend this year looks like a rather warm, and stormy scenario with Canadian high pressure starting to make a move into the region Sunday night into Monday. Here's the Labor Day map.

The way it looks now, my forecast is off by a couple days. High pressure will move in Fri-Sat instead of Sun-Mon. There will be another front coming starting late Monday, tho, but I messed up on the high pressure timing. A generally cool, pleasant weekend on tap. Enjoy  

[Brian D]

On 7/25/2022 at 1:19 PM, Brian D said:

After Labor day, the holiday/observance list I use has nothing else really, so I have a forecast for the Fall equinox. Front moving through with a ridge following is what it looks like to me, so expect showers/storms affecting the region as we officially transition into Fall.

A week out, and looks like a good call at this point, but we'll see as we get a couple more days closer.

[Brian D]

Looking into Nov, My forecast foe Veteran's Day has a system moving through with some wet weather, and mix across the north. 

[Brian D]

Thanksgiving day is looking pretty mellow. Chilly am tho.

[Brian D]

On 7/25/2022 at 1:19 PM, Brian D said:

After Labor day, the holiday/observance list I use has nothing else really, so I have a forecast for the Fall equinox. Front moving through with a ridge following is what it looks like to me, so expect showers/storms affecting the region as we officially transition into Fall.

Going to be a full day slow on this one. Ridge will be firmly planted on the day of the equinox.

[Brian D]

On 8/23/2022 at 2:07 PM, Brian D said:

My Columbus day forecast looks like a system moving in along a boundary with a ridge up in Canada. Cooler in the north with some showers with warmer temps, and storms for parts of the southern areas.

Very so-so forecast, not much precip, and the high moved in a little quicker.

[Brian D]

Well here are my last forecasts of this year for Christmas, and New Years.

For Christmas, looking a little mild with a potential system working through the western sub over the holiday period. This could be centered a bit more north, so we'll shall see how this pans outs.

[Brian D]

For New Years, I have a Canadian front moving across the north with some energy in the south that I think has a chance to move north along the boundary. If not, it'll just get shunted east to southeast ward as high pressure settles in over the Lakes.

[Hoosier]

37 minutes ago, Brian D said:

Well here are my last forecasts of this year for Christmas, and New Years.

For Christmas, looking a little mild with a potential system working through the western sub over the holiday period. This could be centered a bit more north, so we'll shall see how this pans outs.

You don't say

[Brian D]

On 8/23/2022 at 2:29 PM, Brian D said:

Halloween looks pretty fair overall. Temps will be chilly in the morning, but pleasant in the afternoon.

GFS 00Z run last night has a close representation of my expectation for Halloween. Didn't have approaching system marked, as I didn't think it necessary, as high pressure will be the dominant feature that day, IMHO. Just being quick.  

[Brian D]

On 8/23/2022 at 2:29 PM, Brian D said:

Halloween looks pretty fair overall. Temps will be chilly in the morning, but pleasant in the afternoon.

Looks like a partially ok forecast. Didn't have the low coming in from the south into our southern sub. Expected that to stay across the SE US, so didn't think it'd have any bearing for us. 

 

[Brian D]

On 9/18/2022 at 5:01 PM, Brian D said:

Looking into Nov, My forecast foe Veteran's Day has a system moving through with some wet weather, and mix across the north. 

So it looks like a good call here, but this will be an extended event ending on Veterans Day it looks like for most of us as the trough moves through. As we are just in range now for Thanksgiving, looks like a ridge is forecast by the GFS, which is what I'm anticipating, so we'll see how that ends up.

[Baum]

I miss the 6 month out Holiday forecasts.

[Brian D]

5 hours ago, Baum said:

I miss the 6 month out Holiday forecasts.

How about something a little longer than that. I have looked at next July 4 for you, so here's what it looks like to me. Pretty nice weather on tap. Late June/early July looks to have a series of fronts with some ridging in between them. Should keep things in flux a bit with temps, and precip.  I'll keep this for the next thread I start for 2023. 

[hardypalmguy]

How are you even putting these together?

[Brian D]

4 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

How are you even putting these together?

Ancient Chinese secret  

[Brian D]

On 9/18/2022 at 5:02 PM, Brian D said:

Thanksgiving day is looking pretty mellow. Chilly am tho.

Looks like a close call here. My forecast running a little behind with the front moving into the region on Thanksgiving. Either way, a nice day for most of us.