mattinpa Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 48 minutes ago, RippleEffect said: any snow showing on models? i want snow man this weather is boring i want snow now. currently 45 degrees expecting some showers in a few hours! Holiday snow is always especially welcome. Too bad it’s often too early to get big storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 Final high temperatures: Bismarck: 66° (old record: 62°, 1969) ***tied December record***Denver: 73° (tied daily record set in 1973)Glasgow, MT: 69° (old record: 62°, 1925) ***tied December record***Great Falls: 69° (old record: 60°, 1907 and 1969) ***tied December record***Helena: 70° (old record: 60°, 2008) ***new December record***Kalispell, MT: 62° (old record: 54°, 1925) ***new December record***Missoula, MT: 67° (old record: 55°, 1972) ***new December record***Omak, WA: 74° (old record: 57°, 1949) ***new December record***Phoenix: 85° (old record: 83°, 1949)Rapid City: 74° (old record: 71°, 1973)Sheridan, WY: 76° (old record: 71°, 1995)Tucson: 85° (old record: 84°, 1926) ***tied December record*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 1 hour ago, RippleEffect said: any snow showing on models? i want snow man this weather is boring i want snow now. currently 45 degrees expecting some showers in a few hours! No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 48 minutes ago, bluewave said: I think that this wave break may be having a bigger influence. It eventually pumps the Aleutians Ridge. Then the -PNA trough digs into the Pacific Northwest boosting the Southeast Ridge during the 2nd week of December. I get the impression that they're all related. Cumulatively amplifying the signal in that area. So we're seeing the amplified aleutian Ridge -PNA pattern like we are. Makes sense I think for the period. Could be aiding the +AO spike too for that time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 2" of Snow sandwiched between 60+ days? Looks like it takes about 15mins. lol JB is in on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 For example, here's the wave break with some additional juice from the Typhoon into the jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 10 minutes ago, EasternLI said: For example, here's the wave break with some additional juice from the Typhoon into the jet. Quick flights from Tokyo to L.A. at least. Plane likely barely uses any gas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Quick flights from Tokyo to L.A. at least. Plane likely barely uses any gas. I got to experience something like that. Flying to and from Vegas a little over a decade ago now. Record jet at that time. Took us 8 hrs to get there. Coming back to JFK 4 hrs. Was mind blowing to me back then lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoggyO Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 Over the weekend, when it was cloudy and raw outside, my lilac bush had several flowers blooming on it. The flowers were small, and I never remember it blooming in November, but it was definitely nice to see. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 54 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: No Yes but not alot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 I just went on the National Weather Service site and it is showing Newark as 60 degrees at 9PM. Accuweather shows 43. There seems to be some problem with Newark temps today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, lee59 said: I just went on the National Weather Service site and it is showing Newark as 60 degrees at 9PM. Accuweather shows 43. There seems to be some problem with Newark temps today. And currently showing 28% humidity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, PhenomIIX4 said: To improve depressing moods ::: I expect snowstorms to start forming Jan-Feb 2022 classic Miller B-A or plain Miller A ::: Wet JAN (less than upcoming FEB) (FEB still WET on CFS wet signature (deep moisture) is a classic example of negative tilt somewhere down south). If we do not get a solid snowstorm to cool ocean down along the EC, next 2022 hurricane season might be something serious as usual. A 6-12in 12-18in (Likely/Unlikely? Not clear yet). CFS holds frigid air mass on continuous basis on recent runs. EDIT: covering Central NJ on the statement above. However, following Northern SW Southern SW Digging South Jet Stream Orientation :: developing lows down GOM -NAO +PNA +AO +-EPO... CFS, GFS, ECMWF, CMC (GGEM), JMA, UKMET, ICON, NAM (IWM VER.) (32KM NAM, 12KM NAM, 3KM NAM) Short Range Models... We need moisture. November was less than an inch for most locales. Other than the big October rainstorm it has been fairly dry since Ida on 9/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 4 hours ago, bluewave said: I think that this wave break may be having a bigger influence. It eventually pumps the Aleutians Ridge. Then the -PNA trough digs into the Pacific Northwest boosting the Southeast Ridge during the 2nd week of December. 2001-02 may not be such a bad analog if it continues being snowless across the CONUS. 10% snowcover is one of the lowest on record at this point and TWC is making a big deal about not naming a winter storm this year, the latest by far that's happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 2 hours ago, EasternLI said: I got to experience something like that. Flying to and from Vegas a little over a decade ago now. Record jet at that time. Took us 8 hrs to get there. Coming back to JFK 4 hrs. Was mind blowing to me back then lol wait til we have SST again. There's this company developing SST based on renewable fuel and nuclear fusion based spacecraft are in the works to reduce the travel time to Mars in half. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 Gfs is still amped for the 8th storm while the CMC and Ukie are way flatter and gives us snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 5 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said: No not what canadian said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 6 minutes ago, RippleEffect said: not what canadian said And Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: And Ukie blocking showing up on canadian 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 No thread from myself yet for the 8th, but heading in right direction--especially just nw of I95. Graphics are: WPC 10% chance of 3"+, EPS snow depth increase in about 24 hours on the 8th, and GEFS as well. Just leery of further north, and would like GFS OP back on board, and keep the EC and GGEM on board. PTYPE might be a question as well. IF so, possible thread this eve or tomorrow morning but I'd like a little more consistency for a day 6-7 model forecast (06z/2 being the baseline here). Click graphics for greater clarity. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly cloudy and unseasonably warm. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 56° Newark: 59° Philadelphia: 61° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 48.4°; 15-Year: 48.7° Newark: 30-Year: 48.9°; 15-Year: 49.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 50.0°; 15-Year: 50.6° Cooler air will return tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 The first two days of December are verifying warmer than model forecasts. We are currently in the 50s for early in the morning. The model error with the fast Pacific flow and record Atlantic SSTs is too cool. Regional Weather Roundup National Weather Service New York NY 600 AM EST THU DEC 02 2021 Note: "FAIR" indicates few or no clouds below 12,000 feet with no significant weather and/or obstructions to visibility. NYZ071-072-176-178-NJZ106-104-021200- New York City Metro Area CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS Central Park CLOUDY 52 47 83 VRB3 29.91F World Trd Ctr NOT AVBL Bronx Lehman C N/A 52 46 82 S6 N/A LaGuardia Arpt CLOUDY 52 46 80 S9 29.88F Queens College N/A 52 48 87 S13 N/A Kennedy Intl MOCLDY 52 48 86 S14 29.90F Breezy Point N/A 52 N/A N/A S12 N/A Brooklyn Coll N/A 52 48 87 S10 N/A Staten Island N/A 50 46 87 S9 N/A Newark/Liberty CLOUDY 50 46 86 S6 29.89F Teterboro DRIZZLE 49 46 90 SW5 29.88F $$ NYZ177-179-078>081-021200- Long Island New York CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS Jones Beach N/A 54 N/A N/A S13G18 N/A Wantagh N/A 54 50 87 S10 N/A Hempstead NOT AVBL Matinecock Pt N/A 50 N/A N/A S5 N/A Farmingdale PTCLDY 51 46 83 S12 29.90F MacArthur/ISP MOCLDY 51 45 79 SE12 29.89F Stony Brook N/A 50 45 81 S7 N/A Shirley PTCLDY 51 43 74 SE15 29.91F Mt Sinai Harb N/A 50 N/A N/A S10 N/A Westhampton PTCLDY 52 44 74 SE10G18 29.92F East Hampton CLOUDY 51 43 73 S12 29.92F Southold N/A 50 45 81 S13 N/A Montauk N/A 51 44 77 S7 29.95F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 47degs.(40/54), or +7. Reached 50* here yesterday. Today: 55-58, wind s. to w., breezy late, m. cloudy-breaks. GFS has one 32 in the next 17 days. GFS loses the snow, EURO/CMC have it(Dec. 08---2"). 53*(88%RH)here at 6am, street wet.{was 48 at Midnite}. 52* at 9am. 55* at Noon. 57* at 3pm. 55* at 10pm. 50* at 11pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 The NWS reporting the official high yesterday at Newark was 51. Not sure what the temperature mix up was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 With the recent model runs correcting warmer for December, areas around NYC may be on track for another 40° or warmer December. A 40° December used to be a rarity before recent times. Now they are occurring more frequently. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Final high temperatures: Bismarck: 66° (old record: 62°, 1969) ***tied December record***Denver: 73° (tied daily record set in 1973)Glasgow, MT: 69° (old record: 62°, 1925) ***tied December record***Great Falls: 69° (old record: 60°, 1907 and 1969) ***tied December record***Helena: 70° (old record: 60°, 2008) ***new December record***Kalispell, MT: 62° (old record: 54°, 1925) ***new December record***Missoula, MT: 67° (old record: 55°, 1972) ***new December record***Omak, WA: 74° (old record: 57°, 1949) ***new December record***Phoenix: 85° (old record: 83°, 1949)Rapid City: 74° (old record: 71°, 1973)Sheridan, WY: 76° (old record: 71°, 1995)Tucson: 85° (old record: 84°, 1926) ***tied December record*** Wow! To see that warmth into Montana in December… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: With the recent model runs correcting warmer for December, areas around NYC may be on track for another 40° or warmer December. A 40° December used to be a rarity before recent times. Now they are occurring more frequently. This is probably the strongest signal we’ve seen for a warm December since 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: This is probably the strongest signal we’ve seen for a warm December since 2015 I guess it isn’t a surprise that December is the fastest warming winter month around the area. It’s like the seasons are getting pushed back. Summer into fall and fall into December. It was another top 5 or top 10 warmest fall for a large part of the country. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 Perhaps we sneak a snow event in before the warm next weekend. EPS idv were snowy overnight for next Wednesday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 45* here currently, after an overnight low of 41* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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