December 2021

[White Gorilla]

13 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Already closing in on 50F with brilliant sunshine.

 

What a miserable month for winter lovers. Stick a fork in it

It's been so warm, a mosquito came into my house yesterday and bit me.  I am serious! 

[SnoSki14]

24 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Already closing in on 50F with brilliant sunshine.

 

What a miserable month for winter lovers. Stick a fork in it

On the other hand it'd be a really cold month if we lived in Florida.

[dWave]

Lots of sun and 54. Expected any significant breaks of sun to be after noon. Since it's shining bright let see how warm it gets..

[forkyfork]

24 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

On the other hand it'd be a really cold month if we lived in Florida.

that's how low the bar has gotten

[forkyfork]

remember when we got arctic airmasses with clear blue skies 

[Stormlover74]

On 11/30/2021 at 9:49 PM, Stormlover74 said:

Yep +5 ewr +3.5 nyc is my guess

Final ewr +6.4, nyc +4.6

A little low but not bad overall

[bluewave]

40° and warmer Decembers have become much more common in recent years.

 

 

 

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

that's how low the bar has gotten

In my adult life I remember more New Year’s Days in the 50s then snow on the ground

December has become such a disaster. Very sad

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

On the other hand it'd be a really cold month if we lived in Florida.

Not all of Florida. Pensacola is having its warmest December on record.

[Cfa]

As an asthmatic my lungs are grateful for the dearth of arctic airmasses so far this season.

52 and overcast, much better than the reverse (25).

[tmagan]

Central Park will have a top ten warmest OND on record.

[donsutherland1]

December 2021 is finishing with a monthly mean temperature of 43.8° in New York City. That was the 3rd warmest December on record. Records go back to 1869. 5 of the 10 warmest December cases have occurred since 2000. 9 of the 10 warmest December cases have occurred since 1980.

2022 will begin with more unseasonable warmth. But a turn toward cooler weather lies ahead in the medium-range.

In the South, more near record and record heat prevailed. Preliminary records included:

Albany, GA: 87° (old record: 81°, 1951)
Baton Rouge: 84° (old record: 81°, 1974)
Charleston, SC: 78° (tied record set in 1984 and tied in 1996)
Charlotte: 73° (old record: 70°, 1996)
College Station, TX: 83° (old record: 82°, 1951)
Corpus Christi: 84° (tied record set in 2011)
Galveston: 80° (old record: 74°, 1921)
Houston: 84° (old record: 82°, 1974)
Lake Charles, LA: 80° (old record: 78°, 1933, 1934, 1964)
Meridian, MS: 84° (old record: 79°, 1951)
Mobile: 81° (old record: 78°, 1988)
Montgomery, AL: 83° (old record: 81°, 1951)
New Orleans: 83° (old record: 81°, 1971)
Pensacola: 79° (old record: 77°, 1971 and 1996)
Raleigh: 74° (old record:P 72°, 1929)
Savannah: 81° (old record: 80°, 1973 and 2015)
Shreveport: 81° (tied record set in 1951 and tied in 1964)
Tampa: 83° (tied record set in 2006 and tied in 2015 and 2018)

In addition, Houston recorded its 18th 80° day of this month. The old December record was 10 days, which was set in 2012. The 18 days also matches the November record that was set in 1927. Houston also recorded its December record 8th consecutive 80° day. The old record of 5 consecutive days was set during December 3-7, 1998 and tied during December 24-28, 2016. Houston concluded December with a monthly mean temperature of 67.8°. That demolished the longstanding December mark of 64.4° from 1933. It was also high enough to tie 1909's November average, which was the 3rd warmest November on record.

January will very likely commence with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°).

Late in the first week of January, the PNA could go positive. As that happens, the prospects for measurable snowfall could increase. Since 1990, 66% of days with 1" or more snow in New York City occurred when the PNA was positive. In addition, 81% of days with 4" or more snow occurred when the PNA was positive.

The latest guidance suggests that temperatures could head toward seasonal levels and then below seasonal levels as the first week of January progresses. The coldest air will likely remain confined to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and western and central Canada during that time. Afterward, the cold could press farther south into at least the northern Middle Atlantic and Ohio Valley regions. The colder pattern could last for two or perhaps three weeks before it breaks down. Thus, it could begin to break down sometime in the January 15-20 timeframe.    

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +16.19 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.516 today.

On December 29 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.052 (RMM). The December 28-adjusted amplitude was 2.308 (RMM).

 

[tmagan]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

December 2021 is finishing with a monthly mean temperature of 43.8° in New York City. That was the 3rd warmest December on record. Records go back to 1869. 5 of the 10 warmest December cases have occurred since 2000. 9 of the 10 warmest December cases have occurred since 1980.

2022 will begin with more unseasonable warmth. But a turn toward cooler weather lies ahead in the medium-range.

In the South, more near record and record heat prevailed. Preliminary records included:

Albany, GA: 87° (old record: 81°, 1951)
Baton Rouge: 84° (old record: 81°, 1974)
Charleston, SC: 78° (tied record set in 1984 and tied in 1996)
Charlotte: 73° (old record: 70°, 1996)
College Station, TX: 83° (old record: 82°, 1951)
Corpus Christi: 84° (tied record set in 2011)
Galveston: 80° (old record: 74°, 1921)
Houston: 84° (old record: 82°, 1974)
Lake Charles, LA: 80° (old record: 78°, 1933, 1934, 1964)
Meridian, MS: 84° (old record: 79°, 1951)
Mobile: 81° (old record: 78°, 1988)
Montgomery, AL: 83° (old record: 81°, 1951)
New Orleans: 83° (old record: 81°, 1971)
Pensacola: 79° (old record: 77°, 1971 and 1996)
Raleigh: 74° (old record:P 72°, 1929)
Savanah: 81° (old record: 80°, 1973 and 2015)
Shreveport: 81° (tied record set in 1951 and tied in 1964)
Tampa: 83° (tied record set in 2006 and tied in 2015 and 2018)

In addition, Houston recorded its 18th 80° day of this month. The old December record was 10 days, which was set in 2012. The 18 days also matches the November record that was set in 1927. Houston also recorded its December record 8th consecutive 80° day. The old record of 5 consecutive days was set during December 3-7, 1998 and tied during December 24-28, 2016. Houston concluded December with a monthly mean temperature of 67.8°. That demolished the longstanding December mark of 64.4° from 1933. It was also high enough to tie 1909's November average, which was the 3rd warmest November on record.

January will very likely commence with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°).

Late in the first week of January, the PNA could go positive. As that happens, the prospects for measurable snowfall could increase. Since 1990, 66% of days with 1" or more snow in New York City occurred when the PNA was positive. In addition, 81% of days with 4" or more snow occurred when the PNA was positive.

The latest guidance suggests that temperatures could head toward seasonal levels and then below seasonal levels as the first week of January progresses. The coldest air will likely remain confined to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and western and central Canada during that time. Afterward, the cold could press farther south into at least the northern Middle Atlantic and Ohio Valley regions. The colder pattern could last for two or perhaps three weeks before it breaks down. Thus, it could begin to break down sometime in the January 15-20 timeframe.    

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +16.19 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.516 today.

On December 29 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.052 (RMM). The December 28-adjusted amplitude was 2.308 (RMM).

 

In addition San Juan, PR will have a top ten warmest December with nine of the ten warmest Decembers from 1995 onward. Records began in 1956.

[donsutherland1]

51 minutes ago, tmagan said:

In addition San Juan, PR will have a top ten warmest December with nine of the ten warmest Decembers from 1995 onward. Records began in 1956.

Very impressive and disconcerting.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

40° and warmer Decembers have become much more common in recent years.

 

 

 

The beginning decades had one 40 degree winter and lots below 30. This plays into why snow is so commonly associated with Christmas.  
December 89 is one of my most distinct early weather memories. Playing on the ice on the frozen canals where i grew up. The continuous cold and very minimal snow. Which all came from a couple clippers.  

[Stormlover74]

23 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The beginning decades had one 40 degree winter and lots below 30. This plays into why snow is so commonly associated with Christmas.  
December 89 is one of my most distinct early weather memories. Playing on the ice on the frozen canals where i grew up. The continuous cold and very minimal snow. Which all came from a couple clippers.  

That month was full of disappointment 

[Roger Smith]

It's colder than a ____ ___ here if that helps. (-15 F)

[bluewave]

3rd warmest December in NYC with many of the top ranking years since the late 90s.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015	50.8	0
2	2001	44.1	0
3	2021	43.8	0
4	1984	43.7	0
5	2006	43.6	0
6	2011	43.3	0
7	1998	43.1	0
8	1982	42.7	0
9	1990	42.6	0
10	1891	42.5	0
11	1994	42.2	0
12	1923	42.0	0
13	2012	41.5	0
14	1996	41.3	0
-	1953	41.3	0
15	1979	41.1	0
16	1956	40.9	0
-	1931	40.9	0
17	1971	40.8	0
18	2014	40.5	0
-	1965	40.5	0
19	1957	40.2	0
20	2018	40.1	0

[MJO812]

Awful December 

[LibertyBell]

On 1/1/2022 at 7:27 AM, bluewave said:

3rd warmest December in NYC with many of the top ranking years since the late 90s.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015	50.8	0
2	2001	44.1	0
3	2021	43.8	0
4	1984	43.7	0
5	2006	43.6	0
6	2011	43.3	0
7	1998	43.1	0
8	1982	42.7	0
9	1990	42.6	0
10	1891	42.5	0
11	1994	42.2	0
12	1923	42.0	0
13	2012	41.5	0
14	1996	41.3	0
-	1953	41.3	0
15	1979	41.1	0
16	1956	40.9	0
-	1931	40.9	0
17	1971	40.8	0
18	2014	40.5	0
-	1965	40.5	0
19	1957	40.2	0
20	2018	40.1	0

very difficult to get a good winter with a December average of 40+

Just picking through this list from bottom to top the notable ones are 1957-58, 2014-15, 1982-83, 2015-16.  Some of these were one big snowstorm winters like 1982-83 and 2015-16.  2014-15 was a real standout because of how cold it got from Jan 20 through Mar 20.   And it was the only non strong el nino out of the 4, as a matter of fact it wasn't an el nino at all.  Was 1891-92 snowy?  I'm not familiar with what happened that winter, but it looks like it was the only 1800s winter that had a December average of 40+