December 2021

[psv88]

2 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Ironically, this is Seattle winter weather

 

40F Mist at moment

This is the most miserable weather possible. The counting crows had it right…it’s been a long December…

[Stormlover74]

35 minutes ago, psv88 said:

This is the most miserable weather possible. The counting crows had it right…it’s been a long December…

It really is the worst. The raw air is just hanging there when you step outside

[LoboLeader1]

This weather is down right depressing, would not mind taking a taking a sunny 60 degree day over this crap.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

It really is the worst. The raw air is just hanging there when you step outside

why cant we just get a strong SE ridge to keep this shit blocked off to the west, I'd much rather have 65 and sunny.

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

It will be cloudy with some periods of light rain today. High temperatures will likely reach mainly the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 45°

Newark: 47°

Philadelphia: 52°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 41.1°; 15-Year: 42.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 41.6°; 15-Year: 42.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 42.9°; 15-Year: 43.9°

The remainder of December will see above normal temperatures. New Year’s Day looks unseasonably warm.

We just want a strong SE ridge to keep this crap weather out of here. Don

 

[LibertyBell]

On 12/28/2021 at 1:45 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Chicago has now picked up its first measurable snowfall of the season. This is the latest such snowfall on record. The progression of the record latest first such snowfall is: 11/25/1884, 12/1/1890, 12/2/1904, 12/5/1909, 12/7/1914, 12/12/1946, 12/16/1965, 12/20/2012, and 12/28/2021.

They missed their longest snowless period by 3 days

 

[Roger Smith]

Here's an update from winter ... the odd thing is that our super-cold spell is exactly six months after the heat dome, and temperature anomalies are cancelling out. We were in the worst part of the heat dome on June 30th, with a max here of 112 F. Today it was -5 F at sunrise and it hasn't warmed up much from that. Some high cloud layers are keeping the nights from dropping lower but the daytime readings are probably close to all-time records for this relatively mild part of the southern interior of BC (the Columbia valley). Wind chills are tolerable as wind speeds have been in the 10-20 mph range here. Some coastal inlets have had near hurricane force wind gusts from the outflow winds. 

Where they had the severe flooding a month ago, east of Vancouver, the landscape is now frozen solid and under a foot of snow. I wish I could give this a drop-kick through the goal posts of the central plains states to give you folks a taste, the problem is that getting cold in BC and the northeast US at the same time takes a very unusual configuration of the jet stream that we rarely see. The more normal teleconnection with a large cold anomaly over this region is a southwest flow into the eastern US. 

If the cold seeps further south it can get even more extreme, the classic example is mid-January of 1932 when it snowed at low elevations in LA while New York and Toronto were setting warmth records. Also in Jan 1950 our coldest month, NYC had its warmest January day (72F, later tied in 2007) and three separated intervals of record warmth. It did turn wintry for a time in late Feb 1950 when the cold relented over the west. 

[donsutherland1]

A very warm December is now nearing its conclusion. The remaining days of the month will be generally warmer than normal. New Year's Day could be unseasonably mild.

In the South, more near record and record heat prevailed. Preliminary records included:

Atlanta: 74° (old record: 72°, 1984)
Baton Rouge: 83° (old record: 79°, 1973, 1974, and 1984)
Birmingham: 77° (old record: 75°, 1984)
Charleston, SC: 80° (old record: 79°, 1984 and 2015)
Galveston: 81° (old record: 75°, 1889) ***14th record-breaking or tying temperature of the month***
Houston: 84° (old record: 81°, 1984)
Jackson: 83° (old record: 79°, 1984 and 1990)
Meridian, MS: 84° (old record: 79°, 1983) ***Tied December Record***
Mobile: 81° (old record: 78°, 1971 and 1974)
New Orleans: 81° (tied record set in 1974)
Pensacola: 81° (tied record set in 1974)
Wilmington, NC: 80° (tied record set in 1984)

In addition, Houston recorded its 16th 80° day of this month. The old December record was 10 days, which was set in 2012. Houston also recorded its 6th consecutive 80° day, which broke the December record of 5 consecutive days. The old record was set during December 3-7, 1998 and tied during December 24-28, 2016. Houston is on track to finish with a monthly mean temperature near 67.8°. That would demolish the longstanding December mark of 64.4° from 1933. It would also be high enough to tie 1909 as the 3rd warmest November on record.

January will very likely commence with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°).

The latest guidance suggests that temperatures could head toward seasonal levels and then below seasonal levels as the first week of January progresses. The coldest air will likely remain confined to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and western and central Canada. No severe cold is likely through at least the first week of January. Afterward, the cold could try to press farther south into at least the northern Middle Atlantic and Ohio Valley regions. The colder pattern could last for two or perhaps three weeks before it breaks down. Thus, it could begin to break down sometime in the January 15-20 timeframe.    

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +12.04 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.556 today.

On December 27 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.565 (RMM). The December 26-adjusted amplitude was 2.183 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.6° (4.5° above normal). That would tie 2021 with 2006 as the 4th warmest December on record.

 

[LoboLeader1]

41 here this AM with areas of dense fog. 

[CIK62]

The last 2 days of December are averaging  47degs.(44/50), or +14>>>+11 nowadays.

Month to date is  43.4[+4.1].      December should end at  44.0[+4.9].

Reached 49 here yesterday.

Today:  48-50, wind mostly s., cloudy.

46*(93%RH) here at 6am.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly cloudy with some showers today. High temperatures will likely reach mainly the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 48°

Newark: 50°

Philadelphia: 52°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 40.9°; 15-Year: 41.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 41.4°; 15-Year: 42.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 42.7°; 15-Year: 43.8°

2021 will conclude on a mild note and 2022 will begin with unseasonable warmth.

[psv88]

another miserable day

[the_other_guy]

Meanwhile at Hunter Mountain…foggy mushy chilly

[bluewave]

This is the 2nd warmest December so far at Newark and Islip. NYC is sitting in 5th place with a few days to go. You can see how the majority of the top 10 warmest Decembers have occurred since the late 90s.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015	49.8	0
2	2021	44.2	2
3	2001	43.5	0
4	2006	43.0	0
5	1982	42.8	0
6	2011	42.5	0
7	1990	42.2	0
8	1998	41.8	0
9	1994	41.4	0
10	1971	41.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015	48.4	0
2	2021	41.3	2
3	2001	41.2	0
-	1984	41.2	0
4	2006	41.1	0
5	2012	40.5	0
-	2011	40.5	0
6	1982	40.1	0
-	1971	40.1	0
7	1998	40.0	0
8	1990	39.9	0
9	1994	39.7	0
10	2014	39.6	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015	50.8	0
2	2001	44.1	0
3	1984	43.7	0
4	2006	43.6	0
5	2021	43.4	2
6	2011	43.3	0
7	1998	43.1	0
8	1982	42.7	0
9	1990	42.6	0
10	1891	42.5	0

[psv88]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is the 2nd warmest December so far at Newark and Islip. NYC is sitting in 5th place with a few days to go. You can see how the majority of the top 10 warmest Decembers have occurred since the late 90s.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015	49.8	0
2	2021	44.2	2
3	2001	43.5	0
4	2006	43.0	0
5	1982	42.8	0
6	2011	42.5	0
7	1990	42.2	0
8	1998	41.8	0
9	1994	41.4	0
10	1971	41.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015	48.4	0
2	2021	41.3	2
3	2001	41.2	0
-	1984	41.2	0
4	2006	41.1	0
5	2012	40.5	0
-	2011	40.5	0
6	1982	40.1	0
-	1971	40.1	0
7	1998	40.0	0
8	1990	39.9	0
9	1994	39.7	0
10	2014	39.6	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015	50.8	0
2	2001	44.1	0
3	1984	43.7	0
4	2006	43.6	0
5	2021	43.4	2
6	2011	43.3	0
7	1998	43.1	0
8	1982	42.7	0
9	1990	42.6	0
10	1891	42.5	0

Holycrap 2015!

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Holycrap 2015!

DFW just had their version of 2015 in our area beating the next warmest December by more than 7°.

 

Time Series Summary for Dallas-Fort Worth Area, TX (ThreadEx) - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	61.3	2
2	1933	54.0	0
3	2015	53.6	0
4	1970	53.5	0
5	1965	52.8	0

 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This is the 2nd warmest December so far at Newark and Islip. NYC is sitting in 5th place with a few days to go. You can see how the majority of the top 10 warmest Decembers have occurred since the late 90s.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015	49.8	0
2	2021	44.2	2
3	2001	43.5	0
4	2006	43.0	0
5	1982	42.8	0
6	2011	42.5	0
7	1990	42.2	0
8	1998	41.8	0
9	1994	41.4	0
10	1971	41.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015	48.4	0
2	2021	41.3	2
3	2001	41.2	0
-	1984	41.2	0
4	2006	41.1	0
5	2012	40.5	0
-	2011	40.5	0
6	1982	40.1	0
-	1971	40.1	0
7	1998	40.0	0
8	1990	39.9	0
9	1994	39.7	0
10	2014	39.6	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015	50.8	0
2	2001	44.1	0
3	1984	43.7	0
4	2006	43.6	0
5	2021	43.4	2
6	2011	43.3	0
7	1998	43.1	0
8	1982	42.7	0
9	1990	42.6	0
10	1891	42.5	0

The scary thing is how mundane this feels. Everyone is just accustomed to the new normal which I guess is good if we're able to adapt so quickly. 

However these new normals will also be responsible for devastating weather & ecological events in the future. 

Also if we ever had another top 5-10 cold December or January people would go nuts. 

[bluewave]

51 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The scary thing is how mundane this feels. Everyone is just accustomed to the new normal which I guess is good if we're able to adapt so quickly. 

Yeah, that’s exactly what a recent study found.

https://www.pnas.org/content/116/11/

However, human evaluation of weather as either normal or abnormal will also be influenced by a range of factors including expectations, memory limitations, and cognitive biases. Here we show that experience of weather in recent years—rather than longer historical periods—determines the climatic baseline against which current weather is evaluated, potentially obscuring public recognition of anthropogenic climate change.

 

[jm1220]

57 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The scary thing is how mundane this feels. Everyone is just accustomed to the new normal which I guess is good if we're able to adapt so quickly. 

However these new normals will also be responsible for devastating weather & ecological events in the future. 

Also if we ever had another top 5-10 cold December or January people would go nuts. 

Meanwhile Seattle had another decent snow event today. Record snow in the Sierras. Hopefully somehow this Nina can dissipate and we can get a strong Nino next winter to knock the Pacific into a new pattern without the insane PAC jet and -PNA. Totally sick of it. 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, psv88 said:

another miserable day

sun's out here

 

**** it I want 70 and sunny now

 

[Roger Smith]

With a day and a bit left to go this is the new state of play for 2021 among the top ten years for total precip (NYC):

Rank __ YEAR ___ TOTAL PRECIP 

_ 01 ____ 1983 ____ 80.56"

_ 02 ____ 2011 ____ 72.81"

_ 03 ____ 1972 ____ 67.03"

_ 04 ____ 2018 ____ 65.55"

_ 05 ____ 1989 ____ 65.11"

_ 06 ____ 2007 ____ 61.67" (2021 needs 1.94"to tie)

_ 07 ____ 1975 ____ 61.21" (2021 needs 1.48" to tie)

_ 08 ____ 1990 ____ 60.92" (2021 needs 1.19" to tie)

_ 09 ____ 2006 ____ 59.89" (2021 needs 0.16" to tie)

 

_ 10 ____ 2021 ____ 59.73" (to 4pm Dec 30)

------------------------------

Will update this although the models don't show very much additional rainfall potential before midnight 31st, if you could add the rain on Jan 1st then it might at least get to 9th, but without that it would probably stay just shy of 2006 in 10th place. 

-------------------------------

Memories of the mildest NYE-NYD 1965-66: As you probably guessed I am fairly ancient and was a teenager then, and (from home near Toronto) visiting relatives who were then living in Rahway, NJ over the holiday week. It was very mild on Christmas Eve and Day also, mid-50s at least.

Records were set on both Dec 31 1965 (63F) and Jan 1 1966 (62F) and that temperature was probably observed at midnight as I recall it was thundering and lightning outside right around New Years Eve at that moment in time. I have the vague recollection of it being closer to 70F than that, perhaps it was a few degrees warmer over there than at the Park. The record high mins for both days were also set (51F Dec 31 and 52F Jan 1). That 52F on Jan 1 1966 was probably towards late evening, the overnight "low" was probably closer to 60 F. 

Looking at my data base I see that the six warmest NYE max temps are 1965 (63F), 1932 (62F), 1992 (61F) and 1895, 1936, 1990 (all 60F). The warmest NYD temps are 1966 (62F), 1919 (61F), 1973,1979,2005 (all 60F), and 1885 (59F). More recently, 58F in 2019 tied by 1876. 

No reason it couldn't be warmer though, Jan 2 1876 had 68F for a record high and Dec 29 1984 was 70F. 

Looks like 1884-85 had a similar situation to 1965-66 as the high on Dec 31 1884 was 58F. 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

2021 will end with mild conditions. 2022 will begin with more unseasonable warmth. But a turn toward cooler weather lies ahead in the medium-range.

In the South, more near record and record heat prevailed. Preliminary records included:

Albany, GA: 84° (old record: 80°, 1984)
Baton Rouge: 82° (old record: 81°, 1971 and 1984)
Galveston: 80° (old record: 75°, 1971 and 2020)
Greenwood, MS: 79° (old record: 77°, 1990)
Jackson: 81° (old record: 80°, 1923 and 1984)
Lake Charles, LA: 81° (old record: 80°, 1934 and 1964)
Mobile: 82° (old record: 79°, 1971 and 1974)
New Orleans: 84° (old record: 81°, 1990)
Pensacola: 81° (old record: 77°, 1971, 1974, and 1996)

In addition, Houston recorded its 17th 80° day of this month. The old December record was 10 days, which was set in 2012. Houston also recorded its December record 7th consecutive 80° day. The old record of 5 consecutive days was set during December 3-7, 1998 and tied during December 24-28, 2016. Houston is on track to finish with a monthly mean temperature near 67.8°. That would demolish the longstanding December mark of 64.4° from 1933. It would also be high enough to tie 1909 as the 3rd warmest November on record.

January will very likely commence with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°).

The latest guidance suggests that temperatures could head toward seasonal levels and then below seasonal levels as the first week of January progresses. The coldest air will likely remain confined to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and western and central Canada. No severe cold is likely through at least the first week of January. Afterward, the cold could press farther south into at least the northern Middle Atlantic and Ohio Valley regions. The colder pattern could last for two or perhaps three weeks before it breaks down. Thus, it could begin to break down sometime in the January 15-20 timeframe.    

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +15.26 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.158 today.

On December 28 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.309 (RMM). The December 27-adjusted amplitude was 2.565 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.6° (4.5° above normal). That would tie 2021 with 2006 as the 4th warmest December on record.

 

[stemwinder]

8 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

***

***

***

Records were set on both Dec 31 1965 (63F) and Jan 1 1966 (62F) and that temperature was probably observed at midnight as I recall it was thundering and lightning outside right around New Years Eve at that moment in time. I have the vague recollection of it being closer to 70F than that, perhaps it was a few degrees warmer over there than at the Park. The record high mins for both days were also set (51F Dec 31 and 52F Jan 1). That 52F on Jan 1 1966 was probably towards late evening, the overnight "low" was probably closer to 60 F. 

Looking at my data base I see that the six warmest NYE max temps are 1965 (63F), 1932 (62F), 1992 (61F) and 1895, 1936, 1990 (all 60F). The warmest NYD temps are 1966 (62F), 1919 (61F), 1973,1979,2005 (all 60F), and 1885 (59F). More recently, 58F in 2019 tied by 1876. 

No reason it couldn't be warmer though, Jan 2 1876 had 68F for a record high and Dec 29 1984 was 70F. 

Looks like 1884-85 had a similar situation to 1965-66 as the high on Dec 31 1884 was 58F. 

 

 

Mercifully, if I remember correctly, the 1965-6 records were set at the beginning of a long NYC subway strike,  and some people were able to walk to work in the mild weather.

[LoboLeader1]

High of 46 here today.

[Roger Smith]

Interesting to see that the previous Texas records were in 1933 because that was actually quite a cold month in the northeastern US and was followed by a near normal January and one of the coldest Februaries on record in 1934. The ridge must have been quite a bit narrower in 1933 than it has been this past month. Nov 1933 was also a cold month like it was to some extent this year. 

[CIK62]

The last day of December is averaging  49degs.(45/53), or +15>>>+12 nowadays.

Month to date is  43.5[+4.3].     December will end at  43.7[+4.6].

Today: 53-55, wind w. to s., rain by early Sat. AM.

First 7 days of January are already 38/50 = 44, or +10>>>+8 nowadays.

50*(95%RH) here at 6am.{was 49* at 3am}.    52* at 11am.

[LoboLeader1]

46 here as of 6:45 this AM. Mid 60's progged for New Years day.

[bluewave]

Several stations will finish 2021 in top 5 warmest years. You can see how many top 10 warmest there have been in recent years.  The minimum temperature for the year was also among the warmest on record.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	57.9	1
2	2012	57.8	0
3	1990	57.5	0
4	2020	57.3	0
-	2011	57.3	0
5	2016	57.2	0
-	1998	57.2	0
6	2010	57.0	0
-	2006	57.0	0
-	1973	57.0	0
7	1991	56.9	0
8	2002	56.5	0
-	1993	56.5	0
9	2017	56.4	0
10	1999	56.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2012	55.2	0
2	1998	55.0	0
3	2020	54.9	0
4	2021	54.7	1
-	2016	54.7	0
5	1999	54.3	0
6	2017	54.2	0
-	2011	54.2	0
-	1991	54.2	0
-	1990	54.2	0
7	2010	54.0	0
8	2006	53.9	0
9	2018	53.7	0
10	2002	53.6	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2002	18	0
2	2021	16	1
3	1949	15	0
-	1937	15	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	13	1
-	2020	13	0
-	2006	13	0

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly cloudy with some showers today. It will be unseasonably mild. High temperatures will likely reach mainly the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 52°

Newark: 55°

Philadelphia: 57°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 40.7°; 15-Year: 41.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 41.2°; 15-Year: 42.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 42.5°; 15-Year: 43.6°

2022 will begin with unseasonable warmth.

[the_other_guy]

Already closing in on 50F with brilliant sunshine.

 

What a miserable month for winter lovers. Stick a fork in it