December 2021

[CIK62]

The las t 4 days of December are averaging  45degs.(41/49),or +11>>>+8 nowadays.

Month to date is  43.5[+4.0].      December should end near. 43.7[+4.6].

Reached 41 here yesterday.

Today: 48-50, wind n. to e., cloudy, breaks then rain late.

Some accidental cold Jan. 03,04,05 and again Jan. 09......?????,     Remember Dec. 20 was once when real cold was to start?

40*(99%RH) here at 6am.      46* at Noon.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Early sunshine will give way to increasing clouds. Light rain and mixed precipitation could develop during the evening or night. High temperatures will likely reach mainly the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 50°

Newark: 53°

Philadelphia: 53°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 41.3°; 15-Year: 42.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 41.8°; 15-Year: 42.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 43.1°; 15-Year: 44.1°

The remainder of December will see above normal temperatures.

In the Midwest, Chicago could pick up its first measurable snowfall of winter 2021-22 today.

[bluewave]

Some of the warmest December minimum temperatures on record around the region this month.  POU recorded the 3rd warmest minimum. Only the 5th time that HPN didn’t drop below 20°. It was also the 5th time that NYC didn’t drop below 25°. Many of the top 5  warmest were in recent years. 
 

Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015	24	0
2	1996	18	0
3	2021	16	4
-	2014	16	0
-	2006	16	0
4	2011	14	0
-	1974	14	0
-	1957	14	0
5	2018	13	0
-	1984	13	0
-	1972	13	0

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015	28	0
2	2012	24	0
3	2021	20	5
-	2014	20	1
-	1984	20	0
4	2018	19	1
-	1997	19	8
-	1996	19	8
-	1974	19	0
5	2011	18	0
-	2001	18	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015	34	0
2	2012	28	0
3	1974	26	0
4	2021	25	4
-	1984	25	0
5	2018	24	0
-	2014	24	0
-	1908	24	0

[MJO812]

[Stormlover74]

Ewr has still not reached 1" of rain this month and their last day with more than .25" was 11/13

[SnoSki14]

What a torchy rest of the week. 50s and even 60+ readings.

Winter is dead until further notice

[Dark Star]

11 hours ago, Franklin0529 said:

Here's a pic out my front door in highlands new Jersey, basically sandy hook.  Boxing day 2010, 33" that day

Bayville NJ, Sandy has since taken the house away...

[the_other_guy]

15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

What a torchy rest of the week. 50s and even 60+ readings.

Winter is dead until further notice

It was never going to be cold this week.

 

lots of people talking themselves into a pattern change 2 weeks out

 

that is why the January thread is already 5, YES 5, pages long on Dec 28

 

They will be disappointed next week again…just like they were last week. Looks like some intermittent seasonal temps between spikes of 50s. 
 

It is a west year. They need it. And frankly, we need some dry months

[bluewave]

We can add one of the highest recorded 250mb jet stream winds  above Green Bay  to the list of extremes this month.

 

 

 

[White Gorilla]

27 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

It was never going to be cold this week.

 

lots of people talking themselves into a pattern change 2 weeks out

 

that is why the January thread is already 5, YES 5, pages long on Dec 28

 

They will be disappointed next week again…just like they were last week. Looks like some intermittent seasonal temps between spikes of 50s. 
 

It is a west year. They need it. And frankly, we need some dry months

Agree about the west needing moisture.  Lots of snow for the Sierras, good for water reserves. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

It was never going to be cold this week.

 

lots of people talking themselves into a pattern change 2 weeks out

 

that is why the January thread is already 5, YES 5, pages long on Dec 28

 

They will be disappointed next week again…just like they were last week. Looks like some intermittent seasonal temps between spikes of 50s. 
 

It is a west year. They need it. And frankly, we need some dry months

more likely than not we'll have a super el nino within the next 2 years

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Some of the warmest December minimum temperatures on record around the region this month.  POU recorded the 3rd warmest minimum. Only the 5th time that HPN didn’t drop below 20°. It was also the 5th time that NYC didn’t drop below 25°. Many of the top 5  warmest were in recent years. 
 

Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015	24	0
2	1996	18	0
3	2021	16	4
-	2014	16	0
-	2006	16	0
4	2011	14	0
-	1974	14	0
-	1957	14	0
5	2018	13	0
-	1984	13	0
-	1972	13	0

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015	28	0
2	2012	24	0
3	2021	20	5
-	2014	20	1
-	1984	20	0
4	2018	19	1
-	1997	19	8
-	1996	19	8
-	1974	19	0
5	2011	18	0
-	2001	18	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015	34	0
2	2012	28	0
3	1974	26	0
4	2021	25	4
-	1984	25	0
5	2018	24	0
-	2014	24	0
-	1908	24	0

the -nao is useless it would be better if it was a +nao right now and we were in the 60s and the 70s.  One, heating costs and two, 40s and 50s are useless and three, when the pattern does change the -nao time will probably be used up so we still wont get any snow.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

Early sunshine will give way to increasing clouds. Light rain and mixed precipitation could develop during the evening or night. High temperatures will likely reach mainly the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 50°

Newark: 53°

Philadelphia: 53°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 41.3°; 15-Year: 42.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 41.8°; 15-Year: 42.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 43.1°; 15-Year: 44.1°

The remainder of December will see above normal temperatures.

In the Midwest, Chicago could pick up its first measurable snowfall of winter 2021-22 today.

Chicago will just barely miss out on its longest period without measurable snow if they get any today.

Three more days is all they needed.

Weird to have Denver and Chicago at or near record levels in this category in the same year.

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, weathermedic said:

And that's with only 6.5 hours of sun:

Dec 27, 2021

9:54 AM

-- 4:26 PM

6 hours and 32 minutes

Speaking of which the sunrise yesterday was awesome and I can tell the days are getting longer because I no longer have to turn my lights on before 4:30!  Now I turn them on at 4:45

 

[the_other_guy]

36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Speaking of which the sunrise yesterday was awesome and I can tell the days are getting longer because I no longer have to turn my lights on before 4:30!  Now I turn them on at 4:45

 

Todays sunrise

[CIK62]

The next 6 days    41/49 = 44 or +11(+8 nowadays I suppose.)

[donsutherland1]

Chicago has now picked up its first measurable snowfall of the season. This is the latest such snowfall on record. The progression of the record latest first such snowfall is: 11/25/1884, 12/1/1890, 12/2/1904, 12/5/1909, 12/7/1914, 12/12/1946, 12/16/1965, 12/20/2012, and 12/28/2021.

[lee59]

47 the high here today

[donsutherland1]

A very warm December is now nearing its conclusion. The remaining days of the month will be generally warmer than normal. New Year's Day could be unseasonably mild.

Near record to record cold, along with snowfall, has continued to occur in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada.

Daily record low temperatures included:

Edmonton: -31° (old record: -28°, 1996
Medicine Hat, AB: -35° (old record: -13°, 2017)
Slave Lake, AB: -30° (old record: -23°, 2013)

In the South, more near record and record heat prevailed. Preliminary records included:

Atlanta: 75° (old record: 74°, 1971 and 1984)
Birmingham: 76° (tied record from 1984)
Corpus Christi, TX: 85° (old record: 84°, 1970)
Galveston: 82° (old record: 76°, 2016) ***New December Record***
Wilmington, NC: 79° (old record: 76°, 1874, 1889, 1916, 1971, 2008, and 2015)

In addition, Houston recorded its 15th 80° day of this month. The old December record was 10 days, which was set in 2012. Houston also recorded its 5th consecutive 80° day, which tied the December record that was set during December 3-7, 1998 and tied during December 24-28, 2016. Houston is on track to finish with a monthly mean temperature near 67.6°. That would demolish the longstanding December mark of 64.4° from 1933. It would also be high enough to rank as the 4th warmest November on record.

January will likely commence with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°).

The latest guidance suggests that temperatures could head toward seasonal levels and then below seasonal levels as the first week of January progresses. The coldest air will likely remain confined to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and western and central Canada. No severe cold is likely through at least the first week of January. Afterward, the cold could try to press farther south into at least the northern Middle Atlantic and Ohio Valley regions. The colder pattern could last for two or perhaps three weeks before it breaks down. Thus, it could begin to break down sometime in the January 15-20 timeframe.    

In the Midwest, Chicago picked up its first measurable snowfall of the season. The previous latest first measurable snowfall was December 20, 2012.

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +25.53 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.893 today.

On December 26 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.182 (RMM). The December 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.957 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.5° (4.4° above normal). That would rank 2021 as the 5th warmest December on record.

 

[LoboLeader1]

44 for a high here today, currently 42.

[eduggs]

With a very wintry looking radar signature, Binghamton (1600 ft) is at 32 with light snow 1mi and Ithaca (1100 ft) is 35F. Crazy warm relative to season and synoptic setup. It's like an April event.

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, eduggs said:

With a very wintry looking radar signature, Binghamton (1600 ft) is at 32 with light snow 1mi and Ithaca (1100 ft) is 35F. Crazy warm relative to season and synoptic setup. It's like an April event.

Syracuse only has 13 inches of snow 

[Allsnow]

27 minutes ago, eduggs said:

With a very wintry looking radar signature, Binghamton (1600 ft) is at 32 with light snow 1mi and Ithaca (1100 ft) is 35F. Crazy warm relative to season and synoptic setup. It's like an April event.

Meanwhile in Seattle it’s 28 with a wind chill of 19

[psv88]

Helluva way to run a pattern change 

[Brian5671]

Same ol pattern. I see we are back to mid January for the “change”

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Todays sunrise

from an airplane?

nice view!

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Same ol pattern. I see we are back to mid January for the “change”

we shouldn't believe any forecast of a pattern change until the pattern actually changes.

It's really no different from 2001-02

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be cloudy with some periods of light rain today. High temperatures will likely reach mainly the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 45°

Newark: 47°

Philadelphia: 52°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 41.1°; 15-Year: 42.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 41.6°; 15-Year: 42.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 42.9°; 15-Year: 43.9°

The remainder of December will see above normal temperatures. New Year’s Day looks unseasonably warm.

[CIK62]

The last 3 days of December are averaging  47degs.(44/50) or +13>>>+10 nowadays.

Month to date is  43.4[+4.0].   December should end near  43.7[+4.6].

Reached 49 here yesterday.

Today: 48-50, e. wind, cloudy, drizzle early.

NY'sD 58-62.     Somewhat colder by Jan. 03, or an illusion.

GFS has 7 50's in the next 16 days.    GEFS has no BN 5-Day Periods.     No evidence we can even beat the current season low of 25---yet some call this a better setup.     Wait till the sun-angle boys get into the act.     And January looks AN+ as month is winding down so a tan will be emerging.       This is a 10-Day winter----but which 10 days?

44*(90%RH) here at 6am{was 48 at midnite}.      Near 49* for a lot PM.

[the_other_guy]

Ironically, this is Seattle winter weather

 

40F Mist at moment