December 2021

[EastonSN+]

48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

December is our fastest warming winter month. That’s why the new climate 1991-2020 climate normals have the greatest winter temperature increase in December. The only colder than average December in the last decade was 2017. 
 

 

New 1991-2020 climate normals compared to 1981-2010

EWR

Dec….38.0….36.5….+1.5

Jan….32.8….31.6…..+1.2

Feb….35.1….34.6…..+0.5

Avg…..35.3….34.2….+1.1

 

NYC

Dec….39.1…..37.5….+1.6

Jan….33.7…..32.6...+1.1

Feb….35.9….35.3….+0.6

Avg…..36.2…35.1….+1.2

 

LGA

Dec…40.0….38.2….+1.8

Jan….34.4….32.9….+1.5

Feb….36.3….35.3….+1.0

Avg….36.9….35.5…..+1.4

 

JFK

Dec….38.3….37.7….+0.6

Jan…..32.8….32.7….+0.1

Feb….34.5….34.9…..+0.4

Avg….35.2….35.1…..+0.1

 

ISP

Dec….37.1…..35.6…..+1.5

Jan….31.9….30.6…..+1.3

Feb...33.3….32.8…..+0.5

Avg….34.1….33.0…..+1.1

 

BDR

Dec…37.0….35.4….+1.6

Jan….31.4….30.1….+1.3

Feb….33.1….32.4….+0.7

Avg…..33.8…32.6….+1.2

 

HPN

Dec…35.1….33.6….+1.5

Jan….29.8….28.3…+1.5

Feb….31.9….30.9….+1.0

Avg…..32.6….30.9…+1.4

Wow. Shocked 2014 was not below average. Like u said though our snow is more storm track based than temperature.

[psv88]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

48/29 her today. A bit above avg but nothing crazy like the talk earlier in the week on Twitter 

Who are you referring to? You seem to be arguing with yourself all day. Weird. 

[EasternLI]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wow. Shocked 2014 was not below average. Like u said though our snow is more storm track based than temperature.

December 2014?

That was an inferno IIRC 

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Who are you referring to? You seem to be arguing with yourself all day. Weird. 

He has ?

He is referring to the people calling for a warm day today. 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wow. Shocked 2014 was not below average. Like u said though our snow is more storm track based than temperature.

the shocking part was that 2014-15 was a backloaded winter....all that snow in Boston and they were canceling winter on New Years LOL

 

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

He has ?

He is referring to the people calling for a warm day today. 

Who specifically? I haven’t seen that at all. Today was an above average day but nothing out of the ordinary for Christmas in New York. I don’t recall a single poster calling for 70 today. Maybe I missed the posts. If I did, please bump them. 

[EasternLI]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the shocking part was that 2014-15 was a backloaded winter....all that snow in Boston and they were canceling winter on New Years LOL

 

Yeah, I remember lurking in NE and coastalwx was at the breaking point in January lol

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Yeah, I remember lurking in NE and coastalwx was at the breaking point in January lol

for a few years there it seemed like winters actually started on January 20th.

That place was a war zone that year.

FWIW I think 2014-15 was highly underrated for us, I found it to be much better than 2013-14 for us on Long Island.  2013-14 was good too but too many changeover events and I'd rather have the heaviest snows to our northeast rather than changeover.  February 2015 was the most Arctic like month I've ever witnessed here start to finish and March 2015 was my favorite March in a long time.

 

[EasternLI]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

for  few years there it seemed like winters actually started on January 20th.

That place was a war zone that year.

FWIW I think 2014-15 was highly underrated for us, I found it to be much better than 2013-14 for us on Long Island.  2013-14 was good too but too many changeover events and I'd rather have the heaviest snows to our northeast rather than changeover.  February 2015 was the most Arctic like month I've ever witnessed here start to finish and March 2015 was my favorite March in a long time.

 

I really enjoyed both. 13-14 felt like it was constant tracking. Just always something on the radar. I remember being worn out once that was over, but it was fun. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I really enjoyed both. 13-14 felt like it was constant tracking. Just always something on the radar. I remember being worn out once that was over, but it was fun. 

Let's see if we get that again in a few years.  2009-10 and 2010-11 and 2013-14 and 2014-15 maybe have been our best back to back combos.  Totally worth getting that skunk stinker 2011-12 in between.

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the shocking part was that 2014-15 was a backloaded winter....all that snow in Boston and they were canceling winter on New Years LOL

 

NYC Metro has been the only region in the I-95 corridor that hasn’t been able to surpass the 95-96 snowfall totals since 2010. We could have done it in 10-11 if the snows didn’t shut off at the end of January. The best snows missed to our NE in 14-15 and to our S in 09-10.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1	1996-04-30	75.6	0
2	1948-04-30	63.9	0
3	2011-04-30	61.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1	2015-04-30	110.6	0
2	1996-04-30	107.6	0
3	1994-04-30	96.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1	2010-04-30	78.7	0
2	2014-04-30	68.0	0
3	1996-04-30	65.5	0

 

Time Series Summary for Baltimore Area, MD (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1	2010-04-30	77.0	0
2	1996-04-30	62.5	1
3	2003-04-30	58.1	0

 

Time Series Summary for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1	2010-04-30	56.1	0
2	1899-04-30	54.4	0
3	1996-04-30	46.0	0

[NEG NAO]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Let's see if we get that again in a few years.  2009-10 and 2010-11 and 2013-14 and 2014-15 maybe have been our best back to back combos.  Totally worth getting that skunk stinker 2011-12 in between.

Think the 2021-2022 skunk stinker potential  candidate will be worth it.???

[donsutherland1]

A very warm December is now nearing its conclusion. The remaining days of the month will be generally mild with only some modestly cooler days.

It will be a different story in the Pacific Northwest where Vancouver picked up 2.7" (6.9 cm) of snow yesterday. Near record to record cold, along with snowfall, is possible during the closing days of December in such cities as Portland, Seattle, and Vancouver. Already, Dease Lake, BC set a daily record low temperature with a reading of -40° (old record: -28°, 2012).

In the South, numerous record high temperatures were toppled. Records included:

Asheville, NC: 71° (old record: 67°, 1904, 1944, 1955, and 2015)
Dallas-Fort Worth: 82° (old record: 80°, 2016)
Evansville, IN: 72° (old record: 68°, 1982 and 2019)
Galveston: 80° (old record: 76°, 2015 and 2016)
Jonesboro, AR: 75° (old record: 72°, 1922 and 1942)
Lexington, KY: 70° (tied record set in 1982)
Little Rock: 78° (old record: 73°, 1942)
Louisville: 75° (old record: 69°, 2019)
Paducah, KY: 74° (old record: 71°, 2016)
Pine Bluff, AR: 80° (old record: 77°, 1922)
Roanoke, VA: 69° (old record: 68°, 1964 and 1982)

In addition, Houston recorded its 12th 80° day of this month. The old December record was 10 days, which was set in 2012.

January will likely commence with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°).

The latest guidance suggests that temperatures could head toward seasonal levels and then periodically below seasonal levels as the first week of January progresses. The coldest air will likely remain confined to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and western and central Canada. No severe cold is likely through at least the first week of January. There are some hints that a milder pattern could begin to develop around mid-January.    

In the Midwest, through 4 pm CST today, Chicago has yet to receive its first measurable snowfall. The old record latest first measurable snowfall was December 20, 2012.

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +46.34 today. That is the highest value since January 15, 2014 when the SOI was at +50.17). Four days ago, the SOI's -27.14 value was the lowest value since June 20, 2020. The SOI's 4-day change of 73.48 is the second largest on record. Only the December 4-8, 1998 timeframe saw a larger increase when the SOI rose from -26.83 to +51.02, a change of +77.85. About two weeks later, a 19-day period of mainly below normal temperatures developed.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.420 today.

On December 23 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.294 (RMM). The December 22-adjusted amplitude was 2.514 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.2° (4.1° above normal). That would rank 2021 as the 6th warmest December on record.

 

[SnowGoose69]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

for a few years there it seemed like winters actually started on January 20th.

That place was a war zone that year.

FWIW I think 2014-15 was highly underrated for us, I found it to be much better than 2013-14 for us on Long Island.  2013-14 was good too but too many changeover events and I'd rather have the heaviest snows to our northeast rather than changeover.  February 2015 was the most Arctic like month I've ever witnessed here start to finish and March 2015 was my favorite March in a long time.

 

13-14 and 14-15 both produced an insanely high amount of snow despite bad AO/NAO indices.

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC Metro has been the only region in the I-95 corridor that hasn’t been able to surpass the 95-96 snowfall totals since 2010. We could have done it in 10-11 if the snows didn’t shut off at the end of January. The best snows missed to our NE in 14-15 and to our S in 09-10.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1	1996-04-30	75.6	0
2	1948-04-30	63.9	0
3	2011-04-30	61.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1	2015-04-30	110.6	0
2	1996-04-30	107.6	0
3	1994-04-30	96.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1	2010-04-30	78.7	0
2	2014-04-30	68.0	0
3	1996-04-30	65.5	0

 

Time Series Summary for Baltimore Area, MD (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1	2010-04-30	77.0	0
2	1996-04-30	62.5	1
3	2003-04-30	58.1	0

 

Time Series Summary for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1	2010-04-30	56.1	0
2	1899-04-30	54.4	0
3	1996-04-30	46.0	0

I still say we have a ceiling of 100 inches of snow here.  I've read old reports that both NYC and Philly got 100 inches of snow in a couple of years in the 1800s and as recently as the 1860s.

 

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Think the 2021-2022 skunk stinker potential  candidate will be worth it.???

Hopefully.  We might have to go through a transition average winter first though (like what 2012-13 was).  Going from 2001-02 right to 2002-03 wont happen unless we have a strong el nino next year.

 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I still say we have a ceiling of 100 inches of snow here.  I've read old reports that both NYC and Philly got 100 inches of snow in a couple of years in the 1800s and as recently as the 1860s.

 

 

Probably...in 09-10 we likely would have gone over 90 if even the 2/6 storm hits us and we had other close calls...10-11 also was on pace to maybe break the 95-96 record but the pattern just collapsed.

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A very warm December is now nearing its conclusion. The remaining days of the month will be generally mild with only some modestly cooler days.

It will be a different story in the Pacific Northwest where Vancouver picked up 2.7" (6.9 cm) of snow yesterday. Near record to record cold, along with snowfall, is possible during the closing days of December in such cities as Portland, Seattle, and Vancouver. Already, Dease Lake, BC set a daily record low temperature with a reading of -40° (old record: -28°, 2012).

In the South, numerous record high temperatures were toppled. Records included:

Asheville, NC: 71° (old record: 67°, 1904, 1944, 1955, and 2015)
Dallas-Fort Worth: 82° (old record: 80°, 2016)
Evansville, IN: 72° (old record: 68°, 1982 and 2019)
Galveston: 80° (old record: 76°, 2015 and 2016)
Jonesboro, AR: 75° (old record: 72°, 1922 and 1942)
Lexington, KY: 70° (tied record set in 1982)
Little Rock: 78° (old record: 73°, 1942)
Louisville: 75° (old record: 69°, 2019)
Paducah, KY: 74° (old record: 71°, 2016)
Pine Bluff, AR: 80° (old record: 77°, 1922)
Roanoke, VA: 69° (old record: 68°, 1964 and 1982)

In addition, Houston recorded its 12th 80° day of this month. The old December record was 10 days, which was set in 2012.

January will likely commence with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°).

The latest guidance suggests that temperatures could head toward seasonal levels and then periodically below seasonal levels as the first week of January progresses. The coldest air will likely remain confined to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and western and central Canada. No severe cold is likely through at least the first week of January. There are some hints that a milder pattern could begin to develop around mid-January.    

In the Midwest, through 4 pm CST today, Chicago has yet to receive its first measurable snowfall. The old record latest first measurable snowfall was December 20, 2012.

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +46.34 today. That is the highest value since January 15, 2014 when the SOI was at +50.17). Four days ago, the SOI's -27.14 value was the lowest value since June 20, 2020. The SOI's 4-day change of 73.48 is the second largest on record. Only the December 4-8, 1998 timeframe saw a larger increase when the SOI rose from -26.83 to +51.02, a change of +77.85. About two weeks later, a 19-day period of mainly below normal temperatures developed.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.420 today.

On December 23 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.294 (RMM). The December 22-adjusted amplitude was 2.514 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.2° (4.1° above normal). That would rank 2021 as the 6th warmest December on record.

 

drawing parallels to Jan 1999 Don? We had a snow event that month

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Probably...in 09-10 we likely would have gone over 90 if even the 2/6 storm hits us and we had other close calls...10-11 also was on pace to maybe break the 95-96 record but the pattern just collapsed.

that early February 2010 storm was maddening-- Toms River got two feet of snow and they're what, 50 miles from us?  Do you have any snowfall data for the Jersey shore from that winter that shows where the sweet spot was that winter that got directly hit by all the snowstorms?  The late Feb storm was the only one in which NYC jackpotted so I'm wondering if there was a spot  on the coast that did well in that storm as well as the early Feb storm too.

There was also a late Jan storm that dropped 6-8 near Toms River and we got nothing

 

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

13-14 and 14-15 both produced an insanely high amount of snow despite bad AO/NAO indices.

epo driven both winters?

 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

epo driven both winters?

 

 

13-14 was, 14-15 I think was a +PNA

[EasternLI]

95-96 was so odd from what I've seen. A strange la Niña that one. For a few reasons. 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

95-96 was so odd from what I've seen. A strange la Niña that one. For a few reasons. 

la ninas after el ninos may be our best winters of them all

 

[Allsnow]

I thought we had a shot at the record during the winter of 13/14 but march ended up cold/dry 

[EasternLI]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

la ninas after el ninos may be our best winters of them all

 

I do think there's some merit to considering the prior year enso to the following year. I'm sure that there are some sort of lag effects somewhere. And I'm usually bearish on a 2nd year la Niña lol. This year though, is a little different so far. So it's interesting. 

[donsutherland1]

23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

drawing parallels to Jan 1999 Don? We had a snow event that month

I think the only thing that can be drawn from then is that the SOI may have pointed to Pacific-related developments that suggest a cooler period will be forthcoming as is currently shown on some of the guidance.  Depending on the exact evolution of things, there might be some opportunities for snowfall.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

December 2014?

That was an inferno IIRC 

Sorry meant December 2013 I thought that was the polar vortex attack.

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I thought we had a shot at the record during the winter of 13/14 but march ended up cold/dry 

I remember being at 58 inches with 3 snowfall events in March lined up on the models. All three sunk south.

Only needed 10 to be second place of 67 from 02/03.

No way was going to take first place which was 92 inches in 95/96.

[MJO812]

Central Park would have  broken the snowfall record if Februay  and March were snowy

 

[SnowGoose69]

53 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

95-96 was so odd from what I've seen. A strange la Niña that one. For a few reasons. 

Obviously social media and the internet hardly were in large use then and winter forecasts were not a big thing.  However, there were actually quite a few Mets who were forecasting a big winter that year in Sep/Oct.  I do not recall the reasons why but there was alot of buzz going around that the NAO was going to largely be negative and we had a good chance for a huge winter.  The active tropical season may have been partly why they were hyping it