bluewave Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 42 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Sometimes I wish we could accelerate continental drift and close the Pacific off. Multiple 5 sigma North Pacific and East Asian Jet maxes is as extreme as it gets to start December. This really pumps the ridge out near the Dateline and Aleutians. So it keeps reinforcing the +EPO -PNA pattern. The Atlantic is of no help at this time with a strong +AO +NAO pattern. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2021 Author Share Posted December 1, 2021 We might have a brief window around the 8th where we might be able to capitalize . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 Pretty sure we'll bein the 50s/60s consistently. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 We have gotten used to the +PDO La Niña Decembers of recent years. But the December La Niña composite with a strong -PDO features a strong Aleutians Ridge like the models are advertising. This creates more of +EPO and -PNA pattern in December. The near record warm Atlantic SSTs will enhance the Southeast Ridge by mid-December. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 25 minutes ago, bluewave said: We have gotten used to the +PDO La Niña Decembers of recent years. But the December La Niña composite with a strong -PDO features a strong Aleutians Ridge like the models are advertising. This creates more of +EPO and -PNA pattern in December. The near record warm Atlantic SSTs will enhance the Southeast Ridge by mid-December. We got lucky with the +PDO Nina’s since 2000. This year….different story. Also great point about those torched SSTs along and off the coast. They are just going to feedback into the SE Ridge/WAR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 Already 50 at ewr...above the forecast high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 New York City's mean monthly temperature fell from 62.0° to 46.2°, a change of 15.8°. That change was 1.315 sigma above the historic (1869-2020) October-November change. Such an outcome has often precluded a severely cold December. The historic November-December change is 10.2°. The 23 cases with a 1 sigma or greater change above the October-November average saw an average 7.8° change in temperature during the November-December timeframe. In 65% of the cases, the change was smaller than the normal change. In 35% of cases, the change was 1 sigma or more below the historic November-December change. All of those 1 sigma cases would imply a December mean temperature of 40° or above. The change was 0.5 sigma or more above the historic November-December change in just 13% of the cases. The most recent year that saw a 1 sigma or more change from the historic October-November change was 2019. In December, the temperature fell 5.6° from November to 38.3°. In terms of seasonal snowfall, a larger than normal decline in the November-December period for the 1 sigma October-November cases was snowier than the more typical smaller decline. Smaller November-December Temperature Change: Mean Seasonal Snowfall: 23.5" Median Seasonal Snowfall: 19.7" Distribution: 40" or more: 13% 30" or more: 27% 20" or more: 47% < 20": 53% < 10": 7% Least: 4.8", 2019-20 Most: 57.4", 2013-14 n=15 Larger November-December Temperature Change: Mean Seasonal Snowfall: 39.0" Median Seasonal Snowfall: 32.9" Distribution: 40" or more: 38% 30" or more: 63% 20" or more: 75% < 20": 25% < 10": 13% Least: 11.5", 1954-55 Most: 75.6", 1995-96 n=8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: A moderator who weenies people What a guy It's all outta love, man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: We have gotten used to the +PDO La Niña Decembers of recent years. But the December La Niña composite with a strong -PDO features a strong Aleutians Ridge like the models are advertising. This creates more of +EPO and -PNA pattern in December. The near record warm Atlantic SSTs will enhance the Southeast Ridge by mid-December. Honestly, it's looking pretty dismal for the next few weeks (and possibly beyond) unless we manage to get some ATL blocking. True, it's only December 1st, but I'd really like to see this turn around sooner than later. I mean, that's about as bad a look as you can ask for if you like cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 46 minutes ago, snowman19 said: We got lucky with the +PDO Nina’s since 2000. This year….different story. Also great point about those torched SSTs along and off the coast. They are just going to feedback into the SE Ridge/WAR Those record warm Atlantic SSTs and the faster Pacific Jet allowed the ridge over our area to verify stronger than forecast today. Verification already 50° at Newark Old forecast was colder for today Record warm Atlantic SSTs https://mco.umaine.edu/gom_sst/ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2021 Author Share Posted December 1, 2021 Negative epo presses more on the gefs. Have to watch out for that for the storm near the 10th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 24 minutes ago, bluewave said: Those record warm Atlantic SSTs and the faster Pacific Jet allowed the ridge over our area to verify stronger than forecast today. Verification already 50° at Newark Old forecast was colder for today Record warm Atlantic SSTs https://mco.umaine.edu/gom_sst/ We currently have one of the strongest ENSO standing waves on record: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Negative epo presses more on the gefs. Have to watch out for that for the storm near the 10th. Interior northern New England may get something out of it….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2021 Author Share Posted December 1, 2021 44 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Interior northern New England may get something out of it….. Depends if we can get the Baroclinic line to drop south of our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 Ewr just jumped 7 degrees in 1 hour. Something has to be off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Ewr just jumped 7 degrees in 1 hour. Something has to be off i don't want to give fodder to the usual suspects but something is definitely wrong with the sensor now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 50 here as well-above Upton's forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 The Central Park leaves that were blocking the ASOS may have finally begun to drop. It’s near 50° now like JFK and LGA. All the stations are warmer than high temperature guidance today. 000 SXUS51 KOKX 011757 OSOOKX New York City Metropolitan Area Weather Roundup National Weather Service New York NY 100 PM EST WED DEC 01 2021 CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS Central Park MOSUNNY 49 24 37 VRB5 30.16F LaGuardia Arpt PTSUNNY 49 23 36 NW12 30.14F Kennedy Intl PTSUNNY 49 25 39 W14 30.16F 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 The Central Park leaves that were blocking the ASOS may have finally begun to drop. It’s near 50° now like JFK and LGA. All the stations are warmer than high temperature guidance today. 000SXUS51 KOKX 011757OSOOKXNew York City Metropolitan Area Weather RoundupNational Weather Service New York NY100 PM EST WED DEC 01 2021CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKSCentral Park MOSUNNY 49 24 37 VRB5 30.16FLaGuardia Arpt PTSUNNY 49 23 36 NW12 30.14FKennedy Intl PTSUNNY 49 25 39 W14 30.16F So cool to see that.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Negative epo presses more on the gefs. Have to watch out for that for the storm near the 10th. Fair amount of interest out there on the models today for this one especially from the city on to the north and west. The CMC / Euro have this one along with 7 members of the GEFS. This is by no means anything overly significant however it is something to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Those record warm Atlantic SSTs and the faster Pacific Jet allowed the ridge over our area to verify stronger than forecast today. Verification already 50° at Newark Old forecast was colder for today Record warm Atlantic SSTs https://mco.umaine.edu/gom_sst/ Evidence continuing to mount for a well above normal stretch coming up, the SPV problem also there: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 It's like night and day from where I live in the MHV to NYC metro and it's only about 75-80 miles to Manhattan. No leaves, already had a little snow last weekend, and it's gone down to 20* a few nights. Has Central Park hit freezing yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 Thinking that this west pacific Typhoon is messing with that west pacific mjo. For now anyway. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 Overnight, it will be mostly cloudy with some showers. Tomorrow will be unseasonably mild with temperatures rising well into the 50s in much of the region. Colder air will return on Friday. No Arctic blasts appear likely for the foreseeable future even as meteorological winter has now gotten underway. First measurable snowfall statistics for select cities: Allentown: Normal: December 6; 2020-21: December 9 Bridgeport: Normal: December 3; 2020-21: December 16 Islip: Normal: December 10; 2020-21: December 16 New York City: Normal: December 13; 2020-21: December 16 Newark: Normal: December 9; 2020-21: December 9; 2021-22: November 28 Philadelphia: Normal: December 19; 2020-21: December 16 Out West, Denver has yet to see its first measurable snowfall through November 30. The previous record latest first measurable snowfall occurred on November 21, 1934. Incredible warmth prevailed in parts of the West today. Preliminary record values included: Bismarck: 66° (old record: 62°, 1969) ***tied December record*** Denver: 73° (tied daily record set in 1973) Glasgow, MT: 66° (old record: 62°, 1925) Great Falls: 69° (old record: 60°, 1907 and 1969) ***tied December record*** Helena: 69° (old record: 60°, 2008) ***new December record*** Kalispell, MT: 61° (old record: 54°, 1925) ***new December record*** Missoula, MT: 66° (old record: 55°, 1972) ***new December record*** Omak, WA: 72° (old record: 57°, 1949) ***new December record*** Phoenix: 85° (old record: 83°, 1949) Rapid City: 72° (old record: 71°, 1973) Sheridan, WY: 76° (old record: 71°, 1995) Tucson: 85° (old record: 84°, 1926) ***tied December record*** Atlantic blocking (AO and NAO) is continuing to break down. As a result, temperatures will likely turn milder for at least a time. Although the first 10 days of December could average somewhat cooler than normal overall from a lag in the pattern response to the breakdown in Atlantic blocking, the first half of the month overall will likely average near normal or somewhat warmer than normal. Afterward, developments related to the EPO and AO could determine the outcome for much of the remainder of the month. For now, there remains uncertainty about the evolution of the teleconnections. However, it appears more likely than not (60% implied probability) that December will see a warm anomaly in the Northeast. Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter. The SOI was +10.74 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.646 today. On November 29 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.155 (RMM). The November 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.018 (RMM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 Correct me if I am wrong but todays highs are 49 in Central Park, 50 at Teterboro and 56 at Newark. If that is correct, maybe Newark is having instrument problems. I had a high of 50 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 Added CPC's monthly outlook for Dec: available for end of month comparison just to show how difficult it is to outlook beyond 2 weeks. I don't recall CPC's October outlook for our area???? Maybe someone has the graphic. Was it below normal Nov temps and below normal qpf? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 18 minutes ago, lee59 said: Correct me if I am wrong but todays highs are 49 in Central Park, 50 at Teterboro and 56 at Newark. If that is correct, maybe Newark is having instrument problems. I had a high of 50 degrees. Actually 58 was their high. 8 degrees higher than any other site in a 30 mile radius. Definitely bogus Tomorrow should be 65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 any snow showing on models? i want snow man this weather is boring i want snow now. currently 45 degrees expecting some showers in a few hours! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 48* was the high here today, current temp now is 40* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 2 hours ago, EasternLI said: Thinking that this west pacific Typhoon is messing with that west pacific mjo. For now anyway. I think that this wave break may be having a bigger influence. It eventually pumps the Aleutians Ridge. Then the -PNA trough digs into the Pacific Northwest boosting the Southeast Ridge during the 2nd week of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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