eduggs Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Most of us have a shot at maybe a dusting to an inch tonight through tomorrow morning. Then maybe something wintry on Monday. These could be our best threats for a while. Even if the Pacific ridge shifts east, the trof axis will still be pretty far west. Without a helpful NAO phase, we could be looking at a lot of cutters and rain. Most of us would probably be willing to roll the dice, but there's no guarantee that a "pattern change" will increase our snow threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: If it's not going to snow let it torch and be 60 degrees I have to agree. The worst for me are the teases and heavy rain to cold to more rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 3 hours ago, North and West said: . Mid 90s TWC graphics!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 59 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: close the shades for awhile enjoy the holidays with your familes/friends to the best that you can right now... Just dont turn on the news 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 even today does not feel cold it has been so long when the cold was so bad you were dying just to get home... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 No Comments Till the Time Limit is Up-------SuperMan Episode>>>>The Human Bomb And you thought we have problems. The EURO is even hotter here. Normal high is 56, but they get about 9/10 days of a least 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 OT but look at these totals in California! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: OT but look at these totals in California! now that's a white christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 49 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: OT but look at these totals in California! la nina is suppose to be bad for california very dry not this winter... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, nycwinter said: la nina is suppose to be bad for california very dry not this winter... The -PNA in record territory is bringing the storminess further south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Donner summit webcam snowing like crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 18 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Donner summit webcam snowing like crazy you got a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Only 77 more days till Meteorological spring. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 17 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said: Only 77 more days till Meteorological spring. Actually 68 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 what happened to the pattern change y’all discussed for the last few weeks? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 10 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: what happened to the pattern change y’all discussed for the last few weeks? Metfan? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: EPS weeklies continue the Aleutians ridge and - PNA for the whole run. The -AO slowly weakens over time. This could turn out to be one of the most impressive December into January -PNA patterns on record. Dec 27 to Jan 3 Jan 3 to Jan 10 Jan 10 to Jan 17 That's gonna be a historic winter out west. Really good for the drought situation. Highs in the teens possibly and single digits lows for Seattle. Below zero for Vancouver. This after 115-120F temperatures last summer. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 I thought everything was pretty well explained in here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 i mean we're getting snow showers tomorrow is that considered a white christmas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 27 minutes ago, EasternLI said: I thought everything was pretty well explained in here. It was 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 You guys think this is bad. The UK was expecting a cold shot for Christmas and maybe even some snow. And then had the rug pulled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Overnight, a system could bring a coating of snow north and west of Philadelphia, Newark and New York City. There is a small chance that one of these cities could pick up a measurable amount. It will then turn milder tomorrow. Afterward, a generally mild remainder of December lies ahead. It will be a different story in the Pacific Northwest. Near record to record cold, along with snowfall, is possible during the closing days of December in such cities as Portland, Seattle, and Vancouver. January will likely commence with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). The latest guidance suggests that temperatures could head toward seasonal levels and then periodically below seasonal levels as the first week of January progresses. The coldest air will likely remain confined to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and western and central Canada. No severe cold is likely through at least the first week of January. There are some hints that a milder pattern could begin to develop around mid-January. In the Midwest, through 4 pm CST today, Chicago has yet to receive its first measurable snowfall. The old record latest first measurable snowfall was December 20, 2012. Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was +8.46 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.419 today. On December 21 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.341 (RMM). The December 20-adjusted amplitude was 2.099 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.1° (4.0° above normal). That would tie 2021 with 1998 as the 6th warmest December on record. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 52 minutes ago, EasternLI said: I thought everything was pretty well explained in here. I think it was an echo chamber of wish-casting…but Im not the prediction expert others are. Very early on seemed like a tail chasing the dog 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Just now, jfklganyc said: I think it was an echo chamber of wish-casting…but Im not the prediction expert others are. Very early on seemed like a tail chasing the dog All the hopeful pattern changing tweets have stopped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 For those of you who long for the Weather Channel of old I present you this!!! https://battaglia.ddns.net/twc/ 9 hours ago, North and West said: . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 I think the scenario was laid out perfectly. And when circumstances arise they are noted and discussed. All of that discussion must have been overlooked. Or misunderstood. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The EPS weeklies were pretty consistent since early December in showing a strong -PNA continuing into January. But there was a quick flip to more of -AO in mid-December. So some people took this a good change. But several of us were pointing out that we needed improvement on the Pacific side to make things work. There were even a couple EPS runs that tried to push the ridge a little closer the the West Coast that backed off after only a few runs. While models can see an important signal like the -PNA long range, it verified much stronger the closer we got. The whole Aleutians ridge feedback process really took off. Dec 23 EPS run for Dec 27 to Jan 3 Dec 6 run for Dec 27 to Jan 3 I still think we get our snow chances once the NAO relaxes and allows a few cutters to get the colder air east. This would allow for weaker trailing waves to produce. The NAO is hurting us here. Hey if we can snow in Feb 2018 when it was 70 the day before...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 24, 2021 Share Posted December 24, 2021 1 hour ago, jfklganyc said: I think it was an echo chamber of wish-casting…but Im not the prediction expert others are. Very early on seemed like a tail chasing the dog I don't think the METS on the forums were wish casting when they said January held promise. The ensembles we're heading there. It just fell apart to some extent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2021 Author Share Posted December 24, 2021 46 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I don't think the METS on the forums were wish casting when they said January held promise. The ensembles we're heading there. It just fell apart to some extent. Exactly All the long range models had a nice December and that's typical for a lil Nina winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2021 Author Share Posted December 24, 2021 Nam has .5 here overnight for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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