December 2021

[thunderbolt]

2 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Those Pacific warm pool waters we talked about in here really are the driving force of all of this. Be interesting to see what does actually break this loop. Phase 7 until further notice until some event shows up to disrupt this. But phase 7 is very capable of strat disruption as per the literature. La Niña plus EQBO is also favorable for doing that. The -PNA is a complimentary component to this. So do we break the loop before enough damage is done? Or does the strat eventually break the loop? I'd be a little surprised honestly if the MJO were to make a push east with this going on. Thinking it needs an intervening force. Just not sure what ultimately happens with this or what that force will be. 

 

I noticed there’s a high pressure 1031 to 1038 just sitting off the coast of Washington and Oregon just sitting there spinning and not moving at all Practically the whole 18 Z run on GFS Until something kicks it out of the way i think we’re stuck in this pattern

[North and West]

It may take a SSW to shake up this very persistent ArL regime.
 
 

It’ll come for nice cold, wet, muddy late March and April. It seems to do that nowadays.


.

[EasternLI]

7 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

I noticed there’s a high pressure 1031 to 1038 just sitting off the coast of Washington and Oregon just sitting there spinning and not moving at all Practically the whole 18 Z run on GFS Until something kicks it out of the way i think we’re stuck in this pattern

Yup, that's a product of the situation we're facing. It's going to be interesting to see what actually breaks this down. I suspect it will somehow, but not sure how yet or when. 

[lee59]

I guess after a period of above normal precip and storm activity we were due for this dry boring stretch of weather.

[Stormlover74]

 

 

[qg_omega]

On 12/16/2021 at 7:43 PM, qg_omega said:

Likely will never make it, will go into COD before P8

[wdrag]

I may begin an thread for small snowfall in our area 04z-14z/24 including possible measurable NYC.  I'll rereview around 8A Thursday and decide then whether it's a regular thread or hold off til Thursday evening for an OBS thread. 00z/23 HRRR/RGEM/most recent 18Z/22 EC all favorable for NYC measurable by 7A Friday.  Marginal cause of possible melting between the time of the snowfall and the ob. Am done for the night.  

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Way out there but this isn't a bad look . 

What's bad about the COD?

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Another push of modestly colder air will bring down temperatures tomorrow, but a generally mild remainder of December lies ahead.

It will be a different story in the Pacific Northwest. Near record to record cold, along with snowfall, is possible during the closing days of December in such cities as Portland, Seattle, and Vancouver.

January will likely commence with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°).

The latest guidance suggests that temperatures could head toward seasonal levels and then below seasonal levels as the first week of January progresses. The coldest air will likely remain confined to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and western and central Canada. No severe cold is likely through at least the first week of January. There are some hints that a milder pattern could begin to develop around mid-January.    

In the Midwest, through 4 pm today, Chicago has yet to receive its first measurable snowfall. The old record latest first measurable snowfall was December 20, 2012.

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was -12.87 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.704 today.

On December 20 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.096 (RMM). The December 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.615 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.9° (3.8° above normal).

 

Don I noticed you mentioned Vancouver, Seattle and Portland in your post.  What are the chances that the extreme heat there this summer laid the groundwork for the very wintry weather to follow?  We've seen that happen in the east in years like 1993, 1995, 2010, etc.

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  39degs.(35/43), or +5>>>+2 nowadays.

Month to date is  44.6[+4.4].        Should be near  43.1[+4.2] by the 31st.

Reached 47 here yesterday.

Today: 36-38, wind nw. to w. to s., clouds increasing.

Barely reaches 32(lows) for the next 16 days.     But the GFS does not let that bother it---by showing 4 different snow events, totalling 2".     Snow in the air I suppose.

32*(50%RH) here at 6am      31* at 7am..     33* at 9am.     35* at Noon.      38* at 3pm.

[EasternLI]

Another thing about this upcoming pattern. Sure seems like another high end severe event(s) would be very possible, if not likely, somewhere in the Midwest at some point. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

13 hours ago, snowman19 said:

That’s the thing, I don’t think we break this feedback loop anytime soon, this is quite the self-sustaining system we have in place right now. IMO if you want to see a big shakeup, it would be a major SSW and there’s just no signs of that yet. In fact, it appears the SPV gets very strong the 1st week of January. I read the literature you spoke of and it’s definitely promising for a SSW, assuming we actually follow climo….but what is normal climo lately? Lol If we get into late January and we still have a strong SPV with no signs of a SSW and the same tropospheric feedback loop in place, it will not be good to say the least. Plenty for us to watch the next few weeks and good pickup on your part with those very warm waters in phase 7 helping to sustain the wave there. I’m sure you saw ENSO Region 4 is the coldest its been in many years, one of the coldest in over the last 40 years in fact….like you said it’s going to be very difficult for that MJO to propagate east, the cold waters are going to kill the T-storm activity: 

 

I’m starting to like 11/12 as an analog for this winter. We may be able to pull off a wintry week with a moderate even in the mid January, peak climo time frame. Then it’s just warm. 
The big takeaway about our new climate is, stuck patterns can suck just as much as they can be amazing. If your a snow lover in the PAC NW, this is a dream pattern. 

[wdrag]

Just waiting for the 06z EC before setting up a thread that will basically incorporate the OBS as well. You may need to be up early tomorrow morning to see the snow on the ground in NYC.  It's not guarantee but other than the dry NAM (it goes away in 2023--- and it did not perform well recently), I think just about all of us except the s coast of LI we will see a touch of snow on the ground tomorrow morning.

 

 

[EastonSN+]

49 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m starting to like 11/12 as an analog for this winter. We may be able to pull off a wintry week with a moderate even in the mid January, peak climo time frame. Then it’s just warm. 
The big takeaway about our new climate is, stuck patterns can suck just as much as they can be amazing. If your a snow lover in the PAC NW, this is a dream pattern. 

If u want to peg a snowless analog I think 01/02 would be closer as 11/12 was WAYYYYYYYY warmer for the entire continent. Completely different setup. This does bring up a point about snowfall though. Even though 01/02 was much colder than 11/12, I received only 4.5 inches of snow in 01/02 vs 11.5 in 11/12.

Goes to show that a warm winter can be snowier than a colder one!

One could argue that if we did not have the negative NAO we would have more snow by now, even if we had more 60 degree days as stronger cutters would not get shredded and weaker follow up waves can bring us snow like 2012. This year everything is shredded.

In the end losing either the RNA or negative NAO will yield better snowfall results. 

[EasternLI]

Just wanted to do a little illustration on why I didn't like the 11-12 analog specifically and still don't. If we take a peek at what was going on that year. You can see how the forcing was extending back into the IO. Very near the phase 3 location. That is shown in research to drive a +AO and that's exactly what happened. Game over. This bears some similarity to what happened in winter 19-20 with the extreme +IOD event. In hindsight, that was a major problem. 

This year, we have strong subsidence in the IO. So that's not allowing the same thing to happen this time. Some guidance is even strengthening this further. So with the forcing now further into the western Pacific instead, that leaves the door open for some better possibilities. Potentially. This is why I'm a bit more optimistic about this year than most. But we'll see, at least this keeps it interesting. For now. 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly sunny and cool today. High temperatures will likely reach mainly the middle and upper 30s and lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 37°

Newark: 40°

Philadelphia: 40°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 42.3°; 15-Year: 43.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 42.8°; 15-Year: 43.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 44.1°; 15-Year: 45.1°

Overnight, a weak system could bring a coating of snow to the north and west of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. There is a small chance that each of these cities could also pick up a measurable snowfall. Milder air will return afterward.

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don I noticed you mentioned Vancouver, Seattle and Portland in your post.  What are the chances that the extreme heat there this summer laid the groundwork for the very wintry weather to follow?  We've seen that happen in the east in years like 1993, 1995, 2010, etc.

 

There is some possibility. Some of the underlying drivers e.g., strong PDO- have remained relatively intact. The wave lengths have shortened. A La Niña has developed. A La Niña combined with a PNA- has often seen significant cold and snowy outcomes in the Pacific Northwest.

[MJO812]

The MJO doesn't want get out of 7

What a boring pattern for many people  ( Northeast , Great lakes , Mid Atlantic  .

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The MJO doesn't want get out of 7

What a boring pattern for many people  ( Northeast , Great lakes , Mid Atlantic  .

Yup. It spreads deeper into 7 but probably not enough to reshuffle the pac. I dont see io or 3/4 a anytime soon with the substance. 

[EasternLI]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we’ll probably need a  MJO phase 6-7 driven SSW to shift this pattern.

https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/1/657/2020/

3.3 Teleconnection with MJO

Before the SSW2018 central date, an active MJO in phases 6 and 7 with large amplitude prevailed in the tropical Indian Ocean and South China Sea (Barrett, 2019). It has been shown that MJO phase 6 and 7 events associated with OLR anomalies in the eastern Pacific can lead to weakening of the polar vortex through enhancement of upward-propagating wave fluxes towards Alaska and are often followed by SSWs (Schwartz and Garfinkel, 2017). In this section we assess the evidence that the MJO played a role in the onset of SSW2018. We chose for the analysis the ensemble forecast initialized on the 1 February, and as the amplification of the MJO phase 6 occurred prior to that date, it is expected that the wave-activity source associated with MJO has been included into forecast initial conditions, potentially leading to the more precise forecast of SSW2018. We find no evident link between the skill of MJO forecast and SSW2018: the ENS+ members do not predict MJO more correctly that the ENS− members (see Fig. A2). Based on that we focus on analysis of MJO teleconnections, testing the hypothesis that correct forecasting of MJO teleconnections was an important factor in simulating SSW2018

 

Yeah, I'm not sure what actually does break this loop or even when that occurs. But I do find myself absolutely fascinated to see what ultimately does it. As boring as the weather is locally, there's really some interesting things going on to watch. 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m starting to like 11/12 as an analog for this winter. We may be able to pull off a wintry week with a moderate even in the mid January, peak climo time frame. Then it’s just warm. 
The big takeaway about our new climate is, stuck patterns can suck just as much as they can be amazing. If your a snow lover in the PAC NW, this is a dream pattern. 

it's very similar to those bad years of 01-02 and 11-12 just a bit cooler.  Nov of both of those years was very warm, this year it was slightly cooler than ave.   The precip pattern is very similar-bone dry with no storms anywhere near us.

[MJO812]

Things are not looking good

 

This morning tellies have the NAO and AO heading positive in the 1st week of January  with the PNA staying negative.

 

The PNA  was positive  throughout most of the summer.  SMH.

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Things are not looking good

 

This morning tellies have the NAO and AO heading positive in the 1st week of January  with the PNA staying negative.

 

The PNA  was positive  throughout most of the summer.  SMH.

If it's not going to snow let it torch and be 60 degrees

[MJO812]

Having the MJO in 7 might not be a bad thing heading into January. It's horrible for us on December though. 

[North and West]

If it's not going to snow let it torch and be 60 degrees

.

[EastonSN+]

43 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Things are not looking good

 

This morning tellies have the NAO and AO heading positive in the 1st week of January  with the PNA staying negative.

 

The PNA  was positive  throughout most of the summer.  SMH.

I look at it as a positive. The current setup is shredding all incoming storms. Let the AO NAO go positive to cutters can pull down cold air from west coast, allowing for weaker trailing waves to give us snow.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I look at it as a positive. The current setup is shredding all incoming storms. Let the AO NAO go positive to cutters can pull down cold air from west coast, allowing for weaker trailing waves to give us snow.

That was also my thinking . We might get lucky that way especially if the MJO stays in 7 through January or go to 8.

[RippleEffect]

give it time by than it's going to change most likely. the rest of this year is done

[Brian5671]

close the shades for awhile enjoy the holidays with your familes/friends to the best that you can right now...

[RippleEffect]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

close the shades for awhile enjoy the holidays with your familes/friends to the best that you can right now...

great idea maybe if we get a bit more patient it'll pay off by new years