the_other_guy Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 46 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: We will have missed about three weeks of normal southern NY and southern New England ski season. Winter for most people is more than just watching snowfall. It is about actually enjoying winter sports and toys. The overnight lows have sucked and been way too warm to even make snow. Ski season has been a disaster thus far. We are just getting going now…as you said 3 weeks late 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Ski season has been a disaster thus far. We are just getting going now…as you said 3 weeks late Not just skiing, but also the snowmobiling season for up here in Upstate NY. The past several winters have been a disaster for the Snowmobiling industry in the Tug Hill region. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Finally crossed the 50” mark this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It’s tough to shift the Aleutian Block and deep -PNA once it becomes a self sustaining process. Paul Roundy gives a nice explanation of what has been going on. This is why we are seeing the record Aleutians Ridge and -PNA this month. So it’s no surprise that all the models continue this pattern into the long range. It will shift in 15-20 days.. the subsurface ENSO is not La Nina at all. The pattern is less about ENSO than longer term happenings. It might not be a deep +PNA, but we will see a brake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Not much to be optimistic about. Jan could see some action first half as cold tries to bleed further south despite unfavorable PNA. I do think mid-late Jan through mid Feb will be a torch as we lose blocking temporarily. However I expect blocking to resurface later on with the -PNA no longer acting as a deterrent late Feb & March. I'm expecting 30" most of which will come in late Feb & March. I would love to see 30", but I'm not sure we'll get there this year. I do agree that, assuming the current -PNA-driven pattern holds, the latter part of the season and the shortening wavelengths that it brings might present us with our best opportunities. Stanks that we're already pinning our hopes to that in December though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 La Niña self destruction countdown begins. For those who would like such things to occur. With an extended event ahead, this could be interesting for next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 For the record, no that does not mean I'm already moving on to next year. Seeing that strat disruption pattern on ensembles. If we get an extended time with that, not sure what that's going to do upstairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, EasternLI said: La Niña self destruction countdown begins. For those who would like such things to occur. With an extended event ahead, this could be interesting for next year. Good news is that El Nino will lessen the threat for hurricane development in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 1 minute ago, LoboLeader1 said: Doesn't necessarily mean el nino. Just means la Niña is likely not returning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 1 hour ago, jfklganyc said: Ski season has been a disaster thus far. We are just getting going now…as you said 3 weeks late Skied at Gore on Monday -- conditions were pretty good. Once north of Saratoga the ground was covered. Gore has been able to make a good amount of man made snow as well -- you can see it stockpiled on this trail below. I'm sure they'll have it all groomed out for the holiday week. IMG_3518.HEIC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1473679683774558223?s=20 I don’t know if this is good or bad I’m assuming it’s OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 It's interesting that east based la nina plus -PDO is a later season -NAO signal. I wonder if this phase 7 business plays a role with that signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Yeah, shades of 01/02-11/12-19/20 are definitely in the air. We really need a full scale pattern reversal. That might not happen until we have our next Nino. But your just not going to cut it with such a persistent -pna. I’m not the type to throw in the towel, but generally a rat winter shows itself early on. The signs were there for much of the fall for a potential rat winter. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 A lot of football spiking on the season. It's Dec. 22nd. I wouldn't be so sure, yet. -PNA is part of a pattern which can cause heavy damage to the PV. A pattern that could possibly set up for an extended period. If it goes off, would have an effect on February into March. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 1 minute ago, EasternLI said: A lot of football spiking on the season. It's Dec. 22nd. I wouldn't be so sure, yet. -PNA is part of a pattern which can cause heavy damage to the PV. A pattern that could possibly set up for an extended period. If it goes off, would have an effect on February into March. Too early to say ratter but the lack of precip remains a concern.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2021 Author Share Posted December 22, 2021 12 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: The signs were there for much of the fall for a potential rat winter. Winter is still young These calls always happen in December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: Too early to say ratter but the lack of precip remains a concern.... Part of the deal right now. You certain it stays that way until April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Winter is still young These calls always happen in December .....and are those calls always wrong???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Part of the deal right now. You certain it stays that way until April? Nope. It will change for sure but is it Jan or Feb? If we lose Jan it could get ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Just now, Brian5671 said: Nope. It will change for sure but is it Jan or Feb? If we lose Jan it could get ugly We should have a good idea what's going on by mid January I would guess. One way or another. But not yet IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 1 minute ago, EasternLI said: We should have a good idea what's going on by mid January I would guess. One way or another. But not yet IMHO. there's an old adage that says if the pattern doesn't show up by mid Jan it's not happening.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Blowtorch alert for February.. -PNA is a really tough correlation with Dec-PNA/La Nina. late Jan last year ran at 3std's-NAO, we might want to flip that this late Jan/early Feb. January is our month I think. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Here's an example on the 12z gefs. Here's the upcoming pattern. We know, it's not the best. Here's the upcoming pattern continuing. Here's what that pattern is doing higher up on this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2021 Author Share Posted December 22, 2021 Flakes for Christmas eve on euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 46 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Blowtorch alert for February.. -PNA is a really tough correlation with Dec-PNA/La Nina. late Jan last year ran at 3std's-NAO, we might want to flip that this late Jan/early Feb. January is our month I think. whole winter could be a torch if that -PNA is strong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: whole winter could be a torch if that -PNA is strong Which, given the endless warmth this December seems likely. You have your mid January saying…I have mine: Good winters don’t start with Decembers like this. Now you hope for a couple of large storms that save seasonal snowfall…but prolonged cold or “normal” winter conditions. Nah. And the dryness is also a concern 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 14-15 was a furnace December. Not calling for that, but that winter turned out fine. I've seen some fat squirrels this year too. Let me get the farmers almanac. Nope, we're porked, we had a full moon in August. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: there's an old adage that says if the pattern doesn't show up by mid Jan it's not happening.... Thats about right...its more or less the same for summer. If you don't see a pattern change by mid July its fairly rare August turns around...oddly enough both 2001 and 2002 saw exactly that with a full scale turnaround for August but you don't see it much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 25 minutes ago, EasternLI said: 14-15 was a furnace December. Not calling for that, but that winter turned out fine. I've seen some fat squirrels this year too. Let me get the farmers almanac. Nope, we're porked, we had a full moon in August. that had a big -EPO. We would need something like that to turn this around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 You guys have to see the decadal trend, 13-15 had a big NPH, Pacific coast High. We followed that with a Strong El Nino, then 7 years of -PNA. Everything since 2013 has happened repetitively/consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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