MJO812 Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: Nah, he knows better. He has been at this for 15 years. Its an act. I'm a bigger snow weenie than anyone. I guess getting view points from other forums are bad lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Number one rule about science… Leave your personal biases at the door and look at the data only. Climatology matters as well. Much of Canada and the arctic is also will above normal for this time of year as well right now. I do think the second half of winter will produce some. My initial call in November was for slightly above normal temperatures and near normal snowfall. I now think we will be firmly above normal considered 1/3 of met winter will have been a torch, but I still think we get close to normal snowfall (albeit I must admit I am nervous). 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 I hope MJO812 gets snow. Seems that the NAO trends are good this year, we've been negative 4/6 months. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 We can't even get a strong storm in this pattern . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Hard to dislodge this Aleutian piece balance of Dec. Threading the needle difficult as PNA dives and lack of source air. It's very hard to get E Canada HP in a pattern like this. Think this takes a bit of time to unwind. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Sometimes a December signal is so strong, that the models correctly see it from months away. The Euro seasonal back in October had this very amplified Aleutians Ridge, -PNA, and SE Ridge pattern. But even for a La Niña, this will be our first with close to 3 sigma block centered just south of the Aleutians in December. December verification so far October Euro seasonal forecast 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 hour ago, psv88 said: What he doesn’t realize is that it’s very irritating to all of us. I don't find it irritating. Probably because he's a lot kinder than his "mirror image". 9 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 The pattern is just stuck from the end of December into early January. Seattle and Montana are going to be icicles as the tpv moves over head 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The pattern is just stuck from the end of December into early January. Seattle and Montana are going to be icicles as the tpv moves over head Thats some serious cold out west. Pretty remarkable after the mega heat ridge over the summer. I expect some record cold & snows for those areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maureen Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 53 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: I don't find it irritating. Probably because he's a lot kinder than his "mirror image". AGREED. I swear I hope we get snow JUST for him! 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 55 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: I don't find it irritating. Probably because he's a lot kinder than his "mirror image". Agree. I have been reading his posts for 10+ years now and they’re harmless 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 2 hours ago, psv88 said: What he doesn’t realize is that it’s very irritating to all of us. Awwww no way. Anthony's eternal optimism is genuine and I envy it! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 42 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Thats some serious cold out west. Pretty remarkable after the mega heat ridge over the summer. I expect some record cold & snows for those areas. The record WPAC warm pool has turned into an extreme Rossby wave generating machine. Last summer it was the record ridge and heatwave over the PACNW. This month the record ridge is centered south of the Aleutians. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The record WPAC warm pool has turned into an extreme Rossby Wave generating machine. Last summer it was the record ridge and heatwave over the PACNW. This month the record ridge is centered south of the Aleutians. Need to shove that east and re-establish "the blob." We're really missing it! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Cold Pac NW first 5 days of January, last 14 times since 1967, flips in February (January composite is -NAO too). fwiw This is interesting because cold NW is associated with opposite pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 21 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Need to shove that east and re-establish "the blob." We're really missing it! Maybe we need another El Niño to change up the winter North Pacific pattern. The Super El Niño in 15-16 shifted the ridge axis west. It had been further east in 13-14 and 14-15. But the common denominator seems to be the record WPAC warm pool generating these giant stationary waves . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Again, this is what ENSO looked like the last 20 times we had cold NW in the first 5 days of january (since 1948) Subsurface ENSO > correlation to pattern than surface so this is what I'm thinking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 9 hours ago, bluewave said: Models continue in push back mode. The forecast colder pattern near the end of December is now warmer than the old run. This is the same thing that happened for Christmas from a week ago. It’s one of the problems with such a strong -PNA pattern. New run Old run No surprise there. The problem is the record PAC jet, severe -PNA and actually the -NAO block, it’s shearing everything to bits. This is going to continue unabated right through the 1st week of January, at the very least: Look how ridiculously dry The extended EPS is for the next 46 days: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 December 21st in Centereach, NY: The tree on the left is still mostly green, and the trees that have turned must’ve done so recently as the leaves are still hydrated, otherwise they would’ve blown off in the recent wind events. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 5 hours ago, bluewave said: This is all part of the interference from the La Niña standing wave. These RMM charts by individual component show what’s going on. Notice how several components are hanging back closer to the Maritime continent. The other issue is this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 8 hours ago, EasternLI said: IMO, it's this area of persistent convection north of Australia causing this persistent -PNA. So you would want some subsidence to push east from the Indian Ocean to tamp that down somewhat as the mjo moves east. That's what was happening on some of the better ensemble (eps & gefs) runs last week. Not so much currently. This is also a piece of the la Niña base state. So it's definitely a challenging proposition, especially with very warm water in this area. Just wanted to point that out for those wondering why that -PNA is there in the first place. Nice post. I know you warned about it before and have been very fair….but some people have to have to face the fact that the MJO may never makes it in to phase 8. I stated my reasoning for thinking it doesn’t a few times and you were very objective about it. You also don’t want to see IO convection start firing in mid-January, something some models are showing 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 We had about 40 last winter.We were at 60+ at MMU last year, so whatever drugs everyone’s on, please share with your friends. They’re expensive, you know.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Nice post. I know you warned about it before and have been very fair….but some people have to have the fact that the MJO may never makes it in to phase 8. I stated my reasoning for thinking it doesn’t a few times and you were very objective about it. You also don’t want to see IO convection start firing in mid-January, something some models are showing Thanks for the kind words. I'm on the search for a good pattern. However, I'm not going to let that cloud my judgment. That's pointless to me. All of your reasoning has merit. You bring up good points often. The only issue is the abrasive delivery at times. But it's all good. You're right, we don't really want to see that. That would end up +AO and with that Pacific that would be that. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Thanks for the kind words. I'm on the search for a good pattern. However, I'm not going to let that cloud my judgment. That's pointless to me. All of your reasoning has merit. You bring up good points often. The only issue is the abrasive delivery at times. But it's all good. You're right, we don't really want to see that. That would end up +AO and with that Pacific that would be that. its not the end of the world if there is 0 measurable snow this season, that would actually be historic and fun to see. It also considerably increases the odds for seeing a historic positive season in the next few years based on the last 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Maybe we need another El Niño to change up the winter North Pacific pattern. The Super El Niño in 15-16 shifted the ridge axis west. It had been further east in 13-14 and 14-15. But the common denominator seems to be the record WPAC warm pool generating these giant stationary waves . thats why I see people predicting an el nino for next winter and not just an el nino but a strong one (see main forum) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Big picture. The strat is up to bat next IMO. Probably hear some talk about it over the next 2 weeks. This current - NAO isn't going to last forever. We'll need a strat assist to keep the arctic favorable down the line. There's real potential there though, but mother nature is going to do whatever she wants. So we observe. Maybe we spin the ssw roulette wheel. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Thats some serious cold out west. Pretty remarkable after the mega heat ridge over the summer. I expect some record cold & snows for those areas. you see this often the locations that have record heat in the summer have record cold or snow in the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 3 hours ago, RippleEffect said: i actually seen tony call for snow showers in late may or some sh*t lmao. tony is number one weenie for a reason guys. i love this place it makes me so calm! His optimism is needed and appreciated by me. And I am sure many others feel the same. When I first came here I was younger and so enthusiastic about snow. I still love snow but I understand the patterns more now so I can adjust my expectations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The record WPAC warm pool has turned into an extreme Rossby wave generating machine. Last summer it was the record ridge and heatwave over the PACNW. This month the record ridge is centered south of the Aleutians. is that where the RRR is now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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