MJO812 Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 Epo stays negative on the EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Epo stays negative on the EPS any snow chances this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, RippleEffect said: any snow chances this week? Maybe some mood flakes on Christmas Eve 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Epo stays negative on the EPS We really need to get the MJO to 8 with this consistent RNA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 The US is on track for the 2nd warmest December behind 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The US is on track for the 2nd warmest December behind 2015. Wow. Didn't see too many forecasts for a super torch this month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: We really need to get the MJO to 8 with this consistent RNA. Euro has the MJO stuck in 7 which is good for January but not December. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Strange mjo modeling this morning. It's almost like this wave tries to get into phase 8. Dies out and a new one gets going in phase 7. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Wow. Didn't see too many forecasts for a super torch this month. The Euro seasonal had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 11 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Strange mjo modeling this morning. It's almost like this wave tries to get into phase 8. Dies out and a new one gets going in phase 7. Weird. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I don't even look at those. However, that one seems like a good approximation for today. I'm using VP 200 supplemented with 850 zonal wind for the most part. Those charts get wacky sometimes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 45 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Strange mjo modeling this morning. It's almost like this wave tries to get into phase 8. Dies out and a new one gets going in phase 7. Weird. The VP anomaly forecast for this week is a blend of phase 6 and phase 7. The GEFS has been really struggling with this. Notice how poorly it did with its forecast from a week ago. So it looks like the signal is more like a La Niña standing wave. This is where we sometimes get these interference patterns which can make the RMM charts very noisy. New forecast for this week Old forecast from last week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Eh, eps has been struggling too. I don't see this as an exclusively gefs thing. Otherwise, agree. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Eh, eps has been struggling too. I don't see this as an exclusively gefs thing. Otherwise, agree. All the models are struggling. Earthlight made a good post about how the blocking and the typhoon are making the models really inconsistent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 2 hours ago, bluewave said: It actually feels cold for a change. NYC down to 25°. But this is the 8th latest 25° or lower in NYC. This is 15 days late for NYC with the average first day on December 5th since 2010. Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 1974 03-25 (1974) 20 01-14 (1975) 20 294 2015 03-29 (2015) 25 01-04 (2016) 14 280 2012 03-06 (2012) 25 01-02 (2013) 22 301 2001 03-27 (2001) 24 12-30 (2001) 22 277 1990 03-08 (1990) 25 12-25 (1990) 22 291 1948 03-13 (1948) 17 12-24 (1948) 21 285 1998 03-13 (1998) 23 12-22 (1998) 22 283 1997 03-16 (1997) 25 12-22 (1997) 25 280 2021 03-22 (2021) 23 12-20 (2021) 25 272 We finally had a hard freeze! Are all the weeds and bugs finally gone?! Also was this LGA's first freeze and was this a hard freeze for them too (27 or lower?) Now winter really begins! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The Euro seasonal had it. What would it take to be super warm across the whole continent? Alaska, Canada and the CONUS too?! Has it ever happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: We finally had a hard freeze! Are all the weeds and bugs finally gone?! Also was this LGA's first freeze and was this a hard freeze for them too (27 or lower?) Now winter really begins! That's crazy that its your 1st hard freeze. It was 15 this morning and we have had a few mornings in the teens so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 If only we had northern stream help 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: What would it take to be super warm across the whole continent? Alaska, Canada and the CONUS too?! Has it ever happened? It is happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 22 degrees here this morning, coldest of the season by 1 or 2 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 19 was the low overnight here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 Snowflakes for many on Christmss Eve 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 We should watch the Christmas low Not too far off from snow here 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We should watch the Christmas low Not too far off from snow here stale cold air 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: stale cold air Cmc just came south also Plenty of time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 27 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Snowflakes for many on Christmss Eve That would be nice but if we get anything there is a decent chance it would be rain at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Cmc just came south also Plenty of time need a fresh supply of cold like we had yesterday/today. That airmass as depicted won't do much for most of us here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: need a fresh supply of cold like we had yesterday/today. That airmass as depicted won't do much for most of us here. Flakes would be fine on Christmas 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 Brian and snowman19 are back weenie people 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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