donsutherland1 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 2 hours ago, wdrag said: So, if I review this correctly, the southern stream is INACTIVE, lighter than normal flow along roughly 25-35N in the Pac through to the ATLC, but above normal speed Aleutians to the Canadian USA border. IF that's a correct read, I want to be looking for a strengthening of the jet near 30N, which if this were to eventually occur with a WAVE breaking ridge off the west coast, our chances for something in the southern stream would increase with eventual -NAO cold air damming (CAD) benefits. For now as I see it, we just cant tone down the strength of the short wave jet stream energy packets (500MB vorticity centers) in the northern USA. Fingers crossed that there is so much we don't know, that this pattern will eventually evolve-respond to permit at least 10" of seasonal snow in NYC and 25" out here in nw NJ. Those are my goals now... which I hope we can achieve by March 15 2022. I agree with you. I remain hopeful that we’ll have some snowfall opportunities. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 Gfs is once again different Some snow Christmas eve for NYC northward and the Christmas storm is also flatter . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is once again different Some snow Christmas eve for NYC northward and the Christmas storm is also flatter . it's coming 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 It’s now past mid-December. Yet, a lot still remains in bloom at the New York Botanical Garden: 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 hour ago, EasternLI said: Good evening ELI. My question, respectfully made, is which one is S19. As always …. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is once again different Some snow Christmas eve for NYC northward and the Christmas storm is also flatter . Would be nice to see some snow but its six day's away, many more runs, model comparisons and temps in the 40's would make for rain showers. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Coldest night of the season coming tonight with teens and 20’s for lows 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, WeatherFox said: Would be nice to see some snow but its six day's away, many more runs, model comparisons and temps in the 40's would make for rain showers. Yep 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Assuming this pattern locks in I'm expecting a very cold & snowy March. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 A stiff wind was drilling colder air into the region this evening creating mid-winter wind chills. Tomorrow morning could see the coldest readings so far this season. And then, winter will lose its grip on the region. Temperatures will moderate beginning on Tuesday. Temperatures will generally be near or above normal through much of the remainder of December. The final week of December could still see temperatures begin to turn colder as month comes to a close. No severe cold is likely. Afterward, if the small sample of cases where the MJO moved into Phase 7 at a high amplitude (1.75 or above) during the December 10-20 period, as occurred this month, is representative, the first 10 days of January could see below to perhaps much below normal temperatures. Support for such an outcome has increased on the recent guidance. Currently, the risk of severe cold at the start of January remains relatively low. There remains uncertainty concerning the magnitude and duration of the cold during the first 10 days of January. In the Midwest, Chicago has yet to receive its first measurable snowfall through 4 pm CST on December 19. Only December 2012 saw saw its first measurable snowfall after December 19 (December 20). Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter. The SOI was -2.13 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.250 today. On December 17 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.867 (RMM). The December 16-adjusted amplitude was 2.010 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.6° (3.5° above normal). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 For everyone saying calm down, if I am running a ski area south of Vermont, right now I am pretty worried about missing Christmas week. The overnight lows haven't even been cold enough for many of the local ski areas to even BEGIN making snow on the majority of their trails, let alone build a base up. Hopefully they can pump out a ton these next three nights to get some trails open for next week. Winter is not all just natural snowfall to most winter businesses, they actually NEED cold (aka seasonable). My wife said it is FREEZING today, and I said naw it's just seasonable haha. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 hard freeze coming for everybody. that's a start! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 minute ago, RippleEffect said: hard freeze coming for everybody. that's a start! Winter making a comeback!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 28 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: For everyone saying calm down, if I am running a ski area south of Vermont, right now I am pretty worried about missing Christmas week. The overnight lows haven't even been cold enough for many of the local ski areas to even BEGIN making snow on the majority of their trails, let alone build a base up. Hopefully they can pump out a ton these next three nights to get some trails open for next week. Winter is not all just natural snowfall to most winter businesses, they actually NEED cold (aka seasonable). My wife said it is FREEZING today, and I said naw it's just seasonable haha. I wonder if the new indoor ski model will gain in popularity? https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-skiing-can-survive-climate-change-11612969209 Downhill skiing could become an increasingly exotic proposition in a warming world. By midcentury, the U.S. could see 90 fewer days below freezing each year, according to a 2016 study published in the Journal of Climate and based on data from the federally funded North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Nearly all ski areas in the U.S. are projected to have at least a 50% shorter season by 2050, according to a 2017 study funded by the Environmental Protection Agency and published in the Global Environmental Change journal. SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS What do you think the ski industry needs to do to adapt to a warmer world, if anything? Join the conversation below. Higher temperatures make snow more elusive on the slopes, cutting into revenues for ski areas. Low snow years between 1999 and 2010 already cost ski areas an estimated $1 billion in revenue, according to a 2012 analysis commissioned by the nonprofits Protect Our Winters and the Natural Resources Defense Council. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Just now, Allsnow said: Winter making a comeback!!! it's definitely cold out there. feels good. wish we'd get some snow friday night that would be a nice present 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 21 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: For everyone saying calm down, if I am running a ski area south of Vermont, right now I am pretty worried about missing Christmas week. The overnight lows haven't even been cold enough for many of the local ski areas to even BEGIN making snow on the majority of their trails, let alone build a base up. Hopefully they can pump out a ton these next three nights to get some trails open for next week. Winter is not all just natural snowfall to most winter businesses, they actually NEED cold (aka seasonable). My wife said it is FREEZING today, and I said naw it's just seasonable haha. She's not wrong. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 32 degrees. Windchill 20. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 21 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: For everyone saying calm down, if I am running a ski area south of Vermont, right now I am pretty worried about missing Christmas week. The overnight lows haven't even been cold enough for many of the local ski areas to even BEGIN making snow on the majority of their trails, let alone build a base up. Hopefully they can pump out a ton these next three nights to get some trails open for next week. Winter is not all just natural snowfall to most winter businesses, they actually NEED cold (aka seasonable). My wife said it is FREEZING today, and I said naw it's just seasonable haha. This is a good point. Next 5 nights are forecast to be well below freezing at night up by me so that should help. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Teens projected for my low. Would be the first of this winter season. Decent amount of clouds right now though, not sure if it will happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is once again different Some snow Christmas eve for NYC northward and the Christmas storm is also flatter . My question on the 18Z GFS is how this storm cuts so far north with the block in place ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 33 minutes ago, RippleEffect said: it's definitely cold out there. feels good. wish we'd get some snow friday night that would be a nice present where can I rent a snowmaking machine ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: and he hasn't come to any conclusions as to what he thinks might happen ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 14 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: where can I rent a snowmaking machine ? Who was the guy on predecessor weather boards a hundred years ago who used make snow in his backyard every chance he could, and post photos of it? Those were good times, feels like about 15-20 years ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Zero percent chance any of this verifies, but.... WOW. What a map! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, TriPol said: Zero percent chance any of this verifies, but.... WOW. What a map! The CFS occasionally has runs inside 30 days where it nails the pattern but the last year or so its been bad even inside of 30 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The CFS occasionally has runs inside 30 days where it nails the pattern but the last year or so its been bad even inside of 30 days -50C in alabama? Not even Antarctica gets that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Here's an example. This is only an example. The 18z gfs progressed through that same pattern. Then, look what happens upstairs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 I wonder if the new indoor ski model will gain in popularity?https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-skiing-can-survive-climate-change-11612969209 Downhill skiing could become an increasingly exotic proposition in a warming world. By midcentury, the U.S. could see 90 fewer days below freezing each year, according to a 2016 study published in the Journal of Climate and based on data from the federally funded North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Nearly all ski areas in the U.S. are projected to have at least a 50% shorter season by 2050, according to a 2017 study funded by the Environmental Protection Agency and published in the Global Environmental Change journal. SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS What do you think the ski industry needs to do to adapt to a warmer world, if anything? Join the conversation below. Higher temperatures make snow more elusive on the slopes, cutting into revenues for ski areas. Low snow years between 1999 and 2010 already cost ski areas an estimated $1 billion in revenue, according to a 2012 analysis commissioned by the nonprofits Protect Our Winters and the Natural Resources Defense Council. [/url] The experts always seem to be wrong. Always painting the most dire outcomes that never verify. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 18 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Here's an example. This is only an example. The 18z gfs progressed through that same pattern. Then, look what happens upstairs. We will flip to a snowy pattern Just need patience 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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