NEG NAO Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 7 minutes ago, EasternLI said: A very large part... overall but other things interfere that greatly affect the finer details and outcomes ......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Just now, NEG NAO said: overall but other things interfere that greatly affect the finer details and outcomes ......... Oh, I'm not saying that. I'm looking at the bigger picture. Which is muddy right now at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 24 minutes ago, EasternLI said: A very large part... Yeah, the standing wave near Australia is classic La Niña. It acts to pump the Aleutians Ridge and cause a deep -PNA trough over the Western US. While the individual MJO composites don’t always match, this month is very close to the La Niña December forcing composite. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 14 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: overall but other things interfere that greatly affect the finer details and outcomes ......... it's going to snow in january guys don't worry so much. winter usually kicks in from january to late march! i don't think we have a january thaw this year! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Here’s what I could find: So, if I review this correctly, the southern stream is INACTIVE, lighter than normal flow along roughly 25-35N in the Pac through to the ATLC, but above normal speed Aleutians to the Canadian USA border. IF that's a correct read, I want to be looking for a strengthening of the jet near 30N, which if this were to eventually occur with a WAVE breaking ridge off the west coast, our chances for something in the southern stream would increase with eventual -NAO cold air damming (CAD) benefits. For now as I see it, we just cant tone down the strength of the short wave jet stream energy packets (500MB vorticity centers) in the northern USA. Fingers crossed that there is so much we don't know, that this pattern will eventually evolve-respond to permit at least 10" of seasonal snow in NYC and 25" out here in nw NJ. Those are my goals now... which I hope we can achieve by March 15 2022. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, wdrag said: So, if I review this correctly, the southern stream is INACTIVE, lighter than normal flow along roughly 25-35N in the Pac through to the ATLC, but above normal speed Aleutians to the Canadian USA border. IF that's a correct read, I want to be looking for a strengthening of the jet near 30N, which if this were to eventually occur with a WAVE breaking ridge off the west coast, our chances for something in the southern stream would increase with eventual -NAO cold air damming (CAD) benefits. For now as I see it, we just cant tone down the strength of the short wave jet stream energy packets (500MB vorticity centers) in the northern USA. Fingers crossed that there is so much we don't know, that this pattern will eventually evolve-respond to permit at least 10" of seasonal snow in NYC and 25" out here in nw NJ. Those are my goals now... which I hope we can achieve by March 15 2022. Thanks Walt! Although the low floor is depressing to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 18 minutes ago, RippleEffect said: it's going to snow in january guys don't worry so much. winter usually kicks in from january to late march! i don't think we have a january thaw this year! thats a relief I was waiting for someone like you to clear things up....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, RippleEffect said: that's my opinion, it's not a forecast. Those are kinda the same thing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 EPS with a nod now to the GEFS at 12z with the mjo IMO. That's a new development today. Stall in phase 7 is a real possibility. So you can see, the nice pattern previously displayed, now delayed as a result. The trough was further east by this time on the 00z run. That's why it's important to keep an eye on this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 9 minutes ago, EasternLI said: EPS with a nod now to the GEFS at 12z with the mjo IMO. That's a new development today. Stall in phase 7 is a real possibility. So you can see, the nice pattern previously displayed, now delayed as a result. The trough was further east by this time on the 00z run. That's why it's important to keep an eye on this stuff. Phase 7 in January is a good pattern for the east coast 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Phase 7 in January is a good pattern for the east coast Well, you can get variations depending on other factors too. I feel like ensembles are showing a version of this bumped west a tad. Not a perfect match by any means but some similarities, moreso on the GEFS run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 does the eps show any snow the next 10 days? it's really sad we're not getting anything for christmas! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 The last cold December in nyc was 2017. The lowest high temperature was 18 and the lowest low was 9. The month final departure was -4 NYE 2017 was -20 for the daily departure 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Well that GOA ridge didnt last long on the EC Ens... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 The big issue with P 7-8-1 in healthy Nina's like this is the tendency for subsidence over CPac. It's a seasonal standing wave issue 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the standing wave near Australia is classic La Niña. It acts to pump the Aleutians Ridge and cause a deep -PNA trough over the Western US. While the individual MJO composites don’t always match, this month is very close to the La Niña December forcing composite. The signals for the deep -PNA/RNA, full-latitude trough in the west this month were clear as day at the end of November, even just before Thanksgiving week, the problem is some decided to ignore those warnings. And there are more warnings for January….the models are steadfast on the tropical convective forcing moving to the IO by mid-January…..I’m sure these red flags will also be ignored by some as well…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The signals for the deep -PNA/RNA, full-latitude trough in the west this month were clear as day at the end of November, even just before Thanksgiving week, the problem is some decided to ignore those warnings. And there are more warnings for January….the models are steadfast on the tropical convective forcing moving to the IO by mid-January…..I’m sure these red flags will also be ignored by some as well…. On 11/25/2021 at 10:21 AM, snowman19 said: The La Niña driven easterly trades are absolutely roaring up to the dateline. Any MJO wave that tries to propagate into phases 7, 8 is going to get ripped apart and sheared to shreds 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 49 minutes ago, EasternLI said: So you can see, the nice pattern previously displayed, now delayed as a result Not a surprise given how the models have been unsuccessfully trying to weaken the La Niña standing wave near Australia. New run Old run 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Good luck with phase 8 lol God speed!!! The phase 8 wishcast shall live in infamy!!!! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inter Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 46 minutes ago, EasternLI said: EPS with a nod now to the GEFS at 12z with the mjo IMO. That's a new development today. Stall in phase 7 is a real possibility. So you can see, the nice pattern previously displayed, now delayed as a result. The trough was further east by this time on the 00z run. That's why it's important to keep an eye on this stuff. This isn’t a bad look though. At least the SE ridge is neutered. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 The question is, does it progress after a stall? Or what happens? I still see pretty strong subsidence in the Indian ocean edging into the Maritime Continent on the end of both ensembles. So I don't think we revert to that area. At least not initially because of that. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 On 11/26/2021 at 5:53 AM, snowman19 said: @bluewaveStill a firehose PAC jet in the long range as far as the eye can see. It shows no signs of letting up. It also looks like the +EPO has established a positive feedback loop due to the super cold GOA/severely -PDO and the extremely deep snowpack over all of Alaska. It’s just continuing to manufacture it’s own extreme cold there due to the very heavy snowpack and lack of sun, Alaska is setting all kinds of cold records Didn’t age well 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, EasternLI said: The question is, does it progress after a stall? Or what happens? I still see pretty strong subsidence in the Indian ocean edging into the Maritime Continent on the end of both ensembles. So I don't think we revert to that area. At least not initially because of that. It will get into 8 but probably after the 1st week of January 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inter Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 The amount of no life needed to troll on a weather forum is beyond me. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Just now, Allsnow said: It will get into 8 but probably after the 1st week of January That's kind of the way I'm leaning right now. But phase 7 is interesting anyway, that pattern can have ramifications up north. This is all way better than being stuck in the IO or Maritime Continent either way. I'd just pack it in if that was what we were facing. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Maybe all you guys throwing weenies should try out for the Nathan’s hot dog eating contest. 2 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 minute ago, EasternLI said: That's kind of the way I'm leaning right now. But phase 7 is interesting anyway, that pattern can have ramifications up north. This is all way better than being stuck in the IO or Maritime Continent either way. I'd just pack it in if that was what we were facing. Yeah, if we get to mid January and still stuck in the same h5 set up we are probably in trouble. At that point We would probably need a ssw to save us lol. As of now, I don’t think it’s time to Panic 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 28 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Good luck with phase 8 lol God speed!!! The phase 8 wishcast shall live in infamy!!!! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now