Brian5671 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Not necessarily Blocking will do wonders but if not then you are right. Here's what I see as a problem right now 1. Crazy fast Pac Jet-no precip as short waves just race across the country and don't amplify. 2. Record SST's off the east coast-going to need a storm to take a perfect track this time of year. (Later in the year this could work to our advantage) 3. MJO showing signs of stalling in Ph 6. (4-5-6 generally suck here) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2021 Author Share Posted November 30, 2021 This is not what we need moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 none of the tele's look good for December 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2021 Author Share Posted November 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: none of the tele's look good for December Yes to start the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yes to start the month Which means nothing when there are no systems to take advantage. Cold and dry is the worst. Some of the most boring weather possible for this time of year. We can’t even get a strong cutter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Yeah I don't feel good moving forward. Congrats snowman19 it seems that calling for warm & snowless every year means you'll get it right eventually like a dead clock. However if December doesn't play out like typical Nina climo what's to say Jan-March will. So it's too early to say what will happen. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah I don't feel good moving forward. Congrats snowman19 it seems that calling for warm & snowless every year means you'll get it right eventually like a dead clock. However if December doesn't play out like typical Nina climo what's to say Jan-March will. So it's too early to say what will happen. If we torch in Jan and Feb I want an 01-02 or 11-12 style torch....if it won't snow let's have record warmth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: If we torch in Jan and Feb I want an 01-02 or 11-12 style torch....if it won't snow let's have record warmth. I don't see us torching like that either because Canada still looks very cold and the fast flow will prevent big cutters. So it'll probably be more of the same warm 1-2 days followed by cool downs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 38 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This is not what we need moving forward. No, considering the EPO is positive and the WPO is neutral at the same time. I don’t think many expected the PAC to cooperate when we saw the strongest -PDO since 1955 and the coldest GOA since the late 1970’s. When you factor in the La Niña and -PMM (which strongly favors -PNA/RNA), it was obvious our chances this winter were going to have hinge on the AO/NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2021 Author Share Posted November 30, 2021 Hopefully the pattern gets better as December rolls on because if not then there will be alot of forecasts busting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Hopefully the pattern gets better as December rolls on because if not then there will be alot of forecasts busting. Some already are. Saw a few "Memorable Thanksgiving to xmas" calls on other boards/sites. Not looking very likely at this point.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: There's a stat out there too-if we get no snow or minimal snow in December, the winter will generally suck. Last year we had the foot in the middle of the month which led to a well above normal snowfall for the season.... I think a good TV met In Westchester County developed that metric 30 years ago. Of course once DEC is gone, so is at least 25% of winter. Still, there is value added. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Two layman's thoughts here: - Observing over the years, despite a lot of really impressive calls from way out, I also can remember many times where there was stone cold lead pipe lock consensus that there was no way anything good would be happening in the next three weeks, only for something totally unexpected and good to occur within that timeframe. So I'm not giving up. - No matter what, we'll get an annoying 60 degree day in the week leading up to Christmas to mess up the mood. That seems to be a regular feature around here much of the last 10 or so years. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 here are the Decembers with a snowfall 4" or more and what the rest of the winter brought...two years did not have much snow afterwards... winter.....Dec 4" ....seasonal snow...snowfalls after Dec... 1947-48.....26.4"..........63.2"..........5.7" 1948-49.....16.0"..........46.6"..........9.4" 1952-53.......4.5"..........15.1"............2.0"...the Dec storm was a two part storm with rain in the middle... 1957-58.......8.0"..........44.7"..........11.8" 1959-60.....13.7"..........39.2"..........14.5" 1960-61.....15.2"..........54.7"..........17.4" 1961-62.......6.2"..........18.1"............2.9"...the Dec storm was a two part storm with mix and drizzle in the middle... 1963-64.......6.3"..........44.7"..........12.5" 1966-67.......7.1"..........51.5"..........12.5" 1968-69.......5.2"..........30.2"..........15.3" 1969-70.......6.8"..........25.6"..........4.0"...the Dec storm was two parts with rain in the middle... 1984-85.......4.8"..........24.1"..........5.7" 1990-91.......7.2"..........24.6"..........8.9" 1993-94.......4.0"..........53.4"..........12.8" 1995-96.......7.7"..........75.6"..........20.2" 2000-01.....12.0"..........35.0"............6.0" 2002-03.......6.0" 5.0" 49.3"..........19.8" 2003-04.....14.0"..........42.6"..........10.4" 2005-06.......5.8"..........40.0"..........26.9" 2008-09.......4.0"..........27.6"............8.3" 2009-10.....10.9"..........51.4"..........20.9" 2010-11.....20.0"..........61.9"..........19.0" 2013-14.......5.0"..........57.4"..........12.5" 2017-18.......4.6"..........40.9"..........9.9" 2020-21.....10.5"..........38.6"..........17.4"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: Two layman's thoughts here: - Observing over the years, despite a lot of really impressive calls from way out, I also can remember many times where there was stone cold lead pipe lock consensus that there was no way anything good would be happening in the next three weeks, only for something totally unexpected and good to occur within that timeframe. So I'm not giving up. - No matter what, we'll get an annoying 60 degree day in the week leading up to Christmas to mess up the mood. That seems to be a regular feature around here much of the last 10 or so years. I couldn't agree more. I will never forget how everyone basically gave up on winter in early January 2015. What followed just weeks later was some of the deepest winter I've ever seen around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 18 minutes ago, Eduardo said: I couldn't agree more. I will never forget how everyone basically gave up on winter in early January 2015. What followed just weeks later was some of the deepest winter I've ever seen around here. Stuff like that is rare though....usually if the goods don't arrive by mid January it's not happening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 More wasted November cold, 22 this morning. Snow showers several days this week, then a warm up for December. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 The good news is that expectations were lowered when we saw the record -PDO drop this fall. The discussion was about needing impressive Atlantic blocking to counter the record Pacific Jet. Since December has been one of the more +AO + NAO winter months over the last decade, the biggest winter snows have usually occurred later on. NYC in La Ninas generally requires 3” or more of snow in December for normal to above normal seasonal snowfall since the 1990s. But if we don’t make that number in December, a well placed block in JFM can still produce a nice snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 34 minutes ago, psv88 said: More wasted November cold, 22 this morning. Snow showers several days this week, then a warm up for December. Sigh. Is this what we had during the late 80s and early 90s that made those years suck so much? This same pattern that lasted for like 10 years lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: The good news is that expectations were lowered when we saw the record -PDO drop this fall. The discussion was about needing impressive Atlantic blocking to counter the record Pacific Jet. Since December has been one of the more +AO + NAO winter months over the last decade, the biggest winter snows have usually have occurred later on. NYC in La Ninas generally requires 3” or more of snow in December for normal to above normal seasonal snowfall since the 1990s. But if we don’t make that number in December, a well placed block in JFM can still produce a nice snowstorm. Or we could be back into an mid 80s to early 90s kind of pattern, which seems to be pretty stable and lasts for a decade lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Just now, LibertyBell said: Or we could be back into an mid 80s to early 90s kind of pattern, which seems to be pretty stable and lasts for a decade lol All those winters produced at least one decent snowstorm of 4"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: All those winters produced at least one decent snowstorm of 4"+ Right, it's very difficult not to have a 4" storm, but note that very few of those winters had 6" snowstorms and none of them had a 10" snowstorm. The same thing happened between 96-97 and 99-00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 snowing in yonkers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Stuff like that is rare though....usually if the goods don't arrive by mid January it's not happening Oh yeah 100%! But my main point is that December is too early to wave the white flag, especially when the models have been flipping and flopping. If, come the end of the month, our snowfall total is under 3" and the models are looking craptastic, then it'll be time to close the shades. Until then, I'm holding out hope for some wintertime fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 3 hours ago, psv88 said: More wasted November cold, 22 this morning. Snow showers several days this week, then a warm up for December. Sigh. Its not wasted if it helps cool the water in the Sound. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 3 hours ago, Eduardo said: Oh yeah 100%! But my main point is that December is too early to wave the white flag, especially when the models have been flipping and flopping. If, come the end of the month, our snowfall total is under 3" and the models are looking craptastic, then it'll be time to close the shades. Until then, I'm holding out hope for some wintertime fun. We had 30” of snow in February last winter in some places. We want Dec to produce but it’s one month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Is this what we had during the late 80s and early 90s that made those years suck so much? This same pattern that lasted for like 10 years lol? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 I like that we’ve given up on winter this year earlier than last. It was around December 7th last year; before December this year is impressive. I’m hoping pre-Thanksgiving in 2022.. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, North and West said: I like that we’ve given up on winter this year earlier than last. It was around December 7th last year; before December this year is impressive. I’m hoping pre-Thanksgiving in 2022. . Good evening N & W. If S19 gets the post limitation cancelled, Labor Day will definitely be in the running. As always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Don't Try to Pretty Her Up.......THE UGLY PIG "DecemberNita" comes to the party already dolled up in "Red Rouge" lipstick! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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