WeatherFox Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Current reality in next 7 days for NYC. Progressive pattern, lack of enough cold air, unlikely phasing, and no White Christmas. Today Partly sunny, with a high near 43. Breezy, with a northwest wind 16 to 20 mph. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 27. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. North wind 8 to 17 mph. Monday Sunny, with a high near 39. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 33. Southwest wind 8 to 10 mph. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 46. West wind 6 to 9 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 35. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 48. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 31. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 42. Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 47. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Christmas Day Partly sunny, with a high near 48. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, WeatherFox said: Current reality in next 7 days for NYC. Progressive pattern, lack of enough cold air, unlikely phasing, and no White Christmas. Today Partly sunny, with a high near 43. Breezy, with a northwest wind 16 to 20 mph. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 27. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. North wind 8 to 17 mph. Monday Sunny, with a high near 39. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 33. Southwest wind 8 to 10 mph. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 46. West wind 6 to 9 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 35. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 48. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 31. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 42. Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 47. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Christmas Day Partly sunny, with a high near 48. Hard to get a phase with a negative PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It’s not a matter of being impatient. We just don’t want to be in the NYC below 3” December La Niña club. Very disappointing to see things getting pushed back now into early January. The new 91-20 climate normals seasonal snowfall in NYC is 29.8”. NYC has never reached 30.0” in a La season with under 3.0” in December since 1950. This must be related to the fact that the good La Niña years for snowfall get off to an early start since they are front-loaded. NYC December snowfall during La Ninas and seasonal snowfall. 2017…..7.7….40.9 2016….3.2….30.2 2011…..0.0….7.4 2010….20.1….61.9 2008….6.0…..27.6 2007….2.9……11.9 2005….9.7……40.0 2000….13.4…..35.0 1999…….T…….16.3 1998…..2.0……12.7 1995…..11.5…..75.6 1988…..0.3……8.1 1984…..5.5…..24.1 1975…..2.3…..17.3 1974……0.1…..13.1 1973…..2.8….23.5 1971…….T……22.9 1970……2.4….15.5 1964……3.1….24.4 1955…...3.3…33.5 1954…...0.1….11.5 1949……1.5….14.0 1971 would be a good outcome relatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 56 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: On its face no December snowfall in a Nina is bad but we've seen a lot of things that we've never had before lately. Maybe this could be the first time we see 30"+ after 0" in December in a Nina. Depends what you are looking for to save winter. Goose egg for Dec plus Sept thru Dec warmth doesnt lead to a good winter especially a Nina setup. Does one 30 inch historic storm save winter? Like 2015 Or was 2015 a scary island of warmth, with almost no snow outside that storm? That 30 inches melted in one week…which was crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 29 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the EPS has a big AAM drop forecast in mid-January. We had the steep AO rise in early December with the last drop. The current +AAM rise is giving us the big -AO pattern. So we may need a MJO 7 SSW warming event in the next few weeks to lock in the -AO pattern. Otherwise, we could lose the -AO in mid-January. Plus these big AO swings in recent years have been more common. We can remember discussing how we sometimes get SSWs with a strong MJO 7. But we also discussed the paper on the IO forcing leading to a +AO. So plenty to track over the next few weeks. I look at is as we need to score in the 2 to 4 weeks tht the AO is negative and rely on March (always good in Nina). I honestly believe we have a decent shot at an average snowfall winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 CHECK OUT THIS INSANITY. DESPITE FOREKNOWLEDGE THAT WE ARE ALREADY +5.8, THE CFS MONTHLY WANTS TO SAY WE WILL FINISH AT ABOUT -2!!!.......and it has been getting colder by the daily run........but it had it right 4 days ago........a finish at +4. So it is predicting we will rid ourselves of a 104+62 = +166 surplus in just 13 days, 0R A WHOPPING -13!!!! FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH. ! Patient to WARD 5 and an ECT Overload to be administered STAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the EPS has a big AAM drop forecast in mid-January. We had the steep AO rise in early December with the last drop. The current +AAM rise is giving us the big -AO pattern. So we may need a MJO 7 SSW warming event in the next few weeks to lock in the -AO pattern. Otherwise, we could lose the -AO in mid-January. Plus these big AO swings in recent years have been more common. We can remember discussing how we sometimes get SSWs with a strong MJO 7. But we also discussed the paper on the IO convection to the +AO. So plenty to track over the next few weeks. Right, absolutely. I've always assumed that the pattern would break around mid month, but that's just a guess. The upcoming pattern, while uninspiring for the rest of this month, is capable of doing damage to the PV. Some runs show that. Ultimately to what degree? Who knows. Not really clear to me how tropical convection is going to behave moving forward currently between guidance either. We're at an interesting point right now. Plenty to monitor moving forward. The other interesting thing is this disconnect between the troposphere and the strat. With blocking in the troposphere as the strat does it's own thing above. Which I find pretty interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 11 minutes ago, CIK62 said: CHECK OUT THIS INSANITY. DESPITE FOREKNOWLEDGE THAT WE ARE ALREADY +5.8, THE CFS MONTHLY WANTS TO SAY WE WILL FINISH AT ABOUT -2!!!.......and it has been getting colder by the daily run........but it had it right 4 days ago........a finish at +4. So it is predicting we will rid ourselves of a 104+62 = +166 surplus in just 13 days, 0R A WHOPPING -13!!!! FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH. ! Patient to WARD 5 and an ECT Overload to be administered STAT. Good morning CIK62. What’s alarming to me is what the atmosphere would have to do to get to such an unlikely result in 13 days. As always ….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 20 minutes ago, rclab said: Good morning CIK62. What’s alarming to me is what the atmosphere would have to do to get to such an unlikely result in 13 days. As always ….. The Euro seasonal did a great job with the December and November forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 How dry we are .............. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 hour ago, WeatherFox said: Current reality in next 7 days for NYC. Progressive pattern, lack of enough cold air, unlikely phasing, and no White Christmas. Today Partly sunny, with a high near 43. Breezy, with a northwest wind 16 to 20 mph. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 27. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. North wind 8 to 17 mph. Monday Sunny, with a high near 39. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 33. Southwest wind 8 to 10 mph. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 46. West wind 6 to 9 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 35. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 48. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 31. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 42. Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 47. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Christmas Day Partly sunny, with a high near 48. Running +5. Quite warm pattern. barring one off stuff, NYC doesnt get snow with +5 Edit: And correcting warmer we get closer. Nyc now closing in on 50 for xmas. A few days ago, it was near freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 19 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Running +5. Quite warm pattern. barring one off stuff, NYC doesnt get snow with +5 Edit: And correcting warmer we get closer. Nyc now closing in on 50 for xmas. A few days ago, it was near freezing You hit the nail right on the head with this post - with "And correcting warmer we get closer. Nyc now closing in on 50 for xmas. A few days ago, it was near freezing" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 High temperatures usually beat expectations when we have a deep trough over the Western US. The longer range forecasts for Christmas underestimated the strength of the SE Ridge. But you could see the risk of SE Ridge from the strong -PNA even though the models didn’t show it 10 days ago. New run Old run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 The stall in the MJO in 7 is going to help us during the coldest part of the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: High temperatures usually beat expectations when we have a deep trough over the Western US. The longer range forecasts for Christmas underestimated the strength of the SE Ridge. But you could see the risk of SE Ridge from the strong -PNA even though the models didn’t show it 10 days ago. New run Old run Snowy gfs run for Christmas for SNE. CMC also has a storm along with the euro but it's further north. The NAO will be negative . I wouldn't be shocked to see that storm shift south but if it doesn't, the pattern gets better afterwards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Morning thoughts… Clouds will break from west to east as the day progresses. Temperatures will only rise slightly as colder air pours into the region. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s and perhaps lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 42° Newark: 44° Philadelphia: 45° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 43.3°; 15-Year: 44.1° Newark: 30-Year: 43.8°; 15-Year: 44.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 45.0°; 15-Year: 46.0° Tomorrow will be fair but unseasonably cold. Milder air will likely return on Tuesday. Did you mean high temperatures will likely reach the upper 30s and low 40s not upper 40s to low 50s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 2 hours ago, CIK62 said: CHECK OUT THIS INSANITY. DESPITE FOREKNOWLEDGE THAT WE ARE ALREADY +5.8, THE CFS MONTHLY WANTS TO SAY WE WILL FINISH AT ABOUT -2!!!.......and it has been getting colder by the daily run........but it had it right 4 days ago........a finish at +4. So it is predicting we will rid ourselves of a 104+62 = +166 surplus in just 13 days, 0R A WHOPPING -13!!!! FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH. ! Patient to WARD 5 and an ECT Overload to be administered STAT. Probably a good time for me to chime in.. I originally, when it first came out, was favorable to the CFS but in the last year or so, I do not see any value in relying on the CFS for any range in winter. If someone has stats that oppose my impression, let ir rip. Thanks, Walt 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 23 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Snowy gfs run for Christmas for SNE. CMC also has a storm along with the euro but it's further north. The NAO will be negative . I wouldn't be shocked to see that storm shift south but if it doesn't, the pattern gets better afterwards. That was one of the reasons that the original board split into regional forums. There is just too much variation between New England, our area, and DC to Philly. Some teleconnection patterns favor one area but not the others. It’s always a big win if all 3 areas can do well at the same time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: That was one of the reasons that the original board split into regional forums. There is just too much variation between New England, our area, and DC to Philly. Some teleconnection patterns favor one area but not the others. It’s always a big win if all 3 areas can do well at the same time. Need a nice Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: That was one of the reasons that the original board split into regional forums. There is just too much variation between New England, our area and DC to Philly. Some teleconnection patterns favor one area but not the others. It’s always a big win if all 3 areas can do well at the same time. A pattern like this won’t do it. Gradients like this mean Boston can rack up big totals like crazy while we 33 rain (maybe won’t be like that specifically but it will be like that somewhere). That’s why for our sake hopefully the PNA can be at least toward neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Need a nice Miller A Not the winter for those. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Not the winter for those. Maybe in January if the Pacific improves Winter didn't even start yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Maybe in January if the Pacific improves Winter didn't even start yet Yes winter weather hasn't really started yet here - meteorological winter started December 1st. Trusting any model past 5 days in this pattern is a gamble IMO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Yes winter weather hasn't really started yet here - meteorological winter started December 1st. Trusting any model past 5 days in this pattern is a gamble IMO We don't really get any snow here until Christmas . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We don't really get any snow here until Christmas . You don't need snowfall to have winter weather FYI........... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 I've seen a lot of references to the fast Pacific flow. Can someone point me to a chart that shows the previous 4 weeks of anomaly that is referenced. 200MB? 500MB? Thank you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 24 minutes ago, jm1220 said: A pattern like this won’t do it. Gradients like this mean Boston can rack up big totals like crazy while we 33 rain (maybe won’t be like that specifically but it will be like that somewhere). That’s why for our sake hopefully the PNA can be at least toward neutral. That’s why getting a favorable Pacific is so important for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 59 minutes ago, lee59 said: Did you mean high temperatures will likely reach the upper 30s and low 40s not upper 40s to low 50s? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Positive snow depth change all related to the 24th-25th... one cycle GFS change... just aint easy to rely on single member guidance beyond a few days. This is about 6-8 days away and big snow on 06z cycle for MA has shifted north on this 12z/19 GFS cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 4 hours ago, bluewave said: The long range EPS takes the forcing back into the IO in mid -January. So it’s uncertain how long that early January forecast pattern lasts. We’ll probably get some more clues with the weeklies tomorrow. I would take any mjo forecast that far in advance with a grain of salt. Even you have said take it two weeks at a time 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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