bluewave Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Models coming in stronger with the -PNA around Christmas. This allows a SE Ridge to form. We have been seeing this more in recent years even with a -NAO. The models correcting stronger with the Aleutians Ridge allows a deeper trough in the Western US. New run Old run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Just an interesting casual observation of the ensembles pattern late in the run. Check out this 500mb composite, from the following paper. Evaluating the Joint Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Stratospheric Polar Vortex on Weather Patterns in the Northern Hemisphere https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019JD030771 Some interesting similarities between one of those and the pattern starting to emerge at the end of ensemble runs recently. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 The GoodForShxt model looking warm again---maybe three BN days left for the year. The next 8 days are averaging 39(34/45),or +4---or +1 nowadays. Christmas, which was the coldest day incoming, is now up to 50---as are other days. Reached 60 here yesterday. Today: 44-47, wind e. to nw., cloudy, rain till early PM. 48*(50%RH) here at 6am. 47* at 7am. 44* at 8am. Most of PM at 47*. Then 48* at 6pm. 51* at 8pm. 52* at 9am(foggy,misty last few hours) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly cloudy with some showers and light rain. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s and perhaps lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 47° Newark: 49° Philadelphia: 54° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 43.5°; 15-Year: 44.3° Newark: 30-Year: 44.0°; 15-Year: 45.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 45.3°; 15-Year: 46.2° A brief shot of cold air will move into the region tonight. Milder air will likely return on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 57 for a high here yesterday, currently 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 32 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Just an interesting casual observation of the ensembles pattern late in the run. Check out this 500mb composite, from the following paper. Evaluating the Joint Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Stratospheric Polar Vortex on Weather Patterns in the Northern Hemisphere https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019JD030771 Some interesting similarities between one of those and the pattern starting to emerge at the end of ensemble runs recently. Nice paper. We are on track to see one of the strongest Aleutians Ridges on record for the month of December. This is a much more exaggerated ridge than we typically see with La Ninas. Maybe the typhoon recurve, record low and wave break near Japan, and record warm WPAC SSTs contributed. Even without the MJO, the La Niña composite favors a shift of this ridge closer to the West Coast in January. It can be a much better pattern then we have now if the -NAO remains negative. So some more things to think about as we head into early January. Record December Aleutians Ridge Normal La Niña December composite much weaker January La Niña shift east closer to the West Coast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Nice paper. We are on track to see one of the strongest Aleutians Ridges on record for the month of December. This is a much more exaggerated ridge than we typically see with La Ninas. Maybe the typhoon recurve, record low and wave break near Japan, and record warm WPAC SSTs contributed. Even without the MJO, the La Niña composite favors a shift of this ridge closer to the West Coast in January. It can be a much better pattern then we have now if the -NAO remains negative. So some more things to think about as we head into early January. Record December Aleutians Ridge Normal La Niña December composite much weaker January La Niña shift east closer to the West Coast in January Strongly agree with the bolded. They seemed to constructively interfere with each other. Nice post. It's very interesting following these events this year. I'm excited to see how the atmosphere responds to the events from the 21st forward. Which seems to coincide with the NAO building around that time on guidance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2021 Author Share Posted December 18, 2021 Eps looks really good past Christmas We might be rushing the change just a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Models coming in stronger with the -PNA around Christmas. This allows a SE Ridge to form. We have been seeing this more in recent years even with a -NAO. The models correcting stronger with the Aleutians Ridge allows a deeper trough in the Western US. The last 21 -NAO's since March 2018 have had no power at all.. I think we are even average to slightly above average temps for that 300 day composite. Every single one has been with -PNA or +EPO, This one's going to do a +4SD -PNA, and probably end near average or above average as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2021 Author Share Posted December 18, 2021 NAO and AO look great on the eps They both become even more negative as this month goes on. We have to be patient here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: NAO and AO look great on the eps They both become even more negative as this month goes on. One of the eps clusters puts a very strong ridge over Greenland at the end of the run now. All of the clusters have the TPV very unhappy late. Fantasy land of course but that signal seems to be growing recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2021 Author Share Posted December 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, EasternLI said: One of the eps clusters puts a very strong ridge over Greenland at the end of the run now. All of the clusters have the TPV very unhappy late. Fantasy land of course but that signal seems to be growing recently. A strong negative NAO and AO in January will bring down very cold air. Like I said in my recent posts , this might be happening at the perfect time for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2021 Author Share Posted December 18, 2021 This little batch of rain might be it for our area for the whole day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 I love how west-based the -NAO is.. only 4 January analogs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2021 Author Share Posted December 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: I love how west-based the -NAO is.. only 4 January analogs The only bad thing about west based NAO is suppression. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: A strong negative NAO and AO in January will bring down very cold air. Like I said in my recent posts , this might be happening at the perfect time for us. The timing of the potential is a nice aspect when you think about it. Just as winter climo is getting more and more favorable. Its one of the reasons I have been interested in this since the beginning of the thread. We'll see how it goes, maybe it all falls apart, but there's no sign of that happening currently IMHO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Models coming in stronger with the -PNA around Christmas. This allows a SE Ridge to form. We have been seeing this more in recent years even with a -NAO. The models correcting stronger with the Aleutians Ridge allows a deeper trough in the Western US. New run Old run This has been the theme for months….stronger -PNA showing up as we move closer in time. Every attempt at weakening that RNA has failed since early September. On the GEFS, you can see a very deep -PNA reloading in the opening days of January…. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Just an absolute monster -PNA for months on end... Someone should inform the CPC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 31 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The only bad thing about west based NAO is suppression. Let’s hope that does not come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Most -PNA's for Dec 1- Jan 3 .. this year will be #1 of all time by a good 20%. It's a tough pattern to break, but I think we will break this mid-Jan and maybe Feb with more +PNA, because of subsurface ENSO trends, and our ongoing opposite tendency to last year. This +100/-70 as a 20-analog composite of 3-months is a strong very strong baseline signal. v Jan 1-Mar 31, my dataset ends Jan 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Eps looks really good past Christmas 2022 We might be rushing the change just a bit Edited your post. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 17 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Just an absolute monster -PNA for months on end... Someone should inform the CPC. Good luck popping a +PNA lmaooo every attempt has been a epic fail for the last 3 months and they correct even more negative as we get closer in time, as we see for Christmas week but you go with that lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Just now, snowman19 said: Good luck popping a +PNA lmaooo every attempt has been a epic fail for the last 3 months and they correct even more negative as we get closer in time, as we see for Christmas week but you go with that lol Link to where I said that was happening? You won't find one, because I didn't. You, on the other hand, said we have had a strong -PNA since September. False. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Just now, snowman19 said: Good luck popping a +PNA lmaooo every attempt has been a epic fail for the last 3 months and they correct even more negative as we get closer in time, as we see for Christmas week but you go with that lol Amazes me how some individuals can completely ignore/downplay what has been happening for months but yet believe a change to a long lasting winter pattern is right around the corner. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Amazes me how some individuals can completely ignore/downplay what has been happening for months but yet believe a change to a long lasting winter pattern is right around the corner. Long lasting winter pattern in mid December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Edited your post. Actually, it looks like Jan-Feb 2023 will be -PNA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 18 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Good luck popping a +PNA lmaooo every attempt has been a epic fail for the last 3 months and they correct even more negative as we get closer in time, as we see for Christmas week but you go with that lol 13 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Amazes me how some individuals can completely ignore/downplay what has been happening for months but yet believe a change to a long lasting winter pattern is right around the corner. 2 ridiculous posts. The first bolded isn't true. The second bolded hasn't really been said in this subforum except by metsfan. But there's several smart mets that think this as well. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said: Long lasting winter pattern in mid December? ..the point is there are no signs of a long lasting winter pattern setting up. And that some individuals continue to ignore/.downplay what the pattern(s) has been producing for months. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: ..the point is there are no signs of a long lasting winter pattern setting up. And that some individuals continue to ignore/.downplay what the pattern(s) has been producing for months. November was cold and October was -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said: The last 21 -NAO's since March 2018 have had no power at all.. I think we are even average to slightly above average temps for that 300 day composite. Every single one has been with -PNA or +EPO, This one's going to do a +4SD -PNA, and probably end near average or above average as well. Didn't we have a negative NAO last February with record snowfalls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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