Eduardo Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Might get deleted. but I couldn't resist. Apologies in advance to the mods. And, @snowman19, it's seriously all outta love; this place wouldn't be the same without you. 1 8 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 37 minutes ago, EasternLI said: I see a lot of assumptions about the MJO on the EPS using the RMM charts. It was not dying out on the 00z run. Use those at your own risk. It's modeled to start pushing east, slowly, starting on the 21st. That date has been solid for some time now. There have been no changes there. We'll see what happens, just need to keep watching trends. I see no cause for concern yet. Me either, although I do wonder how much the typhoon might serve as a fly in the ointment... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 24 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Me either, although I do wonder how much the typhoon might serve as a fly in the ointment... It's most likely screwing with the mjo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Did someone hit you with a snowball when you were younger? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 I can also take OP runs from 192 hours at face value 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 19 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Did you move to the panhandle of Texas recently? Congrats !! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 23 minutes ago, snowman19 said: What's your forecast? 13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I can also take OP runs from 192 hours at face value Seriously How come he didn't post this ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 8 hours ago, snowman19 said: Ha. I love how you find tweets from random people to fit your agenda in hopes Don s or bluewave acknowledge it. You get all giddy when they stop talking about how warm dodge city Ks got and focus on you… 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 17 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Ha. I love how you find tweets from random people to fit your agenda in hopes Don s or bluewave acknowledge it. You get all giddy when they stop taking about how warm dodge city Ks got and focus on you… The Great Topeka Torch of 2021 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 That much of an anomalous west-based -NAO on a 10-15 day mean is just insane. We should start to see some chances around Christmas into the New Year with shortwaves rolling underneath the block (like the 12z GFS). It might warm up for a bit as the SE ridge pumps for a day or two in that timeframe, but that will be transient if it happens. Models often take a while to see the full effect of the block on the longwave pattern, and the EPS has generally done a horrible job from the start determining the strength of the block to begin with, so I'm not so sure I trust its depiction of the pattern over the CONUS as much as the other ensembles. The progression of tropical forcing will allow for the PNA region to become much more favorable for larger snowfall chances heading into early January. The GEFS and GEPS show this well as the trough focuses more towards the Rockies and cold air begins to spill into the E/C US as ridging begins to move towards the WC: That would be all this pattern needs to go from a bit better than average to something with huge potential, and it looks to be progressing that way as of now. Also, I've been hearing a lot of complaints about temperatures not being cold enough yet (not here, just generally), and I don't think that's as big of an issue as many make it out to be. Usually, when we see these big -NAO patterns, we're late in the season and climo is much more unfavorable temps-wise. However, we're in peak climo, and above normal 850mb temperatures are still cold enough to snow. We don't need big negative departures: Most of the NE is either at normal or very slightly below average at 850mb, but temperatures are more than cold enough for any system going south of the region. With a pattern that'll allow for that, this is all that's needed to see snowfall events. 8 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Eduardo said: Me either, although I do wonder how much the typhoon might serve as a fly in the ointment... I'm not seeing it being much of a problem on current guidance. Always have to lookout for things like that though, for sure. There's some activity by the Maritime Continent now. However upper level subsidence is forecast to start growing in the Indian Ocean. This is actually beginning already. Which will start pushing east and start putting a damper on activity there, slowly. The wave is intact already east of this area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Today was another very mild day. Records again fell at some locations including: Burlington: 60° (old record: 56°, 2000) Grand Étang, NS: 47° (old record: 43°, 2005) Montreal: 55° (old record: 51°, 1984) ***record 222nd 50° day*** New Haven: 60° (old recorfd: 55°, 2015) New York City-JFK: 61° (old record: 59°, 1984 and 2015) New York City-LGA: 62° (old record: 61°, 2000) Saguenay, QC: 44° (old record: 40°, 2006) Worcester: 60° (tied record set in 2000) Colder air will begin to return to the region this following a frontal passage tomorrow. A few showers or periods of rain are possible tonight and tomorrow. Parts of the Hudson Valley and northwestern Connecticut could experience some snow and sleet with minor accumulations. Early next week could briefly see the coldest temperatures so far this season before some moderation again sets in. The final week of December could see temperatures shift below normal as the month comes to a close. No severe cold is likely. Afterward, if the small sample of cases where the MJO moved into Phase 7 at a high amplitude (1.75 or above) during the December 10-20 period, as occurred this month, is representative, the first 10 days of January could see below to perhaps much below normal temperatures. Both the magnitude and duration of the cold is uncertain. In the Midwest, Chicago has yet to receive its first measurable snowfall through December 16. Only two prior years saw their first measurable snowfall on December 16 or later: 1. December 20, 2012 2. December 16, 1965 The front that will produce tomorrow's precipitation could bring some measurable snow to Chicago tonight. However, there remains a chance that no accumulations will occur there. Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter. The SOI was +11.05 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.145 today. On December 15 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.973 (RMM). The December 14-adjusted amplitude was 2.034 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.2° (3.1° above normal). 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Well, one bit of good news is all the snow/rain CA is forecast to keep getting. The 384hr GFS at 12z shows something like 20 total feet of snow in the Sierras and 10+ inches of rain everywhere else there. Awesome for them-then let the ridge build, warm sun come out and we get our turn. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Forsythia has buds on it… 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 32 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Today was another very mild day. Records again fell at some locations including: Burlington: 60° (old record: 56°, 2000) Grand Étang, NS: 47° (old record: 43°, 2005) Montreal: 55° (old record: 51°, 1984) ***record 222nd 50° day*** New Haven: 60° (old recorfd: 55°, 2015) New York City-JFK: 61° (old record: 59°, 1984 and 2015) New York City-LGA: 62° (old record: 61°, 2000) Saguenay, QC: 44° (old record: 40°, 2006) Worcester: 60° (tied record set in 2000) Colder air will begin to return to the region this following a frontal passage tomorrow. A few showers or periods of rain are possible tonight and tomorrow. Parts of the Hudson Valley and northwestern Connecticut could experience some snow and sleet with minor accumulations. Early next week could briefly see the coldest temperatures so far this season before some moderation again sets in. The final week of December could see temperatures shift below normal as the month comes to a close. No severe cold is likely. Afterward, if the small sample of cases where the MJO moved into Phase 7 at a high amplitude (1.75 or above) during the December 10-20 period, as occurred this month, is representative, the first 10 days of January could see below to perhaps much below normal temperatures. Both the magnitude and duration of the cold is uncertain. In the Midwest, Chicago has yet to receive its first measurable snowfall through December 16. Only two prior years saw their first measurable snowfall on December 16 or later: 1. December 20, 2012 2. December 16, 1965 The front that will produce tomorrow's precipitation could bring some measurable snow to Chicago tonight. However, there remains a chance that no accumulations will occur there. Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter. The SOI was +11.05 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.145 today. On December 15 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.973 (RMM). The December 14-adjusted amplitude was 2.034 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.2° (3.1° above normal). We got our record today, it was warmer than yesterday! Low 60s and sunshine all day long! Too bad NYC didn't get a record but we did here and at JFK. Interesting comparison to 1984 too, chances of a severe arctic outbreak in Jan like we had in Jan 1985? Note there was very little snow, it was just pure Arctic air. The coldest I've ever seen here and no snow with it. With snow it would have been even colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 While a few trees were fully leafed out here in SW Suffolk last weekend, NYC is running even later. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 47 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: We got our record today, it was warmer than yesterday! Low 60s and sunshine all day long! Too bad NYC didn't get a record but we did here and at JFK. Interesting comparison to 1984 too, chances of a severe arctic outbreak in Jan like we had in Jan 1985? Note there was very little snow, it was just pure Arctic air. The coldest I've ever seen here and no snow with it. With snow it would have been even colder. It would probably be very difficult to get a January 1985 outcome given the strongly negative PDO (it was positive during winter 1984-85). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: It would probably be very difficult to get a January 1985 outcome given the strongly negative PDO (it was positive during winter 1984-85). so less cold but more snow (since the positive PDO caused suppression in 1984-85? not really sure why it didn't snow much that winter.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 52 minutes ago, bluewave said: While a few trees were fully leafed out here in SW Suffolk last weekend, NYC is running even later. are we on a typical north florida pace? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: so less cold but more snow (since the positive PDO caused suppression in 1984-85? not really sure why it didn't snow much that winter.) Historically, winters that start with the kind of AO+ one saw during the first week of December wind up with below to much below normal snowfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Historically, winters that start with the kind of AO+ one saw during the first week of December wind up with below to much below normal snowfall. did we have that in 1984-85 too? I think we had a run of years like that in the 80s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 The GFS and been more erratic from run to run with this fast Pacific flow than the Euro and CMC. The Euro and CMC have been much more reliable. I am hoping that this means that the big Euro upgrade fixed some of the storm track issues it was having. 18z 12z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2021 Author Share Posted December 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: The GFS and been more erratic from run to run with this fast Pacific flow than the Euro and CMC. The Euro and CMC have been much more reliable. I am hoping that this means that the big Euro upgrade fixed some of the storm track issues it was having. 18z 12z To be fair it's over 200 hours out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 50 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: did we have that in 1984-85 too? I think we had a run of years like that in the 80s Not during the first week of December. Here’s the list: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 No thread at this time for sleet down to I80... if need one, will add in the on-going 6am time frame. Models have generally warmed a bit since this time yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Another new paper on the QBO - MJO relationship. Reiterating the importance of considering the QBO along with the MJO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Only -PNA of the magnitude as this December is 2010 Pacific kind of flipped around in January (+300dm Dec 2010 #1.. #2 is 1955 +230dm) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Just now, StormchaserChuck! said: Only -PNA of the magnitude as this December is 2010 Pacific kind of flipped around in January and we all know what happened 12/26/2010 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Here is something to look forward to in the New Year: Central Park did not record a single digit low in 2020, it certainly will not in 2021, if it doesn't happen in 2022, it will be the first time Central Park has done that in three consecutive years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Not during the first week of December. Here’s the list: 1992-93 was the best of that lot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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