December 2021

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

 

I will take extended phase 7 all day. Cooler temps and minor snow events.

Euro is looping in 7. Does it eventually move into 8 ?I think it will but minor snow events aren't bad at all.

I will take that all winter 

[EasternLI]

It's also very slow moving. So models could be rushing things. There's always concerns. Even if we were looking at a great pattern, there would still be concerns. Nothing is a lock with this stuff. 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is looping in 7. Does it eventually move into 8 ?I think it will but minor snow events aren't bad at all.

I will take that all winter 

My guess is it will but short duration and lower amplitude. I would rather loop in 7 then fly through 8.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

My guess is it will but short duration and lower amplitude. I would rather loop in 7 then fly through 8.

Agree

We are getting into the cold part of winter. Take its time and then go into 8 in January. 

[Stormlover74]

Lga broke their record high at 6am this morning

[North and West]

They said there'll be snow at Christmas
They said there'll be peace on Earth
But instead it just kept on raining


.

[bluewave]

It will be interesting to see how close to +10 the Southern Plains finishes this month.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

JFK Airport has reached 60 degrees. That breaks the daily record of 59 set in 1984 and tied in 2015.

[donsutherland1]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see how close to +10 the Southern Plains finishes this month.

 

 

The latest GEFS maps illustrate the need for patience. Some colder air could begin to spill into the region as December concludes, but the odds remain against a full-fledged Arctic blast. The magnitude and duration of a possible cold period in January remains uncertain. It remains possible that the severe cold in Alaska and western Canada may largely avoid the region.

[the_other_guy]

54F Beautiful. If you could lower the taxes it would be like living in the Carolinas. Still in shorts and a T.

I find it interesting that we’re not even in the warmest departures across the nation. I guess it could have been worse thus far.

Also of note, as I was flying over fly over country the past two days, There isn’t much snow anywhere… But if you’re going skiing in the Salt Lake City area Utah has been getting a good amount. That area and the eastern California are the only areas of snow cover observed

 

[ecovers94]

17 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

54F Beautiful. If you could lower the taxes it would be like living in the Carolinas. Still in shorts and a T.

I find it interesting that we’re not even in the warmest departures across the nation. I guess it could have been worse thus far.

Also of note, as I was flying over fly over country the past two days, There isn’t much snow anywhere… But if you’re going skiing in the Salt Lake City area Utah has been getting a good amount. That area and the eastern California are the only areas of snow cover observed

 

this weather, in the context of everything happening across the US( drought, tornados,) is really nothing to be nonchalant about.

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The latest GEFS maps illustrate the need for patience. Some colder air could begin to spill into the region as December concludes, but the odds remain against a full-fledged Arctic blast. The magnitude and duration of a possible cold period in January remains uncertain. It remains possible that the severe cold in Alaska and western Canada may largely avoid the region.

This is turning out to be one of our longest stretches without a -10 or lower departure.  The last -10 or lower day in NYC was July 3rd. We would probably need more ridging out West for some of that -10 or colder Arctic cold in Western Canada to spill east.  With the trough in the West, we could probably expect single digit negatives behind the cold fronts.
 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Avg Temperature Departure
2021-07-03	-14.1

[MJO812]

Snowstorm on the gfs for DC for Christmas 

Block means business 

[SnowGoose69]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

I try to simplify it to make it easier to understand. -PNA with the current wavelengths equals overpowering Pacific Jet. This fast Pacific flow results in a group of storm tracks. It has been record dry here since early November. The primary storm tracks have been cutter, hugger, and southern stream suppression. The cutting storms haven’t had much moisture since the flow has been so fast. Hugging storms haven’t had time to amplify so they haven’t given us much rain also. The southern stream gets suppressed due to the overpowering Northern Jet.

The -NAO going negative presents its own set of challenges when  we have a -PNA unless we get March wavelengths. The flow is still fast so storms stay weak. Over-amplified  storms can still cut with - NAO since -PNA will pump  the SE Ridge. Weaker storms due to the fast Pacific flow can get sheared out. Sometimes we get too much confluence near New England and the moisture goes south. So we really need to thread the needle. The hope is that one of these overrunning events before the month is out can take a Goldilocks -I-78 overrunning frozen zone. But you can see how models have this track one run and lose it the next run. The fast Pacific Jet creates challenges for this track. 

A +PNA is good since it causes the fast Pacific Jet to buckle opening the door for more interesting winter storm types. 
 

 

I told someone yesterday this is about the ideal snow storm you're gonna get in this pattern...NYC got 5-7 inches with this.  The -NAO was fake here as it was basically a bootleg -NAO as a result of a low that bombed offshore a day or two prior, otherwise this wave probably would not have sheared or dampened and cut north.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0106.php

[snowman19]

35 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The latest GEFS maps illustrate the need for patience. Some colder air could begin to spill into the region as December concludes, but the odds remain against a full-fledged Arctic blast. The magnitude and duration of a possible cold period in January remains uncertain. It remains possible that the severe cold in Alaska and western Canada may largely avoid the region.

The question then becomes the MJO….is it really just moving super slow or is something else at cause: 

 

 

[MJO812]

Suppression on the gfs

 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

The question then becomes the MJO….is it really just moving super slow or is something else at cause: 

 

 

 

Its also questionable how much the MJO influences things anyway...many mets claim unless its in a highly strong amplitude it likely has way less influence than we think it does and its more like cold SSTs/caused by/a result of the ridge or trof not the cause of the ridge or trof.   Joe D'Aleo did a writeup in spring 2002 showing that despite a raging MJO in phase 3-4-5 all of the 01-02 winter the ultimate PV strength would have resulted in probably the same pattern if the MJO was a in 8-1-2 all winter.

[LoboLeader1]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Snowstorm on the gfs for DC for Christmas 

Block means business 

Would not mind seeing this kinda weather for x-mas if we are going to remain in this pattern for the rest of this month.

[donsutherland1]

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The question then becomes the MJO….is it really just moving super slow or is something else at cause: 

 

 

MJO forecasts beyond day 7 are not very skillful. The SSTAs suggest caution—and the SSTAs, not Rai may be more responsible for the ongoing evolution of the MJO.

A push into Phase 8 is not a foregone conclusion. The MJO could well fall into low amplitudes only to re-emerge at a higher amplitude in a warmer phase. Thus, it’s plausible that any colder pattern could fall apart after about 2 weeks (mid-January?). 
 

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

54F Beautiful. If you could lower the taxes it would be like living in the Carolinas. Still in shorts and a T.

I find it interesting that we’re not even in the warmest departures across the nation. I guess it could have been worse thus far.

Also of note, as I was flying over fly over country the past two days, There isn’t much snow anywhere… But if you’re going skiing in the Salt Lake City area Utah has been getting a good amount. That area and the eastern California are the only areas of snow cover observed

 

You of all people get a bird's eye view of all of this. The record heat out west is pretty crazy!

[NEG NAO]

Suprised nobody posted this clownthis morning

[RedSky]

Somebody go kick the GFS server so it spits out the 12z fake snow map at tidbits 

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I told someone yesterday this is about the ideal snow storm you're gonna get in this pattern...NYC got 5-7 inches with this.  The -NAO was fake here as it was basically a bootleg -NAO as a result of a low that bombed offshore a day or two prior, otherwise this wave probably would not have sheared or dampened and cut north.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0106.php

The +PNA rise and the 11° Arctic cold In NYC right before the storm made it possible. 
 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0104.php#picture

 

1989-01-04	29	11	20.0	-14.7	45	0	T	T	0
1989-01-05	26	11	18.5	-16.0	46	0	0.00	0.0	0
1989-01-06	26	21	23.5	-10.9	41	0	0.43	5.0	T

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Snowstorm on the gfs for DC for Christmas 

Block means business 

Much like the Washington  Football Team the block will be missed....

 

[Great Snow 1717]

30 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Suprised nobody posted this clownthis morning

I just hate when models under do snowfall....

[hudsonvalley21]

54 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Suprised nobody posted this clownthis morning

 

[Allsnow]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I know no one wants to hear this, but there’s a chance it doesn’t propagate into phases 8, 1 and either dies out or loops back into 6. I remember a winter not that long ago where the models kept plowing the MJO into phase 8, 1 from November until March and it didn’t happen once, it kept dying in 7 and never advanced….

Did someone hit you with a snowball when you were younger? 

[MJO812]

Euro cooled off for Christmas but it's still way warmer than the gfs.

[EasternLI]

I see a lot of assumptions about the MJO on the EPS using the RMM charts. It was not dying out on the 00z run. Use those at your own risk. It's modeled to start pushing east, slowly, starting on the 21st. That date has been solid for some time now. There have been no changes there. We'll see what happens, just need to keep watching trends. I see no cause for concern yet. 

[NEG NAO]

28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro cooled off for Christmas but it's still way warmer than the gfs.

Also less snow then GFS