December 2021

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

yeah the temp never rises after 12:50

Very little this time of year unless there's strong advection present.

Higjest I see is 65 in southern/eastern NJ

[SnoSki14]

Miller A look if the PNA was more positive day 5 on Euro. Blocking is present.

[HeadInTheClouds]

63 today, expecting a mix up here on Saturday. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

Thanks for posting these bluewave. Thought maybe with the updated info his tweets would suddenly stop appearing 5 times a day.

No problem. Allan does a great job with his custom MJO composites. Even if 50% of that 500 mb pattern verified in January, it would probably be 100% better than this month so far.

[CIK62]

Latest invocation of the GFS.        Comes with 10" of Snow Bonus around the +/- 28th.

[lee59]

62 the high here. Gfs has a low southeast of the area with cold air to the NW just before Christmas. Doesn't mean much this far out but grasping at straws is all there is.

[bluewave]

It looks like the extended EPS moved toward the JMA in early January. It now tries to build a ridge near California. This is a big shift from the run a few days ago. It may be correcting to more of a MJO 7 +AAM look. The model could continue playing catch up like it recently did with the -NAO. So future runs could show further corrections. 
 

New run Jan 3-10

 

Old run

 

 

[psv88]

62 here today

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It looks like the extended EPS moved toward the JMA in early January. It now tries to build a ridge near California. This is a big shift from the run a few days ago. It may be correcting to more of a MJO 7 +AAM look. The model could continue playing catch up like it recently did with the -NAO. So future runs could show further corrections. 
 

New run Jan 3-10

 

Old run

 

 

Any +PNA (if it even happens) will be transient IMO. There is zero support for anything other than transient +PNA this winter, BUT….when and if one pops, that’s the time for an east-coast snowstorm. We watch….

[SnoSki14]

Today & tomorrow will be the warmest days for a while. 

EPS is looking better. Improvements out west for sure, hopefully that trend continues. 

We're a couple positive trends away from taking the 22nd system more seriously.

That's a really nice Greenland block on the EPS and the big trough out west has been shifting further offshore.

[forkyfork]

can't deny the trends but it takes time to get a storm after a hostile pattern. boxing day happened after weeks of blocking

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Any +PNA (if it even happens) will be transient IMO. There is zero support for anything other than transient +PNA this winter, BUT….when and if one pops, that’s the time for an east-coast snowstorm. We watch….

If the changes we are seeing turn out to be MJO driven, then the effects may only last until this MJO wave weakens. All these extended model runs are only a snapshot of what early January may look like. We can’t really extrapolate the whole month from the first 10 days. It’s nearly impossible to make a long range forecast based on another long range forecast. 

[Roger Smith]

So far LGA has broken their record (63F) and EWR tied theirs (65F). NYC at 62F within one, and has set a new high minimum of 54F. JFK and ISP with more marine influence are at 61 and 59 so far. It looks to stay quite mild to midnight or beyond so the NYC max record may still occur with the 62F of 2000 for 17th also not out of reach yet. 

[thunderbolt]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Wasn’t the JMA showing a very cold December with a big trough over the east at the end of last month?

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1468940494818344960/photo/1  It doesn’t look like it to me

[Roger Smith]

You may have noticed this also, a lot of winter month maximum records occur at night, quite often you can spot them in the data because two consecutive days will have very similar mild maximum values. This may be even more frequent further north, it is conspicuous in the Toronto data for example, and when I ran my own weather station as a student (1960s and early 70s) I saw a few of these happen. If you look at the records for Dec 31 1965 and Jan 1 1966 you'll notice they are similar and those happened late in the evening to early morning hours. I happened to be in NJ that holiday visiting relatives so I remember the occasion. Back home the high on the 31st was in the late afternoon according to the friend who read my instruments, and the temperature fell off after that. There are even a few occasions with three consecutive days of record highs and a fairly steady temperature in the middle of those three days, so two midnight warm readings in succession. The reason for this phenomenon may be the distance between the source region (Gulf of Mexico) and the east coast or lower Great Lakes, meaning that if there's a strong pull on the Gulf like there was early yesterday, then about 36 hours later that pulse crosses the northeastern states. Once you get into any modest solar heating like later February, this phenomenon fades out, and you only find it starting in late November also. 

[SnoSki14]

48 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

can't deny the trends but it takes time to get a storm after a hostile pattern. boxing day happened after weeks of blocking

Yeah I'd be surprised if it pulled it off so quickly.

[EasternLI]

Just starting to nudge into phase 8 now at the end of the ensembles. Barely. Makes sense that those changes starting at the end would be related. The hope is for continuing propagation to be advertised. Along with continuing improvement to the pattern. I'm not going to worry about a pattern change after the pattern change that hasn't even set up completely yet. We'll cross that bridge when we can see it in the distance. 

[donsutherland1]

Under partly sunny skies, temperatures soared into the 50s and 60s across the region. Numerous records were shattered or tied in parts of the Northeast and southern Canada.

Records included:

Albany: 61° (old record: 55°, 1971)
Allentown: 61° (old record: 60°, 1971)
Binghamton: 60° (old record: 54°, 1971)
Buffalo: 64° (tied record set in 1984)
Burlington: 58° (old record: 54°, 1982)
Grand Rapids, MI: 63° (old record: 61°, 1984)
Green Bay: 65° (old record: 54°, 1984) ***new December record***
Harrisburg: 66° (old record: 63°, 1971)
Hartford: 63° (old record: 60°, 1971)
Lansing: 63° (old record: 60°, 1971)
Madison: 63° (old record: 57°, 1959)
Manchester, NH: 56° (old record: 54°, 2008)
Milwaukee: 68° (old record: 58°, 1984) ***new December record***
Montreal: 59° (old record: 50°, 1992)
Mount Pocono, PA: 60° (old record: 56°, 1906)
New York City-LGA: 63° (old record: 62°, 1971)
Newark: 65° (tied record set in 1971)
Ottawa: 59° (old record: 45°, 1984)
Pittsburgh: 64° (tied record set in 1940)
Poughkeepsie: 64° (old record: 59°, 1971)
Providence: 65° (old record: 62°, 1971)
Rochester: 65° (old record: 62°, 1894)
Rockford, IL: 68° (old record: 58°, 1984)
Scranton: 65° (old record: 57°, 1971)
Syracuse: 67° (old record: 55°, 1971)
Toronto: 63° (old record: 60°, 1984)    
Watertown, NY: 63° (old record: 54°, 1971)
Williamsport, PA: 60° (old record: 58°, 1971)
Worcester: 58° (tied record set in 1971)

Tomorrow will be another very mild day. However, colder air will begin to return to the region this weekend. Early next week could briefly see the coldest temperatures so far this season before some moderation again sets in.

There is growing model consensus that the final week of December could see temperatures shift below normal as the AO goes negative. Afterward, if the small sample of cases where the MJO moved into Phase 7 at a high amplitude (1.75 or above) during the December 10-20 period, as occurred this month, is representative, the first 10 days of January could see below to perhaps much below normal temperatures. Both the magnitude and duration of the cold is uncertain.

In the Midwest, Chicago has yet to receive its first measurable snowfall through December 15. Only two prior years saw their first measurable snowfall on December 15 or later:

1. December 20, 2012
2. December 16, 1965

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter.

The SOI was +17.23 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.253 today.

On December 14 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.035 (RMM). The December 13-adjusted amplitude was 2.223 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.2° (3.1° above normal).

 

[wdrag]

Depending on future modeling I may begin an OBS-NOWCAST thread for I80 north Friday evening:  for a little mixed freezing precip starting Saturday morning trending to freezing rain high terrain north of I84.  Maybe extreme n CT gets lucky and picks up an inch or 2 of snow-sleet Saturday, but I 84 itself should be 1/2" or less of any frozen, even if it ends as light snow Sunday morning. If the models drop extreme nw NJ and even LI from the icing mix at the start, then I'll refrain from a thread and all the obs can be tucked into the nw suburbs.  Just a late start to winter. 

[bluewave]

Syracuse just had their 2nd warmest December day on record between the 16th and 31st. Only 1° behind 2015. Three of the top five warmest readings occurred since 2015

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON, NY
519 PM EST THU DEC 16 2021

...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SYRACUSE NY...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 67 WAS SET AT THE SYRACUSE HANCOCK 
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT NEAR MATTYDALE NY TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD 
RECORD FOR DECEMBER 16TH OF 55 SET IN 1971.

 

Time Series Summary for SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Highest Max Temperature Dec 16 to Dec 31	Missing Count
1	2015-12-31	68	0
2	2021-12-31	67	0
3	1949-1957	66	0
4	2018-12-31	65	0
-	1984-12-31	65	0
5	1964-12-31	64	0

 

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

If the changes we are seeing turn out to be MJO driven, then the effects may only last until this MJO wave weakens. All these extended model runs are only a snapshot of what early January may look like. We can’t really extrapolate the whole month from the first 10 days. It’s nearly impossible to make a long range forecast based on another long range forecast. 

MJO looks to die before making P8, any Positive PNA won’t last long

[EasternLI]

I'm not seeing that. Not at this time.

[SnoSki14]

32 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

MJO looks to die before making P8, any Positive PNA won’t last long

MJO 7 is still okay though.

[MJO812]

38 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

MJO looks to die before making P8, any Positive PNA won’t last long

I'm not seeing that

[leo2000]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Any +PNA (if it even happens) will be transient IMO. There is zero support for anything other than transient +PNA this winter, BUT….when and if one pops, that’s the time for an east-coast snowstorm. We watch….

That depends on how long the MJO stays in phases 7 then to 8. 

[leo2000]

40 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

MJO looks to die before making P8, any Positive PNA won’t last long

I guess you haven't seen this tweet. 

 

The models continue to show the MJO moving slowly through phase 7 over the next 2 weeks. It would likely not reach p8 till early January.

 

 

 

[CIK62]

SANTA TO DELIVER  SPF-30's AND BATHING SUIT's   TO  DALLAS:

MORE SANTA LIKE:

[qg_omega]

21 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

I guess you haven't seen this tweet. 

 

The models continue to show the MJO moving slowly through phase 7 over the next 2 weeks. It would likely not reach p8 till early January.

 

 

 

Likely will never make it, will go into COD before P8

[nyrangers1022]

17 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

SANTA TO DELIVER  SPF-30's AND BATHING SUIT's   TO  DALLAS:

I wish that was here 

[NEG NAO]

Don't give up on the chance of a White Christmas around here this could look alot more wintry then shown here because the models are still adjusting to the real pattern developing.....