forkyfork Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 we're running ahead of forecasts already. i think 70 is possible 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The RMM chart forecasts are famous for rushing things. All you are seeing know is them correcting to the slower VP charts. The VP charts still have MJO phase 7 on January 1st. I know the phase 7 for January is a relatively warm outlook That’s if it stays in phase 7 for the extended period time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 23 minutes ago, forkyfork said: we're running ahead of forecasts already. i think 70 is possible no way dude 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 25 minutes ago, forkyfork said: we're running ahead of forecasts already. i think 70 is possible Bring it on. Beats the hell of out dry cold if snow isn't in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 16 minutes ago, thunderbolt said: I know the phase 7 for January is a relatively warm outlook That’s if it stays in phase 7 for the extended period time I think phase 7 is cold for January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 57 at 10 am...forecast high here is 62, we will smash that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 17 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said: Wasn’t the JMA showing a very cold December with a big trough over the east at the end of last month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 35 minutes ago, thunderbolt said: I know the phase 7 for January is a relatively warm outlook That’s if it stays in phase 7 for the extended period time Phase 7 is cooler than average in the Northeast. Coldest centered in the northern plains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: I would be somewhat cautious, though I think January 1-10 will be colder than normal. December 21-25 is now colder on the EPS, too. The issue I raise is that Rai will likely have some impact on the pattern evolution. One cannot wholly dismiss it regardless of its skewing some of the MJO measures. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I would be somewhat cautious, though I think January 1-10 will be colder than normal. December 21-25 is now colder on the EPS, too. The issue I raise is that Rai will likely have some impact on the pattern evolution. One cannot wholly dismiss it regardless of its skewing some of the MJO measures. Is the typhoon just skewing the index or is it actually affecting the MJO itself (and, hence, the index is reflecting that)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 hour ago, thunderbolt said: I know the phase 7 for January is a relatively warm outlook That’s if it stays in phase 7 for the extended period time We haven’t been following any of the traditional MJO composites this month due to the interference pattern and big +AAM spike. Raleighwx posted some great custom composites with +AAM. But I think that the sample size gets really small when we get several factors interacting with each other. The MJO 7 500 mb composites in January have more ridging near the West Coast. But none of the composites may be an exact match due to the interaction of different influences and the recent very strong -PNA and -PDO couplet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 P8 for January imo looks like a cold dry look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 16 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Is the typhoon just skewing the index or is it actually affecting the MJO itself (and, hence, the index is reflecting that)? We probably won’t know the answer to that for a few more days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Raleighwx just updated for January +AAM and MJO 7-8 composites. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Yeah, I don’t see p7 in Niña January being horrible for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 Cold Christmas Eve and Day on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 59 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I would be somewhat cautious, though I think January 1-10 will be colder than normal. December 21-25 is now colder on the EPS, too. The issue I raise is that Rai will likely have some impact on the pattern evolution. One cannot wholly dismiss it regardless of its skewing some of the MJO measures. I would have to agree that the end of this month into early January is colder, assuming that the MJO wave progresses normally, into 7, 8, 1, which is a big “if” right now. The question then become post 1/10. Some models are showing IO convection flaring up by mid-January. If that’s really the case (another “if) then the pattern will start to mild up as we progress into mid-late January and February in the absence of some major SSWE. There are a lot of questions going forward and given the severely -PDO and -PMM, I would seriously doubt any extended +PNA run being shown on the models. We have been constantly defaulting back to a big -PNA/RNA since the beginning of September 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 H5 is really close with the 22nd storm on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Through 12 pm, daily record high temperatures have fallen at among the following locations: Binghamton, Mount Pocono, Ottawa, Rochester, Scranton, Syracuse, and Toronto. Daily records have been tied at: Albany and Poughkeepsie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 These new December extremes just keep coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Only about 11 days away 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Cold Christmas Eve and Day on the gfs and still the possibility of a white christmas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Raleighwx just updated for January +AAM and MJO 7-8 composites. Thanks for posting these bluewave. Thought maybe with the updated info his tweets would suddenly stop appearing 5 times a day. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 3 hours ago, forkyfork said: we're running ahead of forecasts already. i think 70 is possible Yeah def not 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Yeah def not yeah the temp never rises after 12:50 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 they should just move christmas to february to calm all you guys down 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Dec 16 records at all five locations set in 1971 are 65 for JFK, EWR, 64 for ISP, 63 for NYC and 62 for LGA. I only have the high minimum record for NYC and that was 48 also in 1971. If it stays very mild to midnight then the 17th record high could also be taken down, that one is 62 at NYC set in 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 57 minutes ago, forkyfork said: they should just move christmas to february to calm all you guys down Swapping Xmas with groundhog day makes perfect sense. The groundhog script can read will there be six weeks of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 You wonder how much longer skiing will be viable in the Catskills in this rapidly warming climate? Sad 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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