December 2021

[wdrag]

So attention is on the Plains-Midwest. Understandably.

Locally, not threading the coming weekend event along or just n of I84 due to membership being fewer up there but may start posting on nw suburbs thread tomorrow or Friday.  EC keeps chilly air along the I84 corridor while all other models much less so.  Could be a winter wx advisory event up there Saturday afternoon into early Sunday for sleet/zr- maybe even a little snow, possibly ending as rain (hilly terrain especially). Again, I do have some concern about the EC being too cool.  09z/15 SREF is not as cool and more like the somewhat milder GFS. 

So the 11/28 and 12/8 threads while minimalist snow, at least were something, compared to what winter elements we've had since, and sort of what it looks like for a while longer (to me: no future multi model agreed snow dates for the NYC area, at least not yet).  I like the -NAO but not sure it will be enough to give us much more than what we enjoyed 11/28 (-NAO) and 12/8 (neutral NAO). 

 

What i want to see is some southern streamers get drawn newd into the -NAO pattern.  So far, seems difficult. 

[White Gorilla]

59 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

 

 Crazy.  They just had snow there last week. 

[snywx]

41 minutes ago, wdrag said:

So attention is on the Plains-Midwest. Understandably.

Locally, not threading the coming weekend event along or just n of I84 due to membership being fewer up there but may start posting on nw suburbs thread tomorrow or Friday.  EC keeps chilly air along the I84 corridor while all other models much less so.  Could be a winter wx advisory event up there Saturday afternoon into early Sunday for sleet/zr- maybe even a little snow, possibly ending as rain (hilly terrain especially). Again, I do have some concern about the EC being too cool.  09z/15 SREF is not as cool and more like the somewhat milder GFS. 

So the 11/28 and 12/8 threads while minimalist snow, at least were something, compared to what winter elements we've had since, and sort of what it looks like for a while longer (to me: no future multi model agreed snow dates for the NYC area, at least not yet).  I like the -NAO but not sure it will be enough to give us much more than what we enjoyed 11/28 (-NAO) and 12/8 (neutral NAO). 

 

What i want to see is some southern streamers get drawn newd into the -NAO pattern.  So far, seems difficult. 

With the exception being the Euro, most modeling keeps any measurable winter weather N of Kingston. At this point any winter weather will be welcomed with open arms

[bluewave]

Thursday and Friday will be our annual warm up within about 5 days of the solstice.

 

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  12/15/2021  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      THU 16| FRI 17| SAT 18| SUN 19| MON 20| TUE 21| WED 22|THU CLIMO
 N/X  46  62| 46  64| 40  44| 36  46| 25  39| 27  49| 32  45| 34 28 43

 

[CIK62]

Colder, but No Snow:

[donsutherland1]

Historic December warmth demolished records throughout the Midwest today. At the same time, powerful winds with gusts past 100 mph in places lashed a large area running from the Rockies to the Central Plains States. Some areas experienced near zero visibility in blowing dust. At present, a line of severe thunderstorms was racing through the region. Damaging winds and tornadoes are likely into this evening.

Through 5 pm EST, preliminary records included:

Boscobel, WI: 71° (old record: 52°, 2011) ***new December record***
Cedar Rapids, IA: 73° (old record: 55°, 1957) ***new December record***
Chicago: 65° (old record: 64°, 1971)
Des Moines: 74° (old record: 59°, 1939 and 2002) ***new December record***
Dodge City, KS: 72° (old record: 69°, 1946)
Dubuque, IA: 69° (old record: 53°, 1939)
Green Bay: 53° (old record: 49°, 1998)
La Crosse, WI: 65° (old record: 52°, 1923)
Madison: 67° (old record: 52°, 2011) ***new December record***
Milwaukee: 67° (old record: 55°, 1891)
Minneapolis-St. Paul: 54° (old record: 51°, 2014)
Oklahoma City: 76° (old record: 75°, 1948)
Oskaloosa, IA: 77° (old record: 60°, 2006) ***new December record***
Ottumwa, IA: 75° (old record: 59°, 2002) ***new December record***
Peoria, IL: 68° (old record: 63°, 1971)
Rockford, IL: 68° (old record: 58°, 1971)
Sioux City, IA: 70° (old record: 62°, 1939)
Waterloo, IA: 73° (old record: 54°, 1923) ***new December record***
Wichita: 76° (old record: 66°, 1939 and 2006)

Some of that warmth will affect the region on tomorrow into Friday before cooler air again returns.

No Arctic blasts appear likely for the foreseeable future. Overall, through December 20th, there will likely be only some relatively short-lived cool shots. Afterward, the AO could go negative, increasing the opportunity for colder outcomes.

In the Midwest, Chicago has yet to receive its first measurable snowfall through December 14. Only three prior years saw their first measurable snowfall on December 14 or later:

1. December 20, 2012
2. December 16, 1965
3. December 14, 2001

There is growing model consensus that the final week of December could see temperatures shift below normal as the AO goes negative. Afterward, if the small sample of cases where the MJO moved into Phase 7 at a high amplitude (1.75 or above) during the December 10-20 period, as occurred this month, is representative, the first 10 days of January could see below to perhaps much below normal temperatures. Both the magnitude and duration of the cold is uncertain.

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter.

The SOI was not available today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.253 today.

On December 13 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.225 (RMM). The December 12-adjusted amplitude was 2.212 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.3° (3.2° above normal).

 

[rclab]

4 hours ago, dWave said:

Ha..I have these planted outside and yday it dawned on me..what are they still doing here?? They aren't exactly healthy but still holding on to lots of flowers. Usually they are shriveled up sticks by now. While it has occasionally reached the freezing point we haven't had a hard freeze yet with none imminent. It's more lack of sun slowly ending the growing season then cold temps bringing an abrupt end.

Good evening dW. With lack of a reliable hard freeze cold you have found a method to track the end of the growing season that we can be assured of, for our area. “Lack of sun”, well done, I like it. As always …

[bluewave]

Some NYC trees still holding onto their leaves as of a few days ago. Even here in SW Suffolk, there were a few fully leafed out trees until this past weekend. But the recent strong winds finally blew them down.

 

 

[Nibor]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Some NYC trees still holding onto their leaves as of a few days ago. Even here in SW Suffolk, there were a few fully leafed out trees until this past weekend. But the recent strong winds finally blew them down.

 

 

I posted in banter but there’s still a fair amount of trees here in my neighborhood with leaves. Some have only recently started changing color. 

[RippleEffect]

GFS almost had a phase guys it's almost there honestly!

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, Nibor said:

I posted in banter but there’s still a fair amount of trees here in my neighborhood with leaves. Some have only recently started changing color. 

Parts of Florida are near their peak right now.

 

 

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, RippleEffect said:

GFS almost had a phase guys it's almost there honestly!

can't you see they are busy talking about the leaves on the trees ...but I saw that

[Nibor]

13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

can't you see they are busy talking about the leaves on the trees ...

God forbid we talk about the affects of weather on the environment around us?

[NEG NAO]

19 minutes ago, Nibor said:

God forbid we talk about the affects of weather on the environment around us?

Sorry Neighbor for my sarcastic comment - but over here in central NJ all the leaves are off the trees - why do you think they are hanging on in NYC ?

 

[hudsonvalley21]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

Sorry Neighbor for my sarcastic comment - but over here in central NJ all the leaves are off the trees - why do you think they are hanging on in NYC ?

 

Maybe artificial trees 

[EasternLI]

 

[hudsonvalley21]

4 hours ago, wdrag said:

So attention is on the Plains-Midwest. Understandably.

Locally, not threading the coming weekend event along or just n of I84 due to membership being fewer up there but may start posting on nw suburbs thread tomorrow or Friday.  EC keeps chilly air along the I84 corridor while all other models much less so.  Could be a winter wx advisory event up there Saturday afternoon into early Sunday for sleet/zr- maybe even a little snow, possibly ending as rain (hilly terrain especially). Again, I do have some concern about the EC being too cool.  09z/15 SREF is not as cool and more like the somewhat milder GFS. 

So the 11/28 and 12/8 threads while minimalist snow, at least were something, compared to what winter elements we've had since, and sort of what it looks like for a while longer (to me: no future multi model agreed snow dates for the NYC area, at least not yet).  I like the -NAO but not sure it will be enough to give us much more than what we enjoyed 11/28 (-NAO) and 12/8 (neutral NAO). 

 

What i want to see is some southern streamers get drawn newd into the -NAO pattern.  So far, seems difficult. 

18z NAM came in with a little more vs the 12z run. It’s way out there in the NAM’s run but could be a start to trending to a colder solution.

 

[bluewave]

December version of the Dust Bowl.

 

 

[eduggs]

18 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

18z NAM came in with a little more vs the 12z run. It’s way out there in the NAM’s run but could be a start to trending to a colder solution.

 

Everything at least as far north as the CT/MA border looks like sleet there. But I can definitely imagine a little sleet mixed in at the onset for the northern burbs.

[donsutherland1]

Select records from today  included:

Boscobel, WI: 72° (old record: 52°, 2011) ***new December record***
Cedar Rapids, IA: 73° (old record: 55°, 1957) ***new December record***
Chicago: 65° (old record: 64°, 1971)
Des Moines: 74° (old record: 59°, 1939 and 2002) ***new December record***
Dodge City, KS: 74° (old record: 69°, 1946)
Dubuque, IA: 69° (old record: 53°, 1939)
Green Bay: 54° (old record: 49°, 1998)
La Crosse, WI: 67° (old record: 52°, 1923) ***tied December record***
Madison: 68° (old record: 52°, 2011) ***new December record***
Milwaukee: 67° (old record: 55°, 1891)
Minneapolis-St. Paul: 54° (old record: 51°, 2014)
Oklahoma City: 77° (old record: 75°, 1948)
Oskaloosa, IA: 78° (old record: 60°, 2006) ***new December record***
Ottumwa, IA: 75° (old record: 59°, 2002) ***new December record***
Peoria, IL: 69° (old record: 63°, 1971)
Rockford, IL: 69° (old record: 58°, 1971)
Sioux City, IA: 70° (old record: 62°, 1939)
Waterloo, IA: 74° (old record: 54°, 1923) ***new December record***
Wichita: 77° (old record: 66°, 1939 and 2006)

[the_other_guy]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Thursday and Friday will be our annual warm up within about 5 days of the solstice.

 

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  12/15/2021  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      THU 16| FRI 17| SAT 18| SUN 19| MON 20| TUE 21| WED 22|THU CLIMO
 N/X  46  62| 46  64| 40  44| 36  46| 25  39| 27  49| 32  45| 34 28 43

 

This is different. never cooled down. this year, the solstice will actually be the cool point in the month thus far.

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, Nibor said:

I posted in banter but there’s still a fair amount of trees here in my neighborhood with leaves. Some have only recently started changing color. 

youre living over a geothermal

[HVSNOWSTORM]

44 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Everything at least as far north as the CT/MA border looks like sleet there. But I can definitely imagine a little sleet mixed in at the onset for the northern burbs.

12z Ukie was good for the HV even NNJ.

 

[RippleEffect]

7 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

12z Ukie was good for the HV even NNJ.

 

remember everything trends south this year so far at least it has!

[HVSNOWSTORM]

3 minutes ago, RippleEffect said:

remember everything trends south this year so far at least it has!

Hoping man. Idk tho.

[RippleEffect]

2 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

Hoping man. Idk tho.

no matter what this mostly a rain event for the city maybe some sleet at the onset and maybe a few flurries at the end. hudson valley could get into some action. next week is different everything is up in the air for that

[snywx]

19 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

12z Ukie was good for the HV even NNJ.

 

Welcome to the forum.. You live in quite the weenie spot. The drive up from Pine Bush on 52 has some impressive elevation gain right to Cragsmoor. 

[HVSNOWSTORM]

45 minutes ago, snywx said:

Welcome to the forum.. You live in quite the weenie spot. The drive up from Pine Bush on 52 has some impressive elevation gain right to Cragsmoor. 

I just mover here in September I used to live in Highland. I live literally right at the top of the mountain in cragsmoor on 52. So I'm excited to see how the elevation affects winter here. The temps on normal day are usually 4-8F cooler than pine bush or ellenville.

[HVSNOWSTORM]

NAM looks way south more ice and snow further south. Either way I look to be in for a pretty good ice event here. Hopefully NAM is trending towards the Euro, def took a big step in that direction. Also major icing.

0z

18z

0z

 

18z

[NEG NAO]