December 2021

[NEG NAO]

Let's talk about the potential Strat Warming event developing later in the month:

[SnoSki14]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it’s all related. The MJO slowing in phase 6-7 this month is right over those record SSTs causing the extreme marine heatwave. In recent years during La Ninas, the most amplified MJO phase 6-7 phases were later in the winter. So this much amplitude in December is something new for us.

 

 

What do you think this means. Because we seem to be getting the typical Jan/Feb Nina climo now.

However this suggests the rest of winter won't play out like a typical Nina. 

[HailMan06]

5 hours ago, Rjay said:

This is ridiculous 

 

Met winter is the new March.

[Rjay]

5 minutes ago, HailMan06 said:

March is the new met winter.

Sigh

 

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

22 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Let's talk about the potential Strat Warming event developing later in the month:

Whoa! It might be hard for the NAO to go negative late month. The last few runs of GFS ensembles have kind of backed off a little. 

[Rjay]

 

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 hour ago, rclab said:

 

 

Good morning, Anthony, jfk. I fully agree, Anthony. We will have a return to seasonable even wintry conditions at some time. Also as jfk alluded, 9 days from now, unless the change occurs, I may be able to take and post a similar photos. I included the marigolds which are still blooming. I know the pansies prefer cooler weather. I’m not sure about the marigolds. The broom rider is still in the marigolds photo because the neighborhood children asked me to leave it that way. Perhaps, Anthony, by the end of the week after next, I may post those blooms peeking out through Christmas snow. Have a blessed day all. As always ……
 

That's nuts that they are still blooming on Dec 15th. Haven't see that in a while up here in mid HV. Last night had a low of 22 and still only 35 right now. Has central park hit freezing yet? 

[MJO812]

29 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I don't see it as negativity other than one or 2 posters.  

Agree

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

That's nuts that they are still blooming on Dec 15th. Haven't see that in a while up here in mid HV. Last night had a low of 22 and still only 35 right now. Has central park hit freezing yet? 

Yes

[HailMan06]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Sigh

 

 

Oops I meant to say met winter is the new March but you know what I mean.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

Some of those same areas under the moderate risk had up to 12” snow less than a week ago. Crazy is right. 

[rclab]

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

That's nuts that they are still blooming on Dec 15th. Haven't see that in a while up here in mid HV. Last night had a low of 22 and still only 35 right now. Has central park hit freezing yet? 

 

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

That's nuts that they are still blooming on Dec 15th. Haven't see that in a while up here in mid HV. Last night had a low of 22 and still only 35 right now. Has central park hit freezing yet? 

Good morning H T C. I believe so, perhaps once or twice. Not below 30 though. Perhaps the front of the building and my back yard postage stamp hasn’t. As always ….

[SnoSki14]

23 minutes ago, HailMan06 said:

March is the new met winter.

We should expect more fall/winter tornadoes as climate warms. 

Strong jet stream & cyclones this time of year coupled with warming temperatures is a recipe for trouble.

[bluewave]

Out of season warmth, severe, and 500 mb ridges have become more common in recent years.  We had our extreme winter ridge record in February 2018 with the record 80° February warmth. Now the areas to our west are setting new 500 mb height and temperature records for December. Unfortunately, the clash with the December jet stream leads to dangerous severe outbreaks.
 

 

 

[EasternLI]

30 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

What do you think this means. Because we seem to be getting the typical Jan/Feb Nina climo now.

However this suggests the rest of winter won't play out like a typical Nina. 

I have a sneaking suspicion that this la Niña taking on an east based look is playing an important role. 

Impacts of two types of La Niña on the NAO during boreal winter

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2155-z

As a response to the EP La Niña, the North Atlantic (NA)–Western European (WE) region experiences the atmospheric anomaly resembling a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern accompanied by a weakening Atlantic jet. It leads to a cooler and drier than normal winter over Western Europe. However, the CP La Niña has a roughly opposing impact on the NA–WE climate. A positive NAO-like climate anomaly is observed with a strengthening Atlantic jet, and there appears a warmer and wetter than normal winter over Western Europe.

[LoboLeader1]

Mountains areas out west getting slammed.......some spots have seen over 6 feet of snow already.

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY...

* CHANGES...Increased snow totals and peak wind gusts.

* WHAT...Heavy snow and strong winds expected. Total snow
accumulations of 8 to 16 inches, with 14 to 28 inches above 7000
feet including major passes. Wind gusts up to 45 mph, with
Sierra ridge gusts over 100 mph.

* WHERE...Greater Lake Tahoe Area.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST Thursday. Heaviest
snowfall rates and strongest winds between 4 PM this afternoon
and 4 AM Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to nearly impossible
with whiteout conditions at times from falling and blowing snow.
The hazardous conditions will impact this evening`s and Thursday
morning`s commutes. Long delays are likely, with road closures
possible. Strong winds could cause tree damage and power
outages.

 

[EasternLI]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

 

Yikes 

Not good. 

 

[NorthShoreWx]

10 hours ago, psv88 said:

Islip was 30 due south of you, so probably a bit of both. 

Got down to 29 here this am.  Dry air helps, like a year ago November when we had a run of days in the 70s with frosty nights.

[Eduardo]

On 12/7/2021 at 3:00 PM, Eduardo said:

I'd love to see it, but I'm skeptical.  You'd also have to do something about that pesky -PNA before a -EPO can lean on the SE ridge too.  You'd think that the pool of anomalously cold SST near western S. America would have to serve us well at some point though, even if the NPAC looks like (not-so) hot garbage.

 

52 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I have a sneaking suspicion that this la Niña taking on an east based look is playing an important role. 

Impacts of two types of La Niña on the NAO during boreal winter

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2155-z

As a response to the EP La Niña, the North Atlantic (NA)–Western European (WE) region experiences the atmospheric anomaly resembling a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern accompanied by a weakening Atlantic jet. It leads to a cooler and drier than normal winter over Western Europe. However, the CP La Niña has a roughly opposing impact on the NA–WE climate. A positive NAO-like climate anomaly is observed with a strengthening Atlantic jet, and there appears a warmer and wetter than normal winter over Western Europe.

Following this closely as well.  That dark blue stripe west of Ecuador certainly can't be a bad thing for us winter weather lovers, right?

[EasternLI]

8 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

 

Following this closely as well.  That dark blue stripe west of Ecuador certainly can't be a bad thing for us winter weather lovers, right?

No, not at all. It would be far worse if it was in the central Pacific. That was a welcome development. 

[dWave]

3 hours ago, rclab said:

 

 

Good morning, Anthony, jfk. I fully agree, Anthony. We will have a return to seasonable even wintry conditions at some time. Also as jfk alluded, 9 days from now, unless the change occurs, I may be able to take and post a similar photos. I included the marigolds which are still blooming. I know the pansies prefer cooler weather. I’m not sure about the marigolds. The broom rider is still in the marigolds photo because the neighborhood children asked me to leave it that way. Perhaps, Anthony, by the end of the week after next, I may post those blooms peeking out through Christmas snow. Have a blessed day all. As always ……
 

Ha..I have these planted outside and yday it dawned on me..what are they still doing here?? They aren't exactly healthy but still holding on to lots of flowers. Usually they are shriveled up sticks by now. While it has occasionally reached the freezing point we haven't had a hard freeze yet with none imminent. It's more lack of sun slowly ending the growing season then cold temps bringing an abrupt end.

[bluewave]

52 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Yikes 

Not good. 

 

The extremes just keep coming.

 

 

[Eduardo]

5 hours ago, Rjay said:

This is ridiculous 

 

Insane!

[Heisy]

8 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Insane!

Mother of God.jpg 

[Rjay]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The extremes just keep coming.

 

 

The videos coming out of Colorado are wild

 

 

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The videos coming out of Colorado are wild

 

Did the old wicked witch ride by the window on her bike ?

Did the old wicked witch ride by the window on her bike ?

[LoboLeader1]

 

[LoboLeader1]

 

[bluewave]

New December all-time high temperatures in Iowa.

 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

That front looks like it will form a nearly continuous line squall for the upper Midwest so while some tornadic cells likely, there would be widespread damaging gusts in the 70-90 mph range. Currently at Garden City in western KS, winds are WSW 40G64 and temp dew point is 61/2 while at Wichita in eastern KS it's S 35G52 and 75/59. It's basically an April like severe weather pattern without much solar heating.