December 2021

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The EPS is not showing a KU pattern

He said possible 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

The EPS is not showing a KU pattern

Fantasy land regardless of what it's showing....that's 10+ days out

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Fantasy land regardless of what it's showing....that's 10+ days out

It's a better pattern than what  is happening now. 

[EasternLI]

34 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models are starting to adjust colder for the mid and long range .

Good to see

We're seeing adjustments to ridging pushing into Greenland quicker. Which, I wasn't really expecting so soon TBH. Great to see though, obviously. MJO is crawling on the VP 200 charts. Don't really see it in phase 8 yet through the end of their runs, at least on those charts. Still phase 7. Getting really close though towards the end. More so on EPS than GEFS actually. Could be why we're seeing a slight improvement towards the end of those runs. Fascinating to watch all of this unfold. 

[the_other_guy]

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Fantasy land regardless of what it's showing....that's 10+ days out

Yeh. I dont get what is going on in this forum to be honest with you.

Long range guidance is iffy at best. Even if we want to take it for Gospel, the pattern depicted is marginal for larger storms.

I laugh when I read about clippers. Clippers are an Upper Midwest thing. They almost never produce for the NYC metro.

Only thing that is certain is that it is warm the next few days. Then it will cool down and still be AN. 

Wash, rinse, repeat temp wise. December will end well above normal temperature wise… even with the new normal baeeline.

 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

We're seeing adjustments to ridging pushing into Greenland quicker. Which, I wasn't really expecting so soon TBH. Great to see though, obviously. MJO is crawling on the VP 200 charts. Don't really see it in phase 8 yet through the end of their runs, at least on those charts. Still phase 7. Getting really close though towards the end. More so on EPS than GEFS actually. Could be why we're seeing a slight improvement towards the end of those runs. Fascinating to watch all of this unfold. 

Most likely by January we will be in 8 but there will be a lag response to it.

We can work with a negative AO, NAO and negative PNA.

[RippleEffect]

after this weeks warmth, we're going to produce! just enough for it to snow. we obviously need to get it times right also. let's see what the models depict later today.

[Brian5671]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's a better pattern than what  is happening now. 

anything is better than this pattern

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, RippleEffect said:

after this weeks warmth, we're going to produce! just enough for it to snow. we obviously need to get it times right also. let's see what the models depict later today.

What times ?

[Brian5671]

15 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Yeh. I dont get what is going on in this forum to be honest with you.

Long range guidance is iffy at best. Even if we want to take it for Gospel, the pattern depicted is marginal for larger storms.

I laugh when I read about clippers. Clippers are an Upper Midwest thing. They almost never produce for the NYC metro.

Only thing that is certain is that it is warm the next few days. Then it will cool down and still be AN. 

Wash, rinse, repeat temp wise. December will end well above normal temperature wise… even with the new normal baeeline.

 

with not much to get excited for in the short to medium range, discussion turns to long range....I always know it's a bad pattern when we see day 10 OP runs posted   LOL.     December should finish +3 to as much as +4 depending on how the last week turns out.  

with regard to clippers agree, only way they produce is if there is an arctic airmass in place and the clipper moves just south of you.  No arctic air anywhere for the foreseeable future.

[EasternLI]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Most likely by January we will be in 8 but there will be a lag response to it.

We can work with a negative AO, NAO and negative PNA.

Modeling is not very good with the MJO. That's why I've been leaning very heavily on the science instead of models. Which is proving very useful so far. I'm more happy about that than anything else. We just need to observe at this point and follow trends but so far so good. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

with not much to get excited for in the short to medium range, discussion turns to long range....I always know it's a bad pattern when we see day 10 OP runs posted   LOL.     December should finish +3 to as much as +4 depending on how the last week turns out.  

with regard to clippers agree, only way they produce is if there is an arctic airmass in place and the clipper moves just south of you.  No arctic air anywhere for the foreseeable future.

There is alot to be excited about. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Modeling is not very good with the MJO. That's why I've been leaning very heavily on the science instead of models. Which is proving very useful so far. I'm more happy about that than anything else. We just need to observe at this point and follow trends but so far so good. 

A ridge will most likely pop in the west once we get to phase 8.

Modeling have been atrocious for everything ( pattern , storms ).

 

See what the gfs does with the Christmas threat ? It merges it with the 21st threat because of the block.

[the_other_guy]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

There is alot to be excited about. 

Yes like the 15° swing from Westchester to Queens this morning. You could almost plant pansies for xmas

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, jfklganyc said:

Yes like the 15° swing from Westchester to Queens this morning. You could almost plant pansies for xmas

Do you and others on here ignore what the pattern is depicting or just trolling ?

Yes its warm now but there are indications of a change to colder and more wintry weather. 

[MJO812]

14 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if this pattern is a big problem then I have no idea what to say at this point

Bump

Eps adjusted at 0z

[EastonSN+]

Actually getting amped for the depicted upcoming pattern. May not produce KUs but can easily produce light to moderate if not heavy.

Hopefully it pans out.

Still can't believe I have only experienced 6 below Average snowfall winters this century! Maybe it's why I am optimistic.

Blocking is always good to have.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Actually getting amped for the depicted upcoming pattern. May not produce KUs but can easily produce light to moderate if not heavy.

Hopefully it pans out.

Still can't believe I have only experienced 6 below Average snowfall winters this century! Maybe it's why I am optimistic.

Blocking is always good to have.

We have been spoiled in the 2000s. We witnessed alot of good winters thanks to the blocking. 

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

anything is better than this pattern

That’s for sure. More out of season severe and warmth across the country today. One of the warmest starts to December for the US averaged out.

 

 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

All the tells are heading in a good direction this morning.

The only somewhat negative would be the delay in getting the MJO to 8. Keeps getting pushed back day after day.

It's not showing a stall in 7 then drop to COD, but rather higher amplitude and slower. That could be GREAT as 7 is good and IF IF IF it gets into 8 at a close Amplitude AND that slow, could be a really good winter.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

All the tells are heading in a good direction this morning.

The only somewhat negative would be the delay in getting the MJO to 8. Keeps getting pushed back day after day.

It's not showing a stall in 7 then drop to COD, but rather higher amplitude and slower. That could be GREAT as 7 is good and IF IF IF it gets into 8 at a close Amplitude AND that slow, could be a really good winter.

That's happening in the coldest months which is a great sign. 

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Modeling is not very good with the MJO. That's why I've been leaning very heavily on the science instead of models. Which is proving very useful so far. I'm more happy about that than anything else. We just need to observe at this point and follow trends but so far so good. 

 

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

All the tells are heading in a good direction this morning.

The only somewhat negative would be the delay in getting the MJO to 8. Keeps getting pushed back day after day.

It's not showing a stall in 7 then drop to COD, but rather higher amplitude and slower. That could be GREAT as 7 is good and IF IF IF it gets into 8 at a close Amplitude AND that slow, could be a really good winter.

The very amplified and slow moving MJO is related to the extreme marine heatwave near Australia and New Zealand.

 

 

 

[rclab]

37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

There is alot to be excited about. 

 

35 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Yes like the 15° swing from Westchester to Queens this morning. You could almost plant pansies for xmas

 

34 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Do you and others on here ignore what the pattern is depicting or just trolling ?

Yes its warm now but there are indications of a change to colder and more wintry weather. 

Good morning, Anthony, jfk. I fully agree, Anthony. We will have a return to seasonable even wintry conditions at some time. Also as jfk alluded, 9 days from now, unless the change occurs, I may be able to take and post a similar photos. I included the marigolds which are still blooming. I know the pansies prefer cooler weather. I’m not sure about the marigolds. The broom rider is still in the marigolds photo because the neighborhood children asked me to leave it that way. Perhaps, Anthony, by the end of the week after next, I may post those blooms peeking out through Christmas snow. Have a blessed day all. As always ……
 

[EasternLI]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

The very amplified and slow moving MJO is related to the extreme marine heatwave near Australia and New Zealand.

 

 

 

I agree with that but I think we need a catalyst. Such as a TC/Typhoon. Which is what I believe is a good manifestation of that. There is some activity in that area currently. It's also one reason why the RMM plots look whacky sometimes. 

[JustinRP37]

I have a sneaking suspicion that this year our winter is confined to January. There is a lot of hype about the upcoming pattern, but I remain skeptical. I would be on a return to more normal temperatures, but nothing truly shocking for the time of year. We are also in an incredibly dry period, which makes sense given how wet spring through early fall were. That being said it only takes one knockout snowstorm for NYC to reach close to its average snowfall, even in a warm year. The past few weeks have been absolutely gorgeous and I must admit that for the first time ever, I don't really want any truly polar air this winter because of the cost of heating this winter. Although I do want a lot of snow in Vermont to head up and go skiing! I see DJF finishing above average in temperature overall with January being closer to average. For precipitation I see that as being normal to just below normal. I definitely don't see this being a 2013-2014 or 2014-2015 type winter. 

[SnoSki14]

Yeah good trends last night. Blocking in AO/NAO regions is quite good.

Just need that to translate out west some more. 

Meanwhile another 55+ day on tap with 60+ tomorrow. 

[Blue Dream]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Do you and others on here ignore what the pattern is depicting or just trolling ?

Yes its warm now but there are indications of a change to colder and more wintry weather. 

As a lurker from the Philly forum, I appreciate your positivity.  The negativity on this board is pretty draining.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Blue Dream said:

As a lurker from the Philly forum, I appreciate your positivity.  The negativity on this board is pretty draining.

I'm not being positive right now

I know people are hesitant because of how fickle the long range is but the blocking is actually moving up in time. We go through this every year.

[Rjay]

25 minutes ago, Blue Dream said:

As a lurker from the Philly forum, I appreciate your positivity.  The negativity on this board is pretty draining.

I don't see it as negativity other than one or 2 posters.  

[bluewave]

45 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I agree with that but I think we need a catalyst. Such as a TC/Typhoon. Which is what I believe is a good manifestation of that. There is some activity in that area currently. It's also one reason why the RMM plots look whacky sometimes. 

 

Yeah, it’s all related. The MJO slowing in phase 6-7 this month is right over those record SSTs causing the extreme marine heatwave. In recent years during La Ninas, the most amplified MJO phase 6-7 phases were later in the winter. So this much amplitude in December is something new for us.