December 2021

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Not normal for a la nina winter 

[MJO812]

Blocking looks good on the gfs and its moving up in time 

[RippleEffect]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Blocking looks good on the gfs and its moving up in time 

what if we get a phase for christmas? that would be something

[MJO812]

Cmc also has the Miller B storm but weak. All 3 models have a smiling outcome.

 

Ways out there but blocking is doing its work on these models. The low tries to drive into the block but then heads east and re develops near the coast.

[snowman19]

38 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc also has the Miller B storm but weak. All 3 models have a smiling outcome.

 

Ways out there but blocking is doing its work on these models. The low tries to drive into the block but then heads east and re develops near the coast.

Central and northern Northern New England should do well….

[psv88]

9 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

34 here.  Could be proximity to the sound, or maybe we had more breeze (or both)

Islip was 30 due south of you, so probably a bit of both. 

[SnoSki14]

Strong gradient at around 41N through the 24th. 

I do see ensembles are moving the blocking further west which would improve the Pacific pattern too. 

If this is true then it'll open the door for something from around Christmas to early Jan. 

[LibertyBell]

20 hours ago, bluewave said:

I left off last winter since the La Niña never coupled. But you can use it if you want. NYC had a snowy December and it was reflected in the seasonal totals coming in above normal. The La Niña relationship holds for JFK also. Under the 25.9” seasonal normal  if they get under 3.0” in December during a La Niña.

2017….6.7….35.5

2016….3.3…30.9

2011…..0.0….3.7

2010….15.8….42.0

2008….4.9…..22.3

2007….2.4……11.7

2005….5.0…..25.4

2000….11.9…..33.8

1999….0.1……14.1

1998….2.3…..12.3

1995….10.5…69.0

1988…..0.7….8.2

1984….5.5….27.3

1983…..1.2…..22.0

 

thanks, something I found interesting well 2 things actually

1-- though 3" seems to be needed for average or above seasonal snowfall in la ninas it is by no means a guarantee of that.  I see some years with 6" of December snowfall still end up below normal.

2- some years are close misses, like 1988-89 when Atlantic City got 19" of snow in a snowstorm in February and we got zilch.  How much does that come down to randomization and we were extremely unlucky because we missed a huge snowstorm by a tiny amount?  Are big February snowstorms rare in la ninas-- I seem to remember a few of them.

 

 

[the_other_guy]

28F Below Freezing! Woohoo! 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and mild. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 53°

Newark: 56°

Philadelphia: 57°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 44.3°; 15-Year: 45.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 44.8°; 15-Year: 45.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 46.0°; 15-Year: 47.0°

The unseasonably mild weather will continue into the start of the weekend.

[bluewave]

The GEFS and GEPS pattern near the end of December is what we want to see. This is the first long range run with rising heights out West and and an improving PNA. Hopefully, we can start putting some snow points on the board near the end of December and start of January. We just need the raising heights out West and let the storm track details  work themselves out in later runs.

 

 

[EasternLI]

EPS last night sort of hinting at something similar late in the run. 

[Rjay]

This is ridiculous 

 

[EasternLI]

The 00z EPS clusters punted the idea that they were once showing for the 21st. However, all of them now have something near the area for Christmas day lol.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  43degs.(39/48), or +8>>>+5 nowadays.

Month to date is  45.2[+3.9].       Should be near  44.4[+4.3] by the 23rd.

Reached 55 here yesterday.

Today: 51-53 reached late, wind e. to s. to w., increasing clouds, drizzle late? 

 The lowest H. Temp for the next 10 days on any model is 35 on the 20th.---therefore no snow for 10 days that sticks.      Christmas Day is cold, but the snow comes after that, if at all.

43*(48%RH) here at 6am.     47* at 9am.     51* at 11am.    52* at Noon.    53* at 1pm       55* at 8pm.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The GEFS and GEPS pattern near the end of December is what we want to see. This is the first long range run with rising heights out West and and an improving PNA. Hopefully, we can start putting some snow points on the board near the end of December and start of January. We just need the raising heights out West and let the storm track details  work themselves out in later runs.

 

 

If the PNA rise is real and that’s a big if, then you have a major snowstorm pattern. I’ll believe a +PNA when I see it. Let’s see if those 2 models hold it for more than a couple of runs

[MJO812]

27 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

The 00z EPS clusters punted the idea that they were once showing for the 21st. However, all of them now have something near the area for Christmas day lol.

Looks more wintry than grinchy around Christmas lol

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

If the PNA rise is real and that’s a big if, then you have a major snowstorm pattern. I’ll believe a +PNA when I see it. Let’s see if those 2 models hold it for more than a couple of runs

You don't need a positive pna for a snowstorm.

[MJO812]

35 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

The 00z EPS clusters punted the idea that they were once showing for the 21st. However, all of them now have something near the area for Christmas day lol.

Models are starting to adjust colder for the mid and long range .

Good to see

[Allsnow]

-nao already working for sne this weekend as it looks like they will be getting a decent snowstorm 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

-nao already working for sne this weekend as it looks like they will be getting a decent snowstorm 

That low was once modeled to go further north. Will be too late for us but this is the beginning of the NAO pattern.  

We will see our fun once the block gets better established. 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That low was once modeled to go further north. Will be too late for us but this is the beginning of the NAO pattern.  

We will see our fun once the block gets better established. 

Yup. I think our first shot will be near or just after Christmas. I always like looking at the models in the long range once they sense the block. The gfs at 06z was really showing that in the long range 

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models are starting to adjust colder for the mid and long range .

Good to see

Just like I said

 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. I think our first shot will be near or just after Christmas. I always like looking at the models in the long range once they sense the block. The gfs at 06z was really showing that in the long range 

This isn't a KU pattern but a pattern with alot of shortwaves in it.

[RippleEffect]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

This isn't a KU pattern but a pattern with alot of shortwaves in it.

actually we have blocking and it's possible we can get a huge snowstorm we just need a little luck!

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, RippleEffect said:

actually we have blocking and it's possible we can get a huge snowstorm we just need a little luck!

More like timing than luck 

This is when the ridge will be our friend .

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, RippleEffect said:

actually we have blocking and it's possible we can get a huge snowstorm we just need a little luck!

Long duration type events like December 1995 or Feb 1994 can happen. Generally west to east strung out but long duration with 6 to 12 amounts. 

[Yanksfan]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You don't need a positive pna for a snowstorm.

No we don’t necessarily need  the Pacific to cooperate to get a snowstorm, but it’s encouraging to see the latest long range guidance showing a much improved PNA. GEFS and EPS are hinting at a possible KU pattern developing at the end of their runs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

No we don’t necessarily need  the Pacific to cooperate to get a snowstorm, but it’s encouraging to see the latest long range guidance showing a much improved PNA. GEFS and EPS are hinting at a possible KU pattern developing at the end of their runs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes if we want to see a big snowstorm. I think the models will correct to a positive pna once the MJO hits phase 8 which should be at the end of this month.

[snowman19]

11 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

No we don’t necessarily need  the Pacific to cooperate to get a snowstorm, but it’s encouraging to see the latest long range guidance showing a much improved PNA. GEFS and EPS are hinting at a possible KU pattern developing at the end of their runs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The EPS is not showing a KU pattern