qg_omega Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Quiet weather pattern next few weeks with a few cutters, not seeing any snow this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 17 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Another non winter day across much of the country...waiting for winter to begin this season is like waiting for the Jets to resemble a professional football team... In that case we might be able to plant palm trees and have them live in NYC until I die... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 39 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: In that case we might be able to plant palm trees and have them live in NYC until I die... Palm trees in NYC or the Jets winning a Super Bowl in the next 25 years....I am betting the house on palm trees .. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: Time to move to Montana if you like Arctic cold during the winter. It’s been one of the few regions over the last 10 winters to get reliable Arctic outbreaks. That’s the only US region to have colder than average winters during the last decade. Looking at that map makes me wonder if the Rockies are somehow involved. As always….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 There is some Social Media discussion about the divergent GFS forecasts for North America (warm) and Europe (cold) in the extended range. Such divergence has occurred before during the 1991-2020 base period: The January outcome (composite) is below: December 1998 is arguably another such case, though warm anomalies were a bit more widespread in Europe than during the above three cases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 12Z Euro same as GFS and GEM for 21st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 dry pattern hard to break.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Gefs trending colder as the -nao is beating down the se ridge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2021 Author Share Posted December 14, 2021 24 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 12Z Euro same as GFS and GEM for 21st Eps is also flatter Like Allsnow said , euro and gefs looks really nice in the mid to long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Eps is also flatter Like Allsnow said , euro and gefs looks really nice in the mid to long range its only nice if we break out of this dry pattern and the storm tracks are in our favor for snow which there is no indication of that happening in the mid to long range yet.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 textbook retrograding -NAO on the 12z GEFS. gorgeous evolution here all around 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps is also flatter Like Allsnow said , euro and gefs looks really nice in the mid to long range I think things will improve for the coast after Christmas but best snow chances will be closer to the new year. I’m hopefully we see the pac improve by then with p8-1 of the mjo through January. The dry pattern doesn’t really concern me as it’s just a product of the -pna. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: textbook retrograding -NAO on the 12z GEFS. gorgeous evolution here all around Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: No but that's why you can't expect a model solution to be correct 7 days out Far too many people take the models as gospel. It is why those same people always end up being disappointed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Eps gone wild with the west base block by the 20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Eps gone wild with the west base block by the 20th but what are the main storm tracks going to be ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 I remember when many said the nao wasn’t coming because the euro didn’t have it… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Just now, NEG NAO said: but what are the main storm tracks going to be ? Should be a pattern filled of swfe events with the chance of snow to rain depending on the strength of the block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: textbook retrograding -NAO on the 12z GEFS. gorgeous evolution here all around Eps agrees with the retrograding block 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2021 Author Share Posted December 14, 2021 32 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I think things will improve for the coast after Christmas but best snow chances will be closer to the new year. I’m hopefully we see the pac improve by then with p8-1 of the mjo through January. The dry pattern doesn’t really concern me as it’s just a product of the -pna. Agree Eps is a thing of beauty today with alot of HLB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 21 minutes ago, bluewave said: You will need the Pacific to improve long range otherwise the -NAO and -PNA will result in clippers redeveloping too far east of New England. Hopefully, the -NAO can eventually retrograde far enough west to improve the Pacific. This has been the case in recent years. But the NEPAC vortex has been setting records since the fall. Ninja'd me, Chris. I was gonna say: "Looks like a clipper pattern." That RNA is really the fly in the ointment. So close to serviceable though! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Beautiful weather out. No one is discussing it 50F Brilliant sunshine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 12 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Ninja'd me, Chris. I was gonna say: "Looks like a clipper pattern." That RNA is really the fly in the ointment. So close to serviceable though! You will have storms coming out of the southwest with the trough off the west coast. The northern stream disturbances wouldn’t have much room to dig IMO. Our best chance would be from a swfe. I know day 10 but the euro had a tasty look on the op for Christmas. Just shows the potential 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2021 Author Share Posted December 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Beautiful weather out. No one is discussing it 50F Brilliant sunshine It's winter We are looking for snow and cold 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: You will have storms coming out of the southwest with the trough off the west coast. The northern stream disturbances wouldn’t have much room to dig IMO. Our best chance would be from a swfe. I know day 10 but the euro had a tasty look on the op for Christmas. Just shows the potential Massive trough over the west coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: You will have storms coming out of the southwest with the trough off the west coast. The northern stream disturbances wouldn’t have much room to dig IMO. Our best chance would be from a swfe. I know day 10 but the euro had a tasty look on the op for Christmas. Just shows the potential That's a tad prettier for sure (though, like you said, it's a D10 OP run). Flex the NAO on that map a bit more and your SWFE's become timely redevelopers. Some potential in this pattern, but I don't think we are where we need to be just yet. Lifting out that troughiness in the West would be ideal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 5 hours ago, Eduardo said: Ninja'd me, Chris. I was gonna say: "Looks like a clipper pattern." That RNA is really the fly in the ointment. So close to serviceable though! A small shift in the Pacific can make a big difference in our snowfall outcomes with -NAO and -AO patterns. Jan and Feb 2010 are probably the most extreme example of this. The NEPAC vortex in Jan was too far east so NYC only got 2.1” of snow for the month. In Feb it backed off and NYC got 36.9”. Just looking at the Greenland block both months, you would have thought that Jan would have been much better for NYC snowfall. So while the models correcting stronger on the NAO and AO block is great to see, they still have a ways to go for the Pacific to get where we want it. We need the -PNA to weaken in future runs. Since models are always a work in progress, it would be nice to see later runs come around to a more favorable Pacific. While I am always open to models getting better than they look right now, we still have the record NEPAC vortex since the fall. Hopefully, this can change in later runs. Jan 10 only 2.1” in NYC…trough near West Coast a little too strong Feb 2010 36.9” in NYC…the trough backs off slightly and allows the -NAO snd -AO block to do its thing 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 6 hours ago, psv88 said: 29 this morning 34 here. Could be proximity to the sound, or maybe we had more breeze (or both) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 37 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Beautiful weather out. No one is discussing it 50F Brilliant sunshine Sunset time bottomed out. Will slowly start increasing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 40 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's winter We are looking for snow and cold What's this "we" stuff. This is beautiful 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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