MJO812 Posted November 28, 2021 Author Share Posted November 28, 2021 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Tweet is from 2020 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Tweet is from 2020 Lol. He pinned it. But to be fair, here's his latest tweet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inter Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 A Judah Cohen tweet is akin to a Joe Bastardi tweet 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, inter said: A Judah Cohen tweet is akin to a Joe Bastardi tweet It's def gotten rough for Judah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2021 Author Share Posted November 28, 2021 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: why is it so hot out west? you'd expect a big trough in the east with so much heat out in Colorado....Denver hasn't seen a single flake yet The MJO 6 is building the ridge over the West while the fast Pacific Jet tries to flatten it out. So the trough can’t dig into the Southeast. We end up with the gradient favoring New England. There is a parade of storms crossing the Northern Tier. This results in warm ups for us ahead of the Great Lakes lows and cool downs behind. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The MJO 6 is building the ridge over the West while the fast Pacific Jet tries to flatten it out. So the trough can’t dig into the Southeast. We end up with the gradient favoring New England. There is a parade of storms crossing the Northern Tier. This results in warm ups for us ahead of the Great Lakes lows and cool downs behind. so we end up with a compromise between two different patterns, because the ridge out west would be really good for us but because of the jet trying to flatten it out the trough gets displaced northeast of us....I see why Ray was using 2007-08 as an analog lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2021 Author Share Posted November 29, 2021 We might have a storm to track ( December 5 ) Op runs are going towards the ensembles which are flatter. The models are shifting away from the cutter idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2021 Author Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The operational 6Z GFS at 180 hours….that’s guaranteed to verify Lmfaoo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Use PMs or the vendor thread to discuss that lunatic, i dont care. This thread is for the weather. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 06z Ensemble mean is not on board with this one https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/?parms=2021112906-GEFS-NE-winter-meansnacc-198-0-100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2021 Author Share Posted November 29, 2021 19 minutes ago, Tatamy said: 06z Ensemble mean is not on board with this one https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/?parms=2021112906-GEFS-NE-winter-meansnacc-198-0-100 Yep it's flatter. I wouldn't be shocked to see it trend flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yep it's flatter. I wouldn't be shocked to see it trend flatter. It is going to take absolutely perfect timing to pull off a snowstorm next Monday; +NAO, +AO, -PNA, +EPO, neutral WPO, roaring PAC jet. Not saying it can’t happen but when you depend on really good luck and perfect timing it normally doesn’t work out very well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2021 Author Share Posted November 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It is going to take absolutely perfect timing to pull off a snowstorm next Monday; +NAO, +AO, -PNA, +EPO, neutral WPO, roaring PAC jet. Not saying it can’t happen but when you depend on really good luck and perfect timing it normally doesn’t work out very well The interior always have the best shot. It is a long shot for our area but timing is key like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 12 hours ago, LibertyBell said: so we end up with a compromise between two different patterns, because the ridge out west would be really good for us but because of the jet trying to flatten it out the trough gets displaced northeast of us It’s exactly the type of fast Pacific Jet pattern across the US that we get this time of year with no blocking and a strong -PDO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s exactly the type of fast Pacific Jet pattern across the US that we get this time of year with no blocking and a strong -PDO. Good morning! Question - perhaps I am not remembering correctly, however it seems as though almost all La Ninas have snowy Marches. Now, I know the shorter wavelengths in March mitigate the background state (enso), however I feel like El nino Marches teams to be warm and snowless compared to La Ninas. Is there a particular reason for the above? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Good morning! Question - perhaps I am not remembering correctly, however it seems as though almost all La Ninas have snowy Marches. Now, I know the shorter wavelengths in March mitigate the background state (enso), however I feel like El nino Marches teams to be warm and snowless compared to La Ninas. Is there a particular reason for the above? Thanks. Because normally the Niña stacks warm water in the mjo cold phases for March. P3-4-5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 39 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The interior always have the best shot. It is a long shot for our area but timing is key like you said. If you want to dig around in the models the 06z Ensemble run has 3 members that dig the short wave that is progged to pass across northern NE this weekend to a much greater degree than the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 hour ago, BxEngine said: Use PMs or the vendor thread to discuss that lunatic, i dont care. This thread is for the weather. Good morning BxE. Could you narrow it down a bit. That’s kind of a wide net. As always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 We need some storms-been a dry pattern with just a series of cold fronts with some light rains ahead of their passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: We need some storms-been a dry pattern with just a series of cold fronts with some light rains ahead of their passage. You won't get much with fast Pacific jet pattern. You don't even get the big inland cutters due to how fast the flow is. There's a good cold source to our north though so we end up on the cooler side of things but it'll never get very cold due to state of pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2021 Author Share Posted November 29, 2021 He changed his mind fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: He changed his mind fast I unfollowed him last winter he’s awful. His tweets are bipolar and it seems like he hasn’t a clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2021 Author Share Posted November 29, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: We need some storms-been a dry pattern with just a series of cold fronts with some light rains ahead of their passage. Point and click is completely dry for the next 7 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 55 minutes ago, psv88 said: Point and click is completely dry for the next 7 days cutter on the GFS next Monday...at this point that would be exciting.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Here are your snow flurries: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 Big as* graupel for about 37 seconds in Brightwaters. 42 deg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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