RippleEffect Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 26 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the gfs shows the problem with a -pna. this wave goes south of us but is too weak and we get light rain. the next wave amplifies and cuts too far west everything trends south this year so this is nowhere near the exact solution! this will change 10 times until it actually happens! 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: I feel like March has surpassed December as a legitimate snowfall month. Come to think of it, March avg snowfall usually is greater than Dec anyway. I remember when the normal Dec snow was around 2.5", then the next normals update jumped to under 5", thanks to more of the snowy 2000s in the mix. March avg I always remember being around 5". I don't know what the 90-2020 Dec avgs are by month. The difference between Dec and Mar has become more pronounced now, but I never look at Dec as reliably snowy. It can get decent snow but it feels equally unsurprising to get very little or a trace. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 15 minutes ago, RippleEffect said: everything trends south this year so this is nowhere near the exact solution! this will change 10 times until it actually happens! Agree This will change many more times but his post is a valid concern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Agree This will change many more times but his post is a valid concern. agreed wish we had a +PNA that would give us a nice great lakes trough! we'll see what happens. still very far away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 16 minutes ago, dWave said: Come to think of it, March avg snowfall usually is greater than Dec anyway. I remember when the normal Dec snow was around 2.5", then the next normals update jumped to under 5", thanks to more of the snowy 2000s in the mix. March avg I always remember being around 5". I don't know what the 90-2020 Dec avgs are by month. The difference between Dec and Mar has become more pronounced now, but I never look at Dec as reliably snowy. It can get decent snow but it feels equally unsurprising to get very little or a trace. Yeah 2000 and 2010 along with 02, 03, 05 and 09 really skewed those averages. March has remained fairly steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 When will this model be Euthanized? Meanwhile back at the Ranch, the CFSv2 is still gathering firewood for a January lockdown: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 On 12/13/2021 at 9:42 AM, forkyfork said: that still shows a western trough which is going to be a buzzkill imo No doubt. We will need to weaken the -PNA enough in late December into early January for the -EPO and -NAO to work for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 12 hours ago, MJO812 said: CMC just got upgraded so let's see how it fares this winter. Those snowfall maps are the equivalent of projecting DeGrom to have 300 innings pitched next season... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 25 minutes ago, bluewave said: No doubt. We will need to weaken the -PNA enough in late December into early January for the -EPO and -NAO to work for us. We can all remember how the models kept showing LR snowstorms through most of December 2010. We had an epic -NAO and -AO but the -PNA shut down the snowfall until the PNA went positive around Christmas. That was a very cold pattern through most of the month but the -PNA messed with the favorable storm tracks. -PNA - no sign of weakening anytime soon... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: -PNA - no sign of weakening anytime soon... Combine that with a negative NAO and negative EPO and we should be good. That's not really that negative to be alarmed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 47 minutes ago, RippleEffect said: agreed wish we had a +PNA that would give us a nice great lakes trough! we'll see what happens. still very far away. We don't want a positive PNA along with a negative epo , AO and NAO. Suppression would be a risk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 49 minutes ago, CIK62 said: When will this model be Euthanized? Good afternoon CIK62. I believe it’s on line with me but it may take quite a few years. The line is moving very slow. As always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 Euro lost the 21st storm No phase Rather see that this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro lost the 21st storm No phase Rather see that this far out crappy pattern for the foreseeable future. I'd be happy with a cutter for the time being to break up the dry regime.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro lost the 21st storm No phase Rather see that this far out Id rather a big rainstorm than nothing. It's been so boring other than the wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 really great look for us here with the huge -NAO developing. yes, there is a -PNA, but the persistent deep trough over Nova Scotia will likely provide significant confluence, making it difficult for storms to cut W of us a +PNA with that kind of block would likely lead to suppression (good for the MA/SE) until it decays later on 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: We don't want a positive PNA along with a negative epo , AO and NAO. Suppression would be a risk. Not true. We absolutely want a +PNA. Suppression is always much less of a risk in the NYC than is a hugger. That’s why it never snows in DC and does in New England. Always take the arctic cold and it’ll find a way to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: crappy pattern for the foreseeable future. I'd be happy with a cutter for the time being to break up the dry regime.... Pattern looks active after this week with the mjo rolling along. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: really great look for us here with the huge -NAO developing. yes, there is a -PNA, but the persistent deep trough over Nova Scotia will likely provide significant confluence, making it difficult for storms to cut W of us a +PNA with that kind of block would likely lead to suppression (good for the MA/SE) until it decays later on Great post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 Eps shows the signal for the 21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Pattern looks active after this week with the mjo rolling along. Let's hope. Just want to see things move up in time vs always being 10 days out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Let's hope. Just want to see things move up in time vs always being 10 days out Same man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 33 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps shows the signal for the 21 it's 8 days away look in 4 days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Forget about eight days from now…beautifully warm out 55F Busted every forecast for my area. Impressive to say the least 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Pattern still looks like crap. Basically March like all winter long. Better for New England 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 53* here, gorgeous December day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 27 minutes ago, RippleEffect said: it's 8 days away look in 4 days I said the signal is there. Nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: really great look for us here with the huge -NAO developing. yes, there is a -PNA, but the persistent deep trough over Nova Scotia will likely provide significant confluence, making it difficult for storms to cut W of us a +PNA with that kind of block would likely lead to suppression (good for the MA/SE) until it decays later on Long range eps is also looking better today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 The extended EPS is -NAO/-EPO/-PNA from late December into January. Dec 20-27 Dec 27 to Jan 3 Jan 3 to Jan 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 4 hours ago, forkyfork said: the gfs shows the problem with a -pna. this wave goes south of us but is too weak and we get light rain. the next wave amplifies and cuts too far west A big concern for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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