MJO812 Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 Nice cold pattern on the GFS Almost showed a Christmas miracle Cmc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 CMC just got upgraded so let's see how it fares this winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 31 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nice cold pattern on the GFS Almost showed a Christmas miracle Cmc If I had a white Christmas for every time that actually happened only to be followed by a 60° Christmas eve Grinch storm, that would be a lot more white Christmases than we've actually seen. Still, this year it would seem like a fair trade-off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 8 hours ago, Rjay said: If he starts trolling the Mets he will be gone. He's fine for now though. I have always loved Brooklynwx99's optimism. I hope he never changes. I was not trolling anyone. My point is this, the hype about the upcoming pattern on twitter is crazy. This is not even close to 95-96 as some are saying there, which was a classic KU monster snowstorm pattern. 95-96 was a 1st year Niña, coming off a Nino, you had ++PNA galore, +PDO and a +PMM, which lead to a Nino like STJ. Super west-based -NAO, strong -AO, strong -EPO/-WPO and it was off to the races. This winter, aside from there being a La Niña is night and day different, the biggest difference being the huge RNA/-PNA, -PDO/-PMM and we have an extremely well coupled Niña, unlike 95-96 where it barely ever coupled. I respectfully disagree with some about a -PNA not mattering, it’s going to help pump the SE ridge and given the ridiculously warm SSTs off the coast, it’s just going to give it more juice. If there’s any kind of thunderstorm blowup in the SE during a storm formation it will really boost the ridge and then you will have cutting issues. Just my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 So argue about it on twitter. Problem solved. The 7 or 8 logical fallacies employed in every argument here on both sides is tiresome and derails every thread. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 21 hours ago, bluewave said: The 3” snowfall marker for December in NYC has only worked with La Niña winters since they are supposed to be front-loaded. It’s not something we can us use in El Niño’s since they usually are back-loaded. But since this year we are getting a February strong -PNA pattern in December, it may or may not be valid. If we can’t make it to 3” before the end of December, that would put us in the below normal category for what we have since the 1990s. I want to see if we're getting a February pattern now what we will get when it actually is February. Do you subscribe to the idea that patterns only last a maximum of 8 weeks? I do, I've looked at different historic patterns over the years and it's very rare that anything lasts longer than that, but the key is to score when the pattern changes. The pattern did change in 01-02 in January for example, but we didn't score, the Carolinas did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 16 minutes ago, BxEngine said: So argue about it on twitter. Problem solved. The 7 or 8 logical fallacies employed in every argument here on both sides is tiresome and derails every thread. that's right, plenty of arguments on Twitter it would be right at home there. In the larger scheme of things it doesn't even actually matter, no one can control the weather (yet) so it's not worth arguing about. Rainman is right about la ninas after el ninos being the best possible combo, it's obvious from the historical record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly sunny, breezy, and mild. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 56° Philadelphia: 56° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 44.9°; 15-Year: 45.6° Newark: 30-Year: 45.4°; 15-Year: 46.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 46.6°; 15-Year: 47.5° The unseasonably mild weather will continue into the start of the weekend. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 In very warm winter patterns like we have now, it usually takes a series of steps to shift the pattern to something more favorable. Some models try to rush things. So it’s often better to look at the more conservative outcomes before the pattern flips. New England usually cashes in before our area does. So that is the place to look at first if you want to start seeing more wintery outcomes. The good news is that the longer range guidance continues to indicate that the pattern right after Christmas is showing improvements. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 45degs.(41/50), or +9>>>+6 nowadays. Reached 56*{Midnite} and 50* during the PM. Today: 49-53, wind w. and breezy early, m. clear. GFS has 10" on the 22nd. 41*(48%RH) here at 6am. 44* at 9am. 51* at 1pm. 53* at 3:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 21 minutes ago, bluewave said: In very warm winter patterns like we have now, it usually takes a series of steps to shift the pattern to something more favorable. Some models try to rush things. So it’s often better to look at the more conservative outcomes before the pattern flips. New England usually cashes in before our area does. So that is the place to look at first if you want to start seeing more wintery outcomes. The good news is that the longer range guidance continues to indicate that the pattern right after Christmas is showing improvements. Doesnt that follow the general rule that 8 weeks is the maximum length a given pattern can last? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Doesnt that follow the general rule that 8 weeks is the maximum length a given pattern can last? There really is not set time limit on how long a pattern can last. While some patterns only last weeks, other can extend to a year or even longer. Plus you can have sub patterns existing within even larger patterns. The larger over the top warm pattern ran from last December until this November with only short breaks. This month is something new with the warmest departures to our south. So any cool down to the pattern will begin to press from the north rather than the Southeast cooling off first. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Gefs and eps have traded places. Now eps a little faster with the mjo it looks like. Still feeling like after new years for a potentially really nice - NAO and perhaps AO too. To me, ensembles are showing a gradually improving pattern. Which makes sense with slowly moving mjo. We'll see, steady as she goes for now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 Our 1st threat around the 21st ? Gfs is now on board along with the Euro and CMC. Euro was the warmest out of the bunch. As always the interior will be favored but we will track it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 25 minutes ago, bluewave said: There really is not set time limit on how long a pattern can last. While some patterns only last weeks, other can extend to a year or even longer. Plus you can have sub patterns existing within even larger patterns. The larger over the top warm pattern ran from last December until this November with only short breaks. This month is something new with the warmest departures to our south. So any cool down to the pattern will begin to press from the north rather than the Southeast cooling off first. well that would be a good thing, if we had the warmest anomalies to our north I'd be a lot more concerned about the subpatterns, isn't that what happened in 2001-02? We couldn't capitalize on the change because we went from a cutter pattern to a suppressed pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 25 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Gefs and eps have traded places. Now eps a little faster with the mjo it looks like. Still feeling like after new years for a potentially really nice - NAO and perhaps AO too. To me, ensembles are showing a gradually improving pattern. Which makes sense with slowly moving mjo. We'll see, steady as she goes for now. a lot of people I've talked to aren't fazed by the mild December. Isn't this how December always is now? Is what I'm getting Then they go on to say that winter really begins in January, really January 20th (since we've gotten a lot of big snowstorms around that time.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: a lot of people I've talked to aren't fazed by the mild December. Isn't this how December always is now? Is what I'm getting Then they go on to say that winter really begins in January, really January 20th (since we've gotten a lot of big snowstorms around that time.) If you are waiting for winter on 1/20, you have a shit winter. Plus, the last several years have featured 3 week shutout patterns…many of which occurred in January. Even that frigid new years week a few years ago led to 2-3 weeks of AN I think we need a really good pattern or we get nothing. It isnt as simple as winter start in later… Novembers have really been pretty good. unfortunately it’s a waste of November. December has warmed dramatically 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: If you are waiting for winter on 1/20, you have a shit winter. Plus, the last several years have featured 3 week shutout patterns…many of which occurred in January. Even that frigid new years week a few years ago led to 2-3 weeks of AN I think we need a really good pattern or we get nothing. It isnt as simple as winter start in later… Novembers have really been pretty good. unfortunately it’s a waste of November. December has warmed dramatically Our winter is down to 2 months ( sometimes get lucky in March) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: a lot of people I've talked to aren't fazed by the mild December. Isn't this how December always is now? Is what I'm getting Then they go on to say that winter really begins in January, really January 20th (since we've gotten a lot of big snowstorms around that time.) It’s easier to get pattern improvements after January 20th in El Niño years since they are back-loaded like 15-16. But we want to start putting snow points on the board by the end of December in La Ninas to reach normal snowfall. That’s why the December the 3” rule for NYC has worked out every La Niña since the 1990s. La Niña years that we have to wait until after January 20th for a decent snow like 99-00 usually underperform in the snowfall department. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Our winter is down to 2 months ( sometimes get lucky in March) I feel like March has surpassed December as a legitimate snowfall month. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 NAO looks better this morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 Epo looks good on the 6z gefs around the timeframe of the storm for next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Building on yesterday's post concerning the pattern evolution, the prospects of a colder than normal start to January have continued to increase. The MJO has now moved into Phase 7 at a very high amplitude (2.000 or above). The number of cases where the MJO moved into Phase 7 at amplitudes of 2 or above (n=3) or 1.75 or above (n=4) during December 10-20 is small. However, those cases overwhelmingly saw January 1-10 wind up colder or perhaps much colder than normal. January 1-10 Temperatures for New York City and Philadelphia: New York City: Mean: 26.1° Lowest: 21.2°, 2018 Highest: 34.1°, 2002 1991-2020 Mean: 34.8° Philadelphia: Mean: 26.1° Lowest: 20.7°, 2018 Highest: 34.5°, 2002 1991-2020 Mean: 35.2° 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Eps really trending better in the 11-15 day. Stronger -nao which is muting the -pna. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 3 hours ago, bluewave said: In very warm winter patterns like we have now, it usually takes a series of steps to shift the pattern to something more favorable. Some models try to rush things. So it’s often better to look at the more conservative outcomes before the pattern flips. New England usually cashes in before our area does. So that is the place to look at first if you want to start seeing more wintery outcomes. The good news is that the longer range guidance continues to indicate that the pattern right after Christmas is showing improvements. that still shows a western trough which is going to be a buzzkill imo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Eps really trending better in the 11-15 day. Stronger -nao which is muting the -pna. Really good sign A negative PNA isn't bad at all if we get a negative NAO. We need the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Really good sign A negative PNA isn't bad at all if we get a negative NAO. We need the ridge. not when it's a full latitude trough down to san diego Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: not when it's a full latitude trough down to san diego Agree with you there Hopefully the models are wrong with that and they lessen the trough out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 the gfs shows the problem with a -pna. this wave goes south of us but is too weak and we get light rain. the next wave amplifies and cuts too far west 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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