December 2021

[EasternLI]

Don't know if many are familiar with the ecmwf cluster analysis. It's UK centric, so not much use with the Pacific. However, you can still see what's happening locally. So there was one cluster on the 00z eps. Granted, a minority of the members, but nevertheless there was something mixed in there. Is it a longshot, absolutely, but it's not totally 0% yet. 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Terrible performance for the last storm.  

I feel good about our 1st snow threat around Christmas ( give or take a few days)

Anything too amped will cut in this pattern leading up to Christmas. A system that is too weak will get sheared out and suppressed by the fast Pacific flow. Thread the needle will be a challenge for us but easier in New England. But any snow here at all is a big win in such a hostile Pacific pattern.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Seems like there is a lot of potential for a +500dm block in the 15day range.. either -PNA, -WPO, or -NAO, I wonder if it's associated with a 10mb warming, if so that's a ~Jan 20-25 -AO/-NAO signal. 

[brooklynwx99]

not sure why there’s so much doom and gloom with this kind of blocking showing up but I suppose you’ll always be disappointed if you want a perfect pattern

also some of the goalposts have been shifted in here a bit. first, it’s “there’s gonna be a +AO/+NAO/-PNA” now it’s “the -PNA is solely going to ruin the pattern” when blocking like that does have the ability to overwhelm otherwise unfavorable pattern

[StormchaserChuck!]

This really isn't bad.. the -PNA it seems reaches up to pour into -WPO and -EPO regions, with a big -NAO, and I think the cycle become wetter this could be a fun time unless it trends back. 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html

By 384hr, that's a really solid-NAO, and -WPO seems to be pinching off

[qg_omega]

32 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not sure why there’s so much doom and gloom with this kind of blocking showing up but I suppose you’ll always be disappointed if you want a perfect pattern

also some of the goalposts have been shifted in here a bit. first, it’s “there’s gonna be a +AO/+NAO/-PNA” now it’s “the -PNA is solely going to ruin the pattern” when blocking like that does have the ability to overwhelm otherwise unfavorable pattern

RNA pattern, looks good for New England.  Blocking also will likely disappear as we move forward in time 

[bluewave]

44 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not sure why there’s so much doom and gloom with this kind of blocking showing up but I suppose you’ll always be disappointed if you want a perfect pattern

 

also some of the goalposts have been shifted in here a bit. first, it’s “there’s gonna be a +AO/+NAO/-PNA” now it’s “the -PNA is solely going to ruin the pattern” when blocking like that does have the ability to overwhelm otherwise unfavorable pattern

You have to realize that the discussion we are having is about the pattern leading up to Christmas. Not sure what you mean by changing goalposts.The post Christmas pattern potential has been discussed here at length. The hope has always been that the Pacific can relax enough to flatten out the SE Ridge. Getting a MJO closer to phase 8 with a +AAM could be helpful. So try going back and reading more before you leave a snarky quick post telling us how we are all gloom and doom.

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

RNA pattern, looks good for New England.  Blocking also will likely disappear as we move forward in time 

You really don't know that at all

 

[RippleEffect]

euro shows some potential dight before christmas the problem is the low that's located around the midwest and it's pushing the high that we desperately need otherwise the nor'easter is going to cut!

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, RippleEffect said:

euro shows some potential dight before christmas the problem is the low that's located around the midwest and it's pushing the high that we desperately need otherwise the nor'easter is going to cut!

Ensembles show the potential 

[IrishRob17]

27 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

RNA pattern, looks good for New England.  Blocking also will likely disappear as we move forward in time 

What was your high temp yesterday?

[binbisso]

From Webb

'PNA/-NAO patterns like this can often look deceptively warm in the extended b/c of the SE US ridge at 500mb. However, they're notorious for sneaky backdoor cold fronts & cold air damming along the eastern seaboard, that usually doesn't show up until we're in the medium range.

[qg_omega]

5 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

What was your high temp yesterday?

85

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, binbisso said:

From Webb

'PNA/-NAO patterns like this can often look deceptively warm in the extended b/c of the SE US ridge at 500mb. However, they're notorious for sneaky backdoor cold fronts & cold air damming along the eastern seaboard, that usually doesn't show up until we're in the medium range.

models have been flip flopping and unreliable past day 3 -5 for weeks now at least - we won't have a handle on the week leading up to Christmas till later this week IMO....also all those calls from the usual suspects in their winter outlooks for a fast start to winter here was a mistake.........

[binbisso]

I believe we've had negative PNA patterns and above normal snowfall here.  When other indices are favorable I believe a negative PNA can add to the potential for snowfall here (many SW in the flow) especially  indices like the AO/NAO.  It's extremely hard to get the perfect pattern at 500mb  But the pattern starting from around December 20th onwards looks serviceable

[ecovers94]

 Popping in to ask: What is happening with overnight lows that it has yet to go below 31 degrees... even in 2015 we had that happen? Why can’t it happen? What is going on? It's bizarre and kind of concerning.

[Vice-Regent]

15 minutes ago, ecovers94 said:

 Popping in to ask: What is happening with overnight lows that it has yet to go below 31 degrees... even in 2015 we had that happen? Why can’t it happen? What is going on? It's bizarre and kind of concerning.

The Anthropogenic warming signal is so strong now that it's showing up in overnight temperature minimums.

[Stormlover74]

12 minutes ago, ecovers94 said:

 Popping in to ask: What is happening with overnight lows that it has yet to go below 31 degrees... even in 2015 we had that happen? Why can’t it happen? What is going on? It's bizarre and kind of concerning.

Nope not til 1/4/16 that winter

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, Rjay said:

What pattern?  If anyone is ignoring the pattern on the models, it's you.  Just peeking at the ensembles the geps and gefs still have a west coast trough and se ridge at 300+ hrs.  The eps looks a bit chilly at day 10 but a wc trough is about to set up which will pump the se ridge.  

Here come the “it’s only warm aloft” posts. The severely -PNA full latitude trough in the west, as depicted is a huge problem. It’s a cutter pattern through and through and I don’t care what the abysmally awful GFS shows, there’s no way to sugar coat that look in the long range…huge -PNA and strong SE ridge city, not only that, the blazing SSTs along and off the east coast just act to sustain and positively feedback into that SE ridge and the WAR. Once you get any kind of thunderstorm blowup in the SE, it’s only going to act to pump the SE ridge even more. The pattern depicted in the long range is not anything close to arctic cold or a KU pattern for us

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Here come the “it’s only warm aloft” posts. The severely -PNA full latitude trough in the west, as depicted is a huge problem. It’s a cutter pattern through and through and I don’t care what the abysmally awful GFS shows, there’s no way to sugar coat that look in the long range…huge -PNA and strong SE ridge city, not only that, the blazing SSTs along and off the east coast just act to sustain and positively feedback into that SE ridge and the WAR. Once you get any kind of thunderstorm blowup in the SE, it’s only going to act to pump the SE ridge even more. The pattern depicted in the long range is not anything close to arctic cold or a KU pattern for us

Who is looking for a KU? The pattern depicted after next week will be conducive for snow. 

[MJO812]

33 minutes ago, binbisso said:

I believe we've had negative PNA patterns and above normal snowfall here.  When other indices are favorable I believe a negative PNA can add to the potential for snowfall here (many SW in the flow) especially  indices like the AO/NAO.  It's extremely hard to get the perfect pattern at 500mb  But the pattern starting from around December 20th onwards looks serviceable

Agree

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Who is looking for a KU? The pattern depicted after next week will be conducive for snow. 

For central and northern New England? Yes I would agree 

[ecovers94]

21 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

The Anthropogenic warming signal is so strong now that it's showing up in overnight temperature minimums.

There must be something specific here,  short-term climactically, because it's been colder in Europe so far this winter. I'm wondering what this is

[snowman19]

41 minutes ago, binbisso said:

From Webb

'PNA/-NAO patterns like this can often look deceptively warm in the extended b/c of the SE US ridge at 500mb. However, they're notorious for sneaky backdoor cold fronts & cold air damming along the eastern seaboard, that usually doesn't show up until we're in the medium range.

That’s a cutter pattern not an east coast snowstorm pattern

[Vice-Regent]

Just now, ecovers94 said:

There must be something specific here,  short-term climactically, because it's been colder in Europe so far this winter. I'm wondering what this is

Also a cold Europe is bad for us. Scary when the AGW signal is overwhelming the short-term variability in the system.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

For central and northern New England? Yes I would agree 

Dude just stop

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

That’s a cutter pattern not an east coast snowstorm pattern

Not with a NAO and AO block

Try again

Those blocks would force any storm that tries to ram into it to redevelop.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not sure why there’s so much doom and gloom with this kind of blocking showing up but I suppose you’ll always be disappointed if you want a perfect pattern

also some of the goalposts have been shifted in here a bit. first, it’s “there’s gonna be a +AO/+NAO/-PNA” now it’s “the -PNA is solely going to ruin the pattern” when blocking like that does have the ability to overwhelm otherwise unfavorable pattern

Snowman19 should get banned for laughing at a meteorologist's post. 

It's the same people trolling every winter

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's the same people trolling every winter

People making posts discussing the current actual pattern is not trolling. 

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Snowman19 should get banned for laughing at a meteorologist's post. 

It's the same people trolling every winter

You are going to get cutters with a full latitude -PNA trough in the west and a SE ridge. Keep following the wish casters and believe that a huge cold and snowstorm pattern is inbound. It’s hilarious