December 2021

[EasternLI]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

18-19 was more Niña-like with the strong -PNA trough over the Western US since the El Niño never coupled. 

 https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall

 

Also WQBO that year. Another strike against mjo modulation of the pattern. Propagation too, for that matter. In light of recent research, enso along with QBO are very important factors to consider. I've taken up the hobby of reading research papers over the summer the last few years. I've been able to gain some good insight into certain areas from this exercise. The QBO has been a focal point recently. Apparently, it's quite important as a modulator.

2018  -1.39  -1.50  -1.59  -1.75  -1.84  -1.95  -1.82  -1.12  -0.36   0.15   0.59   0.90
2019   0.89   0.84   0.98   1.09   1.32   1.54   1.44   1.36   1.12   0.97   0.73   0.38
2020  -0.05  -0.18  -0.33  -0.41  -0.27   0.14   0.58   0.94   1.10   1.26   1.22   1.09
2021   0.99   0.81   0.82   0.43   0.16  -0.20  -0.52  -0.58  -0.90  -1.18  -1.30-

[Brian5671]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You know the WAA is impressive in December when Newark is only 2° under the record high so far with overcast conditions.

11 Dec 12:51 pm

63

just got a wind shift here to the SW and temps jumped about 10 degrees up to 56 now

[Allsnow]

 

[ForestHillWx]

54 in Chester, NJ dense fog. 

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Also WQBO that year. Another strike against mjo modulation of the pattern. Propagation too, for that matter. In light of recent research, enso along with QBO are very important factors to consider. I've taken up the hobby of reading research papers over the summer the last few years. I've been able to gain some good insight into certain areas from this exercise. The QBO has been a focal point recently. Apparently, it's quite important as a modulator.

2018  -1.39  -1.50  -1.59  -1.75  -1.84  -1.95  -1.82  -1.12  -0.36   0.15   0.59   0.90
2019   0.89   0.84   0.98   1.09   1.32   1.54   1.44   1.36   1.12   0.97   0.73   0.38
2020  -0.05  -0.18  -0.33  -0.41  -0.27   0.14   0.58   0.94   1.10   1.26   1.22   1.09
2021   0.99   0.81   0.82   0.43   0.16  -0.20  -0.52  -0.58  -0.90  -1.18  -1.30-

No doubt. Experts that study the MJO interactions for their whole careers acknowledge all the various moving parts involved. Sometimes we get great results and other times we don’t. I certainly hope we can get a MJO 8 to shift our pattern to something better. But at the same time, I realize that there are other factors which have been driving the record Pacific Jet pattern. So I will keep expectations low and hope we can see something better by the end of December and start of January. 

[binbisso]

60S for 6 hours today and probably on Thursday Plus 5 or so for the rest of the week I think people are gonna fail on calling for a record warm December.

Edit:  Plus probably very little sunshine during this warm up.  What a way to run a torch pattern

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, binbisso said:

60S for 6 hours today and probably on Thursday Plus 5 or so for the rest of the week I think people are gonna fail on calling for a record warm December.

Edit:  Plus probably very little sunshine during this warm up.  What a way to run a torch pattern

This December has already experienced record warmth across a wide expanse of the US and it’s only the 11th. So I am not sure what you are talking about. Your 60s argument for a few hours makes as much sense saying that last December wasn’t snowy since it only really snowed hard for a day or two.The record warmth this month is a big part of why the tornado devastation occurred. We had a wintertime Jet stream clashing with out of season warmth.

[binbisso]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This December has already experienced record warmth across a wide expanse of the US and it’s only the 11th. So I am not sure what you are talking about. Your 60s argument for a few hours makes as much sense saying that last December wasn’t snowy since it only really snowed hard for a day or two.The record warmth this month is a big part of why the tornado devastation occurred. We had a wintertime Jet stream clashing with out of season warmth.

 I was specifically talking about our area I could care less what happens in Chicago or Omaha   +1.4 in the park through the 1st 10 days of December is not impressive even in the new 30 year Cycle.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, binbisso said:

 I was specifically talking about our area I could care less what happens in Chicago or Omaha   +1.4 in the park through the 1st 10 days of December is not impressive even in the new 30 year Cycle.

The first 10 days were never supposed to be the warmest period. That begins today 

[binbisso]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The first 10 days were never supposed to be the warmest period. That begins today 

True.  However this warm up looks muted may be lasting 5 or 6 days.  Probably not wearing shorts and a T-shirt any time this week although from the post you read on here you would think that was gonna happen. the poster from Coney island is saying plus 14 for the next 8 days let's see if that verifies

[Rjay]

13 minutes ago, binbisso said:

 I was specifically talking about our area I could care less what happens in Chicago or Omaha   +1.4 in the park through the 1st 10 days of December is not impressive even in the new 30 year Cycle.

That's what makes it more impressive imo

[EasternLI]

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

No doubt. Experts that study the MJO interactions for their whole careers acknowledge all the various moving parts involved. Sometimes we get great results and other times we don’t. I certainly hope we can get a MJO 8 to shift our pattern to something better. But at the same time, I realize that there are other factors which have been driving the record Pacific Jet pattern. So I will keep expectations low and hope we can see something better by the end of December and start of January. 

Totally fair thoughts. I'm just posting my own thoughts based on the reading that I've done. I'm more curious about how these thoughts work out more than anything else. It's just a fascinating case this year, and I'm already enjoying watching the progress. Always more to learn. 

[binbisso]

As we head towards peak climo end of the month through January we don't need super cold temperatures to snow and we probably would want a hint of a Southeast ridge.  We don't want the Front blowing through Jacksonville we want the baroclinic zone to be near us

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

You know the WAA is impressive in December when Newark is only 2° under the record high so far with overcast conditions.

11 Dec 12:51 pm

63

BLM is in the 60s now as well. 

[binbisso]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

That's what makes it more impressive imo

 Agree to disagree. went through this this yesterday what would make you think that we are going to stop this raging warming climate.  I'd be more impressed with A day in the teens than a record breaking 70ﾟ

[the_other_guy]

Here are the High Temps for NYC from this week in 2015

 

61 66 66 66 68 52 59

Lets cut the sensationalist garbage already.

 

It’s warm enough without the exaggerations needed. 

[winterwx21]

64 degrees here right now.

[binbisso]

3 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Here are the High Temps for NYC from this week in 2015

 

61 66 66 66 68 52 59

Lets cut the sensationalist garbage already.

 

It’s warm enough without the exaggerations needed. 

 Yes I agree we know it's warm and it's only gonna be getting warmer why is everyone so impressed with this is beyond me.  what makes anyone think we are going to revert back to any kind of normal or cooler than normal temperature regime going forward

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, binbisso said:

As we head towards peak climo end of the month through January we don't need super cold temperatures to snow and we probably would want a hint of a Southeast ridge.  We don't want the Front blowing through Jacksonville we want the baroclinic zone to be near us

that is very true-too much cold usually leads to high and dry

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, binbisso said:

 Agree to disagree. went through this this yesterday what would make you think that we are going to stop this raging warming climate.  I'd be more impressed with A day in the teens than a record breaking 70ﾟ

 

On 12/10/2021 at 10:32 AM, forkyfork said:

it hasn't been that warm because of climate change. 

The baseline is already high.  Once we get into positive territory we usually hit a top 10 warmest month.   It's gotten ridiculous. 

 

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, binbisso said:

 Yes I agree we know it's warm and it's only gonna be getting warmer why is everyone so impressed with this is beyond me.   I'll say it again what makes anyone think we are going to revert back to any kind of normal or cooler than normal temperature regime going forward

I don't think anyone has said we wouldn't except Snowman. 

[binbisso]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

The baseline is already high.  Once we get into positive territory we usually hit a top 10 warmest month.   It's gotten ridiculous. 

 

 I agree and understand 100% The baseline is only gonna be going higher. 

[forkyfork]

9 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Here are the High Temps for NYC from this week in 2015

 

61 66 66 66 68 52 59

Lets cut the sensationalist garbage already.

 

It’s warm enough without the exaggerations needed. 

i thought that month didn't count

[MJO812]

63 here in Brooklyn 

[greenmtnwx]

27 minutes ago, binbisso said:

As we head towards peak climo end of the month through January we don't need super cold temperatures to snow and we probably would want a hint of a Southeast ridge.  We don't want the Front blowing through Jacksonville we want the baroclinic zone to be near us

I disagree in the New York City area you want as cold as you can get because we rarely get suppression but we often aren’t cold enough. In my experience living 47 years here it’s deep arctic cold that usually brings memorable snow and wintry periods. 

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

I disagree in the New York City area you want as cold as you can get because we rarely get suppression but we often aren’t cold enough. In my experience living 47 years here it’s deep arctic cold that usually brings memorable snow and wintry periods. 

We've definitely has some really cold snowstorms but I feel like the i95 corridor gets it's best chances when the cold relaxes a little bit. 

[bluewave]

33 minutes ago, Rjay said:

BLM is in the 60s now as well. 

Newark just tied the record high.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
241 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2021

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT NEWARK NJ...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 65 WAS TIED AT NEWARK NJ TODAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 65 SET IN 1971.

AN UPDATE WILL BE SENT IF A HIGHER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED.

[SnoSki14]

34 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Here are the High Temps for NYC from this week in 2015

 

61 66 66 66 68 52 59

Lets cut the sensationalist garbage already.

 

It’s warm enough without the exaggerations needed. 

If you have to compare it to December 2015 a +11 month then you've already lost the argument.

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

All the ensembles continue the strong -PNA pattern until close to Christmas. So this keeps pumping the SE Ridge. Maybe some improvement after Christmas.

 

 

There have been a few surprises so far since mid-November….remember the “unanimous” predictions for a very cold and snowy end of November through mid-late December? Then there was predictions of a major SSW, SPV split and a record weak SPV for December?……we have anything but a record weak SPV right now: 

 

[donsutherland1]

Newark has now reached 66. The old record was 65, which was set in 1966 and tied in 1971.