bluewave Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 All the ensembles continue the strong -PNA pattern until close to Christmas. So this keeps pumping the SE Ridge. Maybe some improvement after Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 Just now, bluewave said: All the ensembles continue the strong -PNA pattern until close to Christmas. So this keeps pumping the SE Ridge. Maybe some improvement after Christmas. Thanks! I really do think that the NAO and EPO can work to give us at least a couple chances for snow. Probably nothing great, however nothing wrong with 1 to 3 or 2 to 4. We probably get another MJO cycle to 8 later in winter as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2021 Author Share Posted December 11, 2021 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: All the ensembles continue the strong -PNA pattern until close to Christmas. So this keeps pumping the SE Ridge. Maybe some improvement after Christmas. How about the AO and NAO? A negative PNA isn't the end of the world . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: not humans-- the mass extinction is of almost every non-domesticated species on the planet, half the species that exist now will be extinct by 2100, including pollinators, our usage of pesticides and fertilizers, etc. The Monarch Butterfly is about to go on the endangered list This is how I wrapped up my ecology class this semester. It is certainly depressing. Also all the plastics everywhere. This is an alarming video of it. We have to think about our place in the world and stop with just the convenience of one time use plastics. Our planet is truly amazing and we are linked directly with it. From climate to our health. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 Just now, JustinRP37 said: This is how I wrapped up my ecology class this semester. It is certainly depressing. Also all the plastics everywhere. This is an alarming video of it. We have to think about our place in the world and stop with just the convenience of one time use plastics. Our planet is truly amazing and we are linked directly with it. From climate to our health. the plastics are inside us too-- microplastics have been found in our urine and blood and there's mounting evidence that they are toxic. Logically we always knew they would be, it just took some time for the evidence to come in. Also pesticides like chlorpyrifos, which damages brains of children. It's banned in NY, CA, HI but not in other states yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: How about the AO and NAO? A negative PNA isn't the end of the world . you need shorter wavelengths like we get in March, which is when you can have troughs on both coasts. you can still get moderate sized snowstorms in a -PNA here by then Speaking of which does anyone (Don, Uncle?) have a list of the largest snowstorms we've had in the most extreme -PNA and which month they happened in? That would be very useful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: How about the AO and NAO? A negative PNA isn't the end of the world . The NAO is more east based up until near Christmas. So this allows the -PNA to pump the SE Ridge. We hope the GEFS is correct about it pressing more SW after Christmas. That’s what we need to flatten the SE Ridge. But the EPS and GEPS don’t show this pattern near the end of their runs yet like the GEFS does. They are much weaker with the -NAO. Models diverge for after Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 Need to continue to see trends of the pna relaxing. Nice trend in that area over the last few ensemble runs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 Phase 8 wouldn't be happening until after the end of the ensembles. I think some people hear that we're heading in that direction and expect faster changes. Patience is suggested. Reminder, it's a slow moving wave. Which is a good thing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: The NAO is more east based up until near Christmas. So this allows the -PNA to pump the SE Ridge. We hope the GEFS is correct about it pressing more SW after Christmas. That’s what we need to flatten the SE Ridge. But the EPS and GEPS don’t show this pattern near the end of their runs yet like the GEFS does. They are much weaker with the -NAO. Models diverge for after Christmas I think this delay by the EC is a product of the EC MJO lagging behind the GEFS in it's progression. The GEFS is already in phase 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 1 minute ago, EasternLI said: Phase 8 wouldn't be happening until after the end of the ensembles. I think some people hear that we're heading in that direction and expect faster changes. Patience is suggested. Reminder, it's a slow moving wave. Which is a good thing. Phase 7 effects won’t be felt until closer to Christmas. Any phase 8 impacts will be after xmass. The only wildcard is some strat hits on the Pv around the 20th that could help with a cold shot in that timeframe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I think this delay by the EC is a product of the EC MJO lagging behind the GEFS in it's progression. The GEFS is already in phase 8. Those rmm plots chase convection. We are still currently in p6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 The olr maps are more accurate and have p7 around Christmas then p8-1 to end the year into 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Phase 7 effects won’t be felt until closer to Christmas. Any phase 8 impacts will be after xmass. The only wildcard is some strat hits on the Pv around the 20th that could help with a cold shot in that timeframe. Yeah, exactly. We're still in phase 7 at the end of the eps from the looks of vp 200. I do believe we're seeing a trend more towards that phase 7 look. Gefs is still rushing things a little IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Yeah, exactly. We're still in phase 7 at the end of the eps from the looks of vp 200. I do believe we're seeing a trend more towards that phase 7 look. Gefs is still rushing things a little IMO. We still don’t if the mjo will be enough to flip the pattern. It’s a very strong wave so their is reasonable hope for it. But unfortunately the mjo isn’t the only factor currently 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I think this delay by the EC is a product of the EC MJO lagging behind the GEFS in it's progression. The GEFS is already in phase 8. Sometimes the models rush things on the RMM charts. The MJO on the VP charts is much slower working across the Pacific. Plus we often see a lag in the 500 mb pattern response. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We still don’t if the mjo will be enough to flip the pattern. It’s a very strong wave so their is reasonable hope for it. But unfortunately the mjo isn’t the only factor currently It's a valid concern. History with such events tells us that. However, I feel pretty good about this one. The slow moving nature and background state argue in favor of effective modulation. Time will tell. I suspect we'll continue seeing improving looks on ensembles as we monitor the inferno of this week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 the christmas week from 20th and on looks prime for a big snowstorm here. let me not jinx it (knock on wood) but i think we're going to get a white christmas this year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 54 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The olr maps are more accurate and have p7 around Christmas then p8-1 to end the year into 2022 Is phase 7 good in a Nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: I think this delay by the EC is a product of the EC MJO lagging behind the GEFS in it's progression. The GEFS is already in phase 8. The last 5 or so years it seems 8 out of 10 times when you see the EC lagging on MJO progression vs the GFS the GFS ends up more correct in the end. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: The other wild card is how the pattern will respond with a +AAM spike against the La Niña background state. My guess this is part of the reason that the La Niña MJO 500 composites look different from the actual pattern. I believe Allan Huffman had a tweet on the MJO composites with a +AAM. I've read some discussion on this mjo wave being the catalyst for that. I'm not very well versed in AMM. Would be interesting to look into more at some point in the future. I've also read some discussion that this AAM coupled with a mjo phase 6/7 passage has potential to land heavy blows to the SPV. This particular year is really interesting to me. I'm fascinated by how this could play out moreso than actually getting anything out of it. Looking forward to seeing what happens. I'm still feeling good about it though at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 I have some questions about those +AAM composites. Is la Niña factored in? Or is that just all years? Is qbo factored? These are important factors to consider. Different combinations of those are very capable of much different results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s probably better to keep expectations low right now in regard to any MJO 8 potential. We have had a record Pacific Jet since the beginning of the fall. The last time a MJO 8 attempted to shift an unfavorable pattern was in January 2019. We saw how that turned out to be a disappointment. So it’s better to just take a wait and see approach right now. That year though was warm enso. Which is a more unfavorable state than la nina for effective modulation as per research. Apples and oranges IMO. I have no expectations. I'm merely trying to take science and apply it to the current situation. If someone else has expectations, that's on them. Not long ago we were reading in here that this wave couldn't propagate, that was incorrect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2021 Author Share Posted December 11, 2021 Will this be the year for a white Christmas? The pattern looks to be changing just in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Will this be the year for a white Christmas? The pattern looks to be changing just in time. I wouldn't bet the farm on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I wouldn't bet the farm on that. Good afternoon SS14. When it comes to the coastal plain, Santa’s sleigh has had wheel modifications, in place, for quite awhile. As always … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 You know the WAA is impressive in December when Newark is only 2° under the record high so far with overcast conditions. 11 Dec 12:51 pm 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 Just now, bluewave said: You know the WAA is impressive in December when Newark is only 2° under the record high so far with overcast conditions. 11 Dec 12:51 pm 63 70’s in nj? Highest I see is 64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: You know the WAA is impressive in December when Newark is only 2° under the record high so far with overcast conditions. 11 Dec 12:51 pm 63 And nearby Caldwell is stuck at 49 and fog 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 plenty of snow chances after next week. just in time for christmas! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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