LibertyBell Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 19 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: 92-93 more so is where that happened a ton. 97-98 we had the storm track and -AO in place most of the winter but it was just too mild for any snow 97-98 was super annoying because we were about to set a new low snowfall record and a surprise nuisance storm in late March ruined it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 21 hours ago, MJO812 said: There are signs of a better pattern ( hopefully this is real) by the week of Christmas. meh 60s and sunny is a lot better than 40s and rain, I say keep it warm until it can actually snow around here 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 21 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: It can't get much worse. yeah it can 33 and rain is MUCH WORSE, if it's not going to snow it should be in the 60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 22 hours ago, bluewave said: The only DJF winter season to go under 1” at NYC was 1997-1998. But my guess is that it was another quality control issue for the Park since LGA and EWR had more. So they probably waited too after the snow ended to measure the snow and some of it melted. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through FebClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 1997-1998 0.5 0 2 1918-1919 1.1 0 3 1972-1973 2.6 0 4 1931-1932 2.7 0 5 1991-1992 3.2 0 6 2001-2002 3.5 0 7 2018-2019 3.7 0 8 2011-2012 4.5 0 9 2019-2020 4.8 0 10 1989-1990 5.0 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Dec through FebClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 1972-1973 1.3 0 2 1991-1992 2.5 0 3 2011-2012 3.6 0 - 2001-2002 3.6 0 - 1997-1998 3.6 0 4 1930-1931 4.1 62 5 1988-1989 4.8 0 6 1931-1932 5.3 0 7 1937-1938 5.6 0 - 1936-1937 5.6 0 8 2018-2019 5.7 0 - 1989-1990 5.7 0 9 2019-2020 6.9 0 10 1998-1999 7.3 0 - 1941-1942 7.3 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Dec through FebClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 1972-1973 1.9 0 2 1997-1998 2.3 0 3 1941-1942 3.1 0 4 2001-2002 3.3 0 5 2011-2012 3.4 0 6 2018-2019 3.6 0 7 1991-1992 4.1 0 8 2019-2020 4.6 0 9 1955-1956 5.9 0 10 1958-1959 6.0 0 How come you never post JFK but you post EWR, which isn't even in our state, Chris I strongly suspect that 5" number in late March 1998 was an overmeasurement at Central Park-- no one else got that kind of snow. What were JFK's totals for the 4 month period DJFM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 On 12/8/2021 at 6:26 AM, bluewave said: Looks like the record warmth building to our west will come out in waves. Our first chance for record warmth will be on Saturday. Models have mid 60s for the warm spots with the record high at Newark at 65°. Then the ridge builds again next week with a another push of warmth coming east. Newark Area, NJVersion: 16.2 (created 2021-11-30)Period of record: 1931 through 2020 12/11 65 in 1971 65 in 1966 63 in 1979 Saturday Next week any chance we'll get into the 70s at any point this month like we did in Dec 2015? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 18 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We have had a +pna last week That was related to the tail end of the November phase 5. We are currently getting an interference pattern with the MJO phase 6. So this -PNA is out of place for a La Niña phase 6 composite. That’s why we need to be cautious with any expectations about how a phase 7 may look in late December. Snowman linked to a tweet mentioning the +AAM. That along with the WPAC wave breaks is probably why none of the MJO composites are and exact match right now. https://www.frenchscotpilotweather.com/mjo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: any chance we'll get into the 70s at any point this month like we did in Dec 2015? That would be a bonus around here for December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2021 Author Share Posted December 9, 2021 1 hour ago, jfklganyc said: Wont be a warm up this year…gonna be warm right through What makes you think the whole month will be warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2021 Author Share Posted December 9, 2021 It's funny with all the doom and gloom posts every winter at this time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 Overnite low of 29* here, currently sitting at 30* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's funny with all the doom and gloom posts every winter at this time. I can't remember the last time lakes and ponds in Union County NJ froze solid enough to skate on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's funny with all the doom and gloom posts every winter at this time. But no one is posting doom and gloom except maybe Snowman. They're posting what the pattern ahead looks like. Let's just hope we don't get stuck in this pattern all winter and things flip. If it's not going to snow it might as well torch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 49 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: meh 60s and sunny is a lot better than 40s and rain, I say keep it warm until it can actually snow around here Hey there are skiers on here and 40’s work better than 60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 25 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What makes you think the whole month will be warm? I’m not saying the whole month will be warm… I am saying that between now and the 21st it’s going to be above normal just about every day. Unless it shoots up to 80 on the solstice, Any above normal reading around that day is gonna look like the next two weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2021 Author Share Posted December 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: I’m not saying the whole month will be warm… I am saying that between now and the 21st it’s going to be above normal just about every day. Unless it shoots up to 80 on the solstice, Any above normal reading around that day is gonna look like the next two weeks Yep I remember one winter where it was 60 degrees on December 31 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockawayRowdies Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 40 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yep I remember one winter where it was 60 degrees on December 31 lol My daughter was born two days before Christmas in 2015. It was in 70's on 24th and in mid 60's when we brought her home on Christmas day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 During the December 16-31, 1950-2020 period, 35 storms brought 4" or more snow to at least one of the following cities: Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia. Those storms were almost evenly distributed among AO/PNA cases. However, the larger impact storms (4" or more snow in 2 or more of those cities) occurred when the AO was negative. I constructed a simple index ranging from 1-3 (1=4" or more snow in just one of those cities; 3=4" or more snow in all three of those cities). The simple impact scores were: AO-/PNA-: Average: 1.7; 2 or more cities: 44% (n=9 storms) AO-/PNA+: Average: 2.2; 2 or more cities: 78% (n=9 storms) AO+/PNA-: Average: 1.3; 2 or more cities: 25% (n=8 storms) AO+/PNA+: Average: 1.2; 2 or more cities: 11% (n=9 storms) All cases: Average: 1.6; 2 or more cities: 40% (n=35 storms) The latest ensemble guidance suggests that the period will begin with an AO+/PNA- pattern. Such a pattern would suggest lower impact storms for the Philadelphia-Boston region should sufficiently cold air be present for such events. Finally, the biggest storms (10") or more have typically occurred when the AO was negative. When the AO was positive, Boston saw two such storms and New York City saw only one. None of those storms brought 6" or more snow to any of the other cities in the three-city subset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 Strange how again we see what is basically a -NAO late in the GEFS but it couples with that SE ridge to create a ridge that goes from Cuba to Greenland...some have speculated that is due to Atlantic SSTs but I am not totally sure that is the reason why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2021 Author Share Posted December 9, 2021 54 minutes ago, KrazyKeyur said: My daughter was born two days before Christmas in 2015. It was in 70's on 24th and in mid 60's when we brought her home on Christmas day. That was a warm winter until the huge Blizzard in January 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2021 Author Share Posted December 9, 2021 Latest Teleconnections 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Strange how again we see what is basically a -NAO late in the GEFS but it couples with that SE ridge to create a ridge that goes from Cuba to Greenland...some have speculated that is due to Atlantic SSTs but I am not totally sure that is the reason why why are the Atlantic SST so warm? Is the Atlantic in its "el nino" phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That was a warm winter until the huge Blizzard in January 2016. And the subzero temperature on Valentines Day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 I don’t think that - EPO or a -NAO will matter for us as long as the the big -PNA trough remains near the West Coast. It keeps pumping the SE Ridge. Maybe the weeklies update later will have some more information. But you can see the latest GEFS is stubbornly holding onto that -PNA trough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 except in March when you can have a trough on both coasts. any ideas what's causing this weird -PNA extreme? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2021 Author Share Posted December 9, 2021 12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: And the subzero temperature on Valentines Day. Yes sir 30 inches for the Jan 2016 Blizzard here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2021 Author Share Posted December 9, 2021 29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: why are the Atlantic SST so warm? Is the Atlantic in its "el nino" phase? This will help us when we are in a wintry pattern. Huge coastals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 51 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: why are the Atlantic SST so warm? Is the Atlantic in its "el nino" phase? Probably a combo of climate change factors and coming off the warm AMO. I think technically we are either out of or close to coming out of the warm AMO now at about 25-26 years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 25 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This will help us when we are in a wintry pattern. Huge coastals. Yeah, this partially explains the lack of big snow events in the 70s-80s overall. The cold AMO absolutely is associated with fewer big east coast snow events 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 Upper mid west and upper Great Lakes certainly have not missed out on winter this month. Parts of upper Michigan have received 2-4 ft. of snow and International Falls Minnesota reached -15 and -16 this week. Minneapolis expecting a snowstorm tomorrow. The cold wintry weather barely making it across the Canadian border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 1 hour ago, KrazyKeyur said: My daughter was born two days before Christmas in 2015. It was in 70's on 24th and in mid 60's when we brought her home on Christmas day. I remember doing last minute Christmas shopping that day and sweating my *** off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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