Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,604
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

December 2021


MJO812
 Share

Recommended Posts

19 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

92-93 more so is where that happened a ton.  97-98 we had the storm track and -AO in place most of the winter but it was just too mild for any snow

97-98 was super annoying because we were about to set a new low snowfall record and a surprise nuisance storm in late March ruined it

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 hours ago, bluewave said:

The only DJF winter season to go under 1” at NYC was 1997-1998. But my guess is that it was another quality control issue for the Park since LGA and EWR had more. So they probably waited too after the snow ended to measure the snow and some of it melted. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Total Snowfall 
Missing Count
1 1997-1998 0.5 0
2 1918-1919 1.1 0
3 1972-1973 2.6 0
4 1931-1932 2.7 0
5 1991-1992 3.2 0
6 2001-2002 3.5 0
7 2018-2019 3.7 0
8 2011-2012 4.5 0
9 2019-2020 4.8 0
10 1989-1990 5.0 0

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Total Snowfall 
Missing Count
1 1972-1973 1.3 0
2 1991-1992 2.5 0
3 2011-2012 3.6 0
- 2001-2002 3.6 0
- 1997-1998 3.6 0
4 1930-1931 4.1 62
5 1988-1989 4.8 0
6 1931-1932 5.3 0
7 1937-1938 5.6 0
- 1936-1937 5.6 0
8 2018-2019 5.7 0
- 1989-1990 5.7 0
9 2019-2020 6.9 0
10 1998-1999 7.3 0
- 1941-1942 7.3 0


 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Total Snowfall 
Missing Count
1 1972-1973 1.9 0
2 1997-1998 2.3 0
3 1941-1942 3.1 0
4 2001-2002 3.3 0
5 2011-2012 3.4 0
6 2018-2019 3.6 0
7 1991-1992 4.1 0
8 2019-2020 4.6 0
9 1955-1956 5.9 0
10 1958-1959 6.0 0

How come you never post JFK but you post EWR, which isn't even in our state, Chris :P

I strongly suspect that 5" number in late March 1998 was an overmeasurement at Central Park-- no one else got that kind of snow.  What were JFK's totals for the 4 month period DJFM?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 12/8/2021 at 6:26 AM, bluewave said:

Looks like the record warmth building to our west will come out in waves. Our first chance for record warmth will be on Saturday. Models have mid 60s for the warm spots with the record high at Newark at 65°. Then the ridge builds again next week with a another push of warmth coming east.

 

Newark Area, NJ
Version: 16.2 (created 2021-11-30)
Period of record: 1931 through 2020

12/11 65 in 1971 65 in 1966 63 in 1979


Saturday

C779C18B-2012-4A00-BE8B-9C37C6E69CAD.thumb.png.f5f34e331f0495a1e9391a69c2542e3e.png

6C472E77-AE35-4B57-93C9-F73EA7F3409B.thumb.png.0fe5420c63d4e0dc717aa6ad4d5aa848.png

 

Next week


3E90D649-4937-4188-BC93-FA56FE06FBCF.thumb.png.707b92674820c830672d42b0c9f8fc63.png

 

 

any chance we'll get into the 70s at any point this month like we did in Dec 2015?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We have had a +pna last week 

That was related to the tail end of the November phase 5. We are currently getting an interference pattern with the MJO phase 6. So this -PNA is out of place for a La Niña phase 6 composite. That’s why we need to be cautious with any expectations about how a phase 7 may look in late December. Snowman linked to a tweet mentioning the +AAM. That along with the WPAC wave breaks is probably why none of the MJO composites are and exact match right now. 
 

https://www.frenchscotpilotweather.com/mjo

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's funny with all the doom and gloom posts every winter at this time.

But no one is posting doom and gloom except maybe Snowman.   They're posting what the pattern ahead looks like.  Let's just hope we don't get stuck in this pattern all winter and things flip.  If it's not going to snow it might as well torch.  

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What makes you think the whole month will be warm?

I’m not saying the whole month will be warm… I am saying that between now and the 21st it’s going to be above normal just about every day.

Unless it shoots up to 80 on the solstice, Any above normal reading around that day is gonna look like the next two weeks

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

I’m not saying the whole month will be warm… I am saying that between now and the 21st it’s going to be above normal just about every day.

Unless it shoots up to 80 on the solstice, Any above normal reading around that day is gonna look like the next two weeks

Yep

I remember one winter where it was 60 degrees on December 31 lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

During the December 16-31, 1950-2020 period, 35 storms brought 4" or more snow to at least one of the following cities: Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia. Those storms were almost evenly distributed among AO/PNA cases. However, the larger impact storms (4" or more snow in 2 or more of those cities) occurred when the AO was negative. I constructed a simple index ranging from 1-3 (1=4" or more snow in just one of those cities; 3=4" or more snow in all three of those cities).  The simple impact scores were:

AO-/PNA-: Average: 1.7; 2 or more cities: 44% (n=9 storms)
AO-/PNA+: Average: 2.2; 2 or more cities: 78% (n=9 storms)
AO+/PNA-: Average: 1.3; 2 or more cities: 25% (n=8 storms)
AO+/PNA+: Average: 1.2;  2 or more cities: 11% (n=9 storms)

All cases: Average: 1.6; 2 or more cities: 40% (n=35 storms)

The latest ensemble guidance suggests that the period will begin with an AO+/PNA- pattern. Such a pattern would suggest lower impact storms for the Philadelphia-Boston region should sufficiently cold air be present for such events.

Finally, the biggest storms (10") or more have typically occurred when the AO was negative. When the AO was positive, Boston saw two such storms and New York City saw only one. None of those storms brought 6" or more snow to any of the other cities in the three-city subset.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Strange how again we see what is basically a -NAO late in the GEFS but it couples with that SE ridge to create a ridge that goes from Cuba to Greenland...some have speculated that is due to Atlantic SSTs but I am not totally sure that is the reason why

why are the Atlantic SST so warm?  Is the Atlantic in its "el nino" phase?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don’t think that - EPO or a -NAO will matter for us as long as the the big -PNA trough remains near the West Coast. It keeps pumping the SE Ridge. Maybe the weeklies update later will have some more information. But you can see the latest GEFS is stubbornly holding onto that -PNA trough. 
 

6536CEC2-09DB-4DFF-BF39-8EC3CAA178C6.thumb.png.89ba07389a61691cdcde5656170ee619.png

1C668180-4A1B-4231-B3B5-4FDD9EA135BA.thumb.png.89c66f2d5d02226fcce6038d3fe5f3a2.png

B6E871D0-DC4F-4A2C-9DCA-82B4942CE35D.thumb.png.7135bd087f5393d6a78a1906e31bee0a.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

51 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why are the Atlantic SST so warm?  Is the Atlantic in its "el nino" phase?

Probably a combo of climate change factors and coming off the warm AMO.  I think technically we are either out of or close to coming out of the warm AMO now at about 25-26 years 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Upper mid west and upper Great Lakes certainly have not missed out on winter this month. Parts of upper Michigan have received 2-4 ft. of snow and International Falls Minnesota reached -15 and -16 this week. Minneapolis expecting a snowstorm tomorrow. The cold wintry weather barely making it across the Canadian border.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...