December 2021

[Stormlover74]

Temps have surged into the mid 60s here 

[nycwinter]

beautiful   early april day today...are the yankees at home ?

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

If you're going to take away the warmest anomaly you also need to take away the coldest anomaly and then see what you're left with

 

That’s why a median is a median. Take them both away and you still don’t have the anomalies in the original chart.

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

How long before we get a 90 average for July?

 

Better get rid of humidity if you want to hit that average.

[psv88]

7 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

That’s why a median is a median. Take them both away and you still don’t have the anomalies in the original chart.

What is your agenda? I dont get it. 

[bluewave]

Winter version of the Ambrose Jet. Cooler conditions and winds gusting  near 35 mph along the South Shore. Mid-60s at the usual spots in NJ.

 

Kennedy Intl   PTSUNNY   53  51  93 S29G37    29.74F FOG
Breezy Point     N/A     52 N/A N/A S25G35      N/A

Newark/Liberty PTSUNNY   65  52  62 S15G29    29.69F
Teterboro      MOSUNNY   62  53  72 S17G25    29.68F
Caldwell       LGT RAIN  64  52  64 VRB7      29.69F
Somerville     PTSUNNY   64  54  69 S8        29.66F
Linden         PTSUNNY   65  50  59 SW10G21   29.69F
Perth Amboy      N/A     63 N/A N/A S18G25      N/A

[the_other_guy]

12 minutes ago, psv88 said:

What is your agenda? I dont get it. 

There is no agenda. We consistently talk about that El Niño as some super event on this forum. I read it all the time “super nino”

 

When you put up a chart showing a warming trend over a decade for the month of December and the entire eastern half of the country is blood red, perhaps a footnote.

 

I know we certainly never had a Dec anywhere near that. Have we ever had any other month of the year in New York City that had a +12? 

If so that may be worth mentioning in the data.

Doesn’t affect the data but gives a lot of context

 

 

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Better get rid of humidity if you want to hit that average.

Humidity is definitely what makes it so uncomfortable

July 2010 I think had a 90 degree average high and it was a lot more comfortable than most of these high humidity summers.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, jfklganyc said:

There is no agenda. We consistently talk about that El Niño as some super event on this forum. I read it all the time “super nino”

 

When you put up a chart showing a warming trend over a decade for the month of December and the entire eastern half of the country is blood red, perhaps a footnote.

 

I know we certainly never had a Dec anywhere near that. Have we ever had any other month of the year in New York City that had a +12? 

If so that may be worth mentioning in the data.

Doesn’t affect the data but gives a lot of context

 

 

Ironic thing though if you compare Feb 2015 to Dec 2015 they are almost diametrically opposite in terms of anomalies.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Winter version of the Ambrose Jet. Cooler conditions and winds gusting  near 35 mph along the South Shore. Mid-60s at the usual spots in NJ.

 

Kennedy Intl   PTSUNNY   53  51  93 S29G37    29.74F FOG
Breezy Point     N/A     52 N/A N/A S25G35      N/A

Newark/Liberty PTSUNNY   65  52  62 S15G29    29.69F
Teterboro      MOSUNNY   62  53  72 S17G25    29.68F
Caldwell       LGT RAIN  64  52  64 VRB7      29.69F
Somerville     PTSUNNY   64  54  69 S8        29.66F
Linden         PTSUNNY   65  50  59 SW10G21   29.69F
Perth Amboy      N/A     63 N/A N/A S18G25      N/A

we got to 62 here on the south shore around 10 am but have dropped since then now the wind is cranking, its dark and looks like heavy rain is nearby

 

[the_other_guy]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Ironic thing though if you compare Feb 2015 to Dec 2015 they are almost diametrically opposite in terms of anomalies.

 

Agreed. Crazy year. LI Sound Ice. But we are talking about December in this conversation

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

beautiful   early april day today...are the yankees at home ?

no they are still locked out

 

[TriPol]

how does early January look as far as temps and precip?

[the_other_guy]

Nothing beautiful about today at JFK. Gusty chilly overcast mess 

53F Wind gusting to 34 mph with mist

[lee59]

Hi temperature earlier this morning here of 57, now 55.

[bluewave]

The latest extended EPS continues the warm -PNA +AO pattern into late December. It develops a west based EPO ridge near Alaska during late December. But still has a SE Ridge here due to the -PNA and +AO. So Western Canada gets much colder. The MJO eventually gets over to 7, but it’s forecast to destructively interfere with the La Niña. So that may be why it takes longer to build the ridge into Alaska. We  would probably need a cleaner MJO 7 response to start pushing the gradient closer to the Northeast during the last week of December.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

• A Pacific MJO event is likely to destructively interfere with La Niña, and there remains uncertainty as to whether the MJO will maintain an organized structure, as evidenced by large ensemble spread in the RMM forecasts through mid-December.
 

Dec 6-13

Dec 13-20

Dec 20-27

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

36 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Nothing beautiful about today at JFK. Gusty chilly overcast mess 

53F Wind gusting to 34 mph with mist

it was in the 60s here earlier this morning

now its a windy rainy mess

 

[snowman19]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The latest extended EPS continues the warm -PNA +AO pattern into late December. It develops a west based EPO ridge near Alaska during late December. But still has a SE Ridge here due to the -PNA and +AO. So Western Canada gets much colder. The MJO eventually gets over to 7, but it’s forecast to destructively interfere with the La Niña. So that may be why it takes longer to build the ridge into Alaska. We  would probably need a cleaner MJO 7 response to start pushing the gradient closer to the Northeast during the last week of December.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

• A Pacific MJO event is likely to destructively interfere with La Niña, and there remains uncertainty as to whether the MJO will maintain an organized structure, as evidenced by large ensemble spread in the RMM forecasts through mid-December.
 

Dec 6-13

Dec 13-20

Dec 20-27

 

 

 

It also has a +NAO. So even though it shows that “west-based” -EPO at the end of the month, it still has a very negative PNA/RNA, +AO and a SE ridge on roids come the last week of the month. You also have a very strong SPV. Whether this changes come the beginning of January remains to be seen

[EasternLI]

This is what I was hinting at yesterday with possible ramifications to the NAO...

 

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

This is what I was hinting at yesterday with possible ramifications to the NAO...

 

There’s certainly a possibility a -NAO pops, but like Eric said, if it does, it would be post Christmas and more likely the beginning of January should such a response come to fruition, then the question becomes how long does it last assuming no SSW occurs and the MJO goes back into its classic maritime continent La Niña phases (4, 5, 6) which is climo for mid-late January?

[EasternLI]

Sometimes the stronger they are, the harder they fall.

 

 

[EasternLI]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There’s certainly a possibility a -NAO pops, but like Eric said, if it does, it would be post Christmas and more likely the beginning of January should such a response come to fruition, then the question becomes how long does it last assuming no SSW occurs and the MJO goes back into its classic maritime continent La Niña phases (4, 5, 6) which is climo for mid-late January?

They usually last ~2 weeks when there is no ssw as per research. I don't know if we want that anyway. Not sure about it. Like I said earlier in this thread, ssw has far reaching effects. Including effects to tropical convection.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

They usually last ~2 weeks when there is no ssw as per research. I don't know if we want that anyway. Not sure about it. Like I said earlier in this thread, ssw has far reaching effects. Including effects to tropical convection.

with the lag effect it's likely to result in colder weather after the first few days of January, and remember it doesn't necessarily mean we get snow, it could even result in a suppressed storm track as what happened in Jan 2002

[EasternLI]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

with the lag effect it's likely to result in colder weather after the first few days of January, and remember it doesn't necessarily mean we get snow, it could even result in a suppressed storm track as what happened in Jan 2002

Well yeah nothing ever means we'll get snow lol. But I do know that we won't get any snow with a death Ridge over our heads. At least there's room for some optimistic outcomes this year IMO.

[EasternLI]

Now, that stuff is only regarding the NAO though. Thinking the emerging - EPO will cool down the final third of the month more than we're seeing right now. Canada is cold. But we'll see. Ugly pattern beforehand though. Well advertised and supported. 

[Mr. Kevin]

21 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Now, that stuff is only regarding the NAO though. Thinking the emerging - EPO will cool down the final third of the month more than we're seeing right now. Canada is cold. But we'll see. Ugly pattern beforehand though. Well advertised and supported. 

Do you really believe we get a legitimate -epo? I think the standing wave would have to break down to get a great propagation of mjo in phase 7 instead of a weak version. Just my opinion 

[EasternLI]

4 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Do you really believe we get a legitimate -epo? I think the standing wave would have to break down to get a great propagation of mjo in phase 7 instead of a weak version. Just my opinion 

Like this?

[Roger Smith]

The increase in December temperatures in the past forty years has produced a top ten that is almost all from the recent past, only 1891 in 9th place came before 1982. How does that compare to the other eleven months? This is the number of top ten months that have occurred since 1980 (including that year), so the number before 1980 is whatever needs to be added to get 10. 

JAN 4 _______ JUL 6

FEB 9 _______ AUG 8*

MAR 5 ______ SEP 4*

APR 7* ______ OCT 5*

MAY 4 _______ NOV 6

JUN 4 _______ DEC 9

______________________________________________

_ * April had a tie for 10th (1945, 1994) so the count is 7 recent and 4 older, rather than 7 and 3.

_ * Aug had a three-way tie for 9th, of which one was recent, so the count is 8 recent, 3 older.

_ * Sept had a tie for 10th also, but both years were recent, so the count is 4 recent and 7 older. 

_ * Oct had a tie for 10th (1946, 1954) so the count is 5 recent and 6 older. 

_______________________________________________

Since 1980 to 2021 is 42 years out of the 153 total years the number of top ten months that should be expected at random for each month would be close to 3 (2.7). So all twelve months have seen more than random expectation but the four at 4 and the two at 5 are not running way ahead of the pace. Given that there are four extra years due to the ties, the total number of top ten months is 124 of which 71 are in the recent past (1980 to present) which compares to a random expectation of 33.

Another cluster of 15 occur around 1941 to 1955, the years between 1956 and 1979 seem to occur about as often as one might expect at random, and before 1945 a top ten finish is relatively rare, there are only 19 in total. January 1932, March 1945 and June 1943 remain the only first place months from before the modern era. If the urban heat island was factored in, Sept 1881 would probably move up from third to first as well. January, May and September seem to be the months least skewed towards modern warmth in their top ten lists.

 

[Mr. Kevin]

1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

Like this?

I'm not as smart as you with charts, but what does this mean?

[donsutherland1]

Cooler air will return tonight and tomorrow. Afterward, a system could bring light snow to parts of the region on Wednesday. A coating to an inch is possible even in Newark, New York City, and Philadelphia. Some pockets of 1"-3" amounts are possible. Eastern New England will likely see 1"-3" with some locally higher amounts.

No Arctic blasts appear likely for the foreseeable future. Overall, through December 20th, temperatures will likely be warmer than normal in the means with some short-lived cool shots.

First measurable snowfall statistics for select cities:

Allentown: Normal: December 6; 2020-21: December 9
Bridgeport: Normal: December 3; 2020-21: December 16
Islip: Normal: December 10; 2020-21: December 16
New York City: Normal: December 13; 2020-21: December 16
Newark: Normal: December 9; 2020-21: December 9; 2021-22: November 28
Philadelphia: Normal: December 19; 2020-21: December 16

Out West, Denver has yet to see its first measurable snowfall through December 5. The previous record latest first measurable snowfall occurred on November 21, 1934. The progression of Denver's latest first measurable snowfall of the season is as follows:

November 11, 1882
November 16, 1894
November 19, 1931
November 21, 1934

The base case is that the closing 10 days of December could turn cooler, though not necessarily cold. Uncertainty is higher than usual. The evolution of the EPO and AO beyond mid-month will likely determine the outcome for much of the remainder of the month.

Although the MJO moved into Phase 6 at a very high amplitude in recent days, the sample size of cases where the MJO moved into Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.75 or above during December 1-15 is very small (n=5). Moreover, just a single case occurred during a predominantly EPO+/AO+ pattern and none occurred during a La Niña. Among those five cases, two had a cold or very cold December 21-31 period, one saw near normal conditions, and two had warm conditions. In short, the current high amplitude MJO does not provide a clear signal where things are headed.

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around December 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter.

The SOI was +16.66 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.061 today

On December 4 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.199 (RMM). The December 3-adjusted amplitude was 2.280 (RMM).