December 2021

[EasternLI]

Interesting discussion. There are certainly some similarly to the Phase 6 composite too. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

 

That would be perfect, just in time for the holidays. 

[EasternLI]

Looking at it a little bit more. Sort of looks like a blend of both composites to me actually. Could simply be reflecting the progression through that in between area during that time.

[bluewave]

The record storm near Japan and the typhoon are probably a big part of why the current MJO phase 6 pattern is getting disrupted. A -PNA is the opposite of what we would expect from a MJO 6 La Niña December composite. The near record Aleutians Ridge and deep -PNA trough for mid-December will probably take time to shift. 
 

 

 

[Allsnow]

42 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Interesting discussion. There are certainly some similarly to the Phase 6 composite too. 

Yup. We have had a p6 response the last two weeks. It’s not close to p5 in November. The only reason we are going away from that look is because the pna is tanking 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Our actual pattern in late November was a perfect match for a November La Niña phase 5. We had the classic +PNA and -NAO pattern. But the block in the North Atlantic was more south based probably due to the record SSTs off the East Coast.

The lower hgts are in Ak not south of the Aleutians 

[EasternLI]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The record storm near Japan and the typhoon are probably a big part of why the current MJO phase 6 pattern is getting disrupted. A -PNA is the opposite of what we would expect. The near record Aleutians Ridge and deep -PNA trough for mid- December will probably take time to shift. If we can get a robust enough MJO 7 running in the background, then maybe the Aleutians ridge can build into Alaska in late December. 
 

 

 

Agreed. The more amplitude we can get with the mjo moving forward, the better. Could have implications on the NAO too. But that would be further down the road. One thing at a time.

[TugHillMatt]

Hey, all. Just dropping a note to say how much I've enjoyed checking out your discussions the past month. There's been some really good stuff (other than a particular individual who constantly trolls and posts the same WARM discussion..).

Anyways, it's been enjoyable following along with your thoughts on where the pattern might be heading and what's causing things to not go with what we would think they would be right now.

[dWave]

Beautiful Dec day, Sunny, 50 calm wind

 

 

[bluewave]

The latest Euro monthly has a low heating bill special for the US in December.

 

 

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, dWave said:

Beautiful Dec day, Sunny, 50 calm wind

 

 

Easily +7 over forecast

[donsutherland1]

Following some overnight showers, temperatures could soar into the 60s in much of the region tomorrow before cooler air returns. Afterward, a system could bring light rain and snow to parts of the region on Wednesday. A small accumulation is possible even in Newark and New York City.

No Arctic blasts appear likely for the foreseeable future. Overall, through December 20th, temperatures will likely be warmer than normal in the means with some short-lived cool shots.

First measurable snowfall statistics for select cities:

Allentown: Normal: December 6; 2020-21: December 9
Bridgeport: Normal: December 3; 2020-21: December 16
Islip: Normal: December 10; 2020-21: December 16
New York City: Normal: December 13; 2020-21: December 16
Newark: Normal: December 9; 2020-21: December 9; 2021-22: November 28
Philadelphia: Normal: December 19; 2020-21: December 16

Out West, Denver has yet to see its first measurable snowfall through December 4. The previous record latest first measurable snowfall occurred on November 21, 1934. The progression of Denver's latest first measurable snowfall of the season is as follows:

November 11, 1882
November 16, 1894
November 19, 1931
November 21, 1934

The base case is that the closing 10 days of December could turn cooler, though not necessarily cold. Uncertainty is higher than usual. The evolution of the EPO and AO beyond mid-month will likely determine the outcome for much of the remainder of the month.

Although the MJO moved into Phase 6 at a very high amplitude in recent days, the sample size of cases where the MJO moved into Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.75 or above during December 1-15 is very small (n=5). Moreover, just a single case occurred during a predominantly EPO+/AO+ pattern and none occurred during a La Niña. Among those five cases, two had a cold or very cold December 21-31 period, one saw near normal conditions, and two had warm conditions. In short, the current high amplitude MJO does not provide a clear signal where things are headed.

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter.

The SOI was +15.67 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.499 today

On December 3 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.274 (RMM). The December 2-adjusted amplitude was 2.072 (RMM).

 

[Mr. Kevin]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

Our actual pattern in late November was a perfect match for a November La Niña phase 5. We had the classic +PNA and -NAO pattern. But the block in the North Atlantic was more south based probably due to the record SSTs off the East Coast.

Do you think the standing wave would have to weaken before the mjo can propagate to other phases because if it dont and mjo stays in 4-6, it would be real warm all winter imo. Hopefully the standing wave will weaken 

[SnoSki14]

Absolute blowtorch for the entire CONUS on EPS.

Gives me hope for Jan/Feb though. We are no longer following typical ENSO climo anymore.

[CIK62]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The latest Euro monthly has a low heating bill special for the US in December.

 

 

JB looked at this and just today  cancelled the Winter.       Last hope for the Mohegans is the CFSv2 which might as well change the F to V and start filling prescriptions online.

 

This looks 10 degrees warmer than when I mentioned it 2 days ago:

                      

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Absolute blowtorch for the entire CONUS on EPS.

Gives me hope for Jan/Feb though. We are no longer following typical ENSO climo anymore.

Or we could go full 01/02,11/12 if the polar vortex stays strong. We will need a major disruption to drop the AO. This winter could easily be a full ratter for us. 

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Or we could go full 01/02,11/12 if the polar vortex stays strong. We will need a major disruption to drop the AO. This winter could easily be a full ratter for us. 

Yeah sure but I'm not too sure it'll be that simple

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Absolute blowtorch for the entire CONUS on EPS.

Gives me hope for Jan/Feb though. We are no longer following typical ENSO climo anymore.

The January and February ECMWF monthlies aren’t very encouraging either. Fortunately, much can change between now and January/February.

[MJO812]

So many people predicted a great stretch from late November through December . Not looking good but December is young.

[SnoSki14]

52 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The January and February ECMWF monthlies aren’t very encouraging either. Fortunately, much can change between now and January/February.

I suppose we could also be in a prolonged unfavorable phase that'll last several years.

Like a warm version on the 80s/90s. The +EPO has been a mainstay. 

[LibertyBell]

wtf is it raining so hard in the middle of the night?

[lee59]

didn't expect over a 1/2 inch of rain last night but that is what I got.

[LoboLeader1]

50* here as of 6AM with a light rain falling. 

[bluewave]

You know it’s a very warm December pattern when Long Island is approaching 60° early in the morning.

 

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
Jones Beach      N/A     57 N/A N/A S13G18      N/A
Wantagh          N/A     57  55  94 S10         N/A
Hempstead      NOT AVBL
Matinecock Pt    N/A     52 N/A N/A N1          N/A
Farmingdale    CLOUDY    57  55  93 S15G24    29.94F
MacArthur/ISP  CLOUDY    57  56  96 S14       29.94F
Stony Brook      N/A     55  54  94 S7          N/A
Shirley        MOCLDY    57  54  89 SE14G23   29.97F
Mt Sinai Harb    N/A     55 N/A N/A S10         N/A
Westhampton    CLOUDY    55  53  93 SE14G21   29.98F
East Hampton   CLOUDY    53  51  94 SE15G23   29.98F
Southold         N/A     54  52  94 S18         N/A
Montauk          N/A     54  52  93 S12G21    30.02F

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  45degs.(39/51), or +7.

Reached 48 here yesterday.

Today: 56-61, wind w. to s. to nw.-breezy, cloudy-drizzle.     No T under 32 for next 15 days.

Trace of Snow to 2" on Wed.

56*(99%RH) here at 6am, street wet.{was 51 at Midnite}.     54* at 7am.     52* at 7:30am, FOG<0.2mi.   52* at 8am, but Fog lifted.      56* at Noon.      53* at 3pm.       55* at 4pm.       59* at 7pm.      55* at 9pm.

 

[lee59]

57 degrees here, feels good.

[Great Snow 1717]

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

The latest Euro monthly has a low heating bill special for the US in December.

 

 

That should come as no surprise.  There continues to be no sign of a cold/snowy pattern being established.

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

That should come as no surprise.  There continues to be no sign of a cold/snowy pattern being established.

December has been the warmest winter departure month over the last decade. It’s  no surprise that the models have corrected so much warmer in recent days. Summer has been extended into fall and fall into early winter.

[lee59]

Very wintry upper mid west and upper Great Lakes. Some temps near zero and wind chills -25 along with a foot of snow in some areas. Denver may finally get their first snow.

[lee59]

60s today, snow on Wednesday, the up and down temps. continue.