December 2021

[bluewave]

Here in SW Suffolk about 75% of the trees have lost their leaves. But there are still a few trees that are still fully leafed out in brilliant colors. This may be some of the best color that we have seen in early December. The current photos coming in from NYC are just gorgeous.

 

 

 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Here in SW Suffolk about 75% of the trees have lost their leaves. But there are still a few trees that are still fully leafed out in brilliant colors. This may be some of the best color that we have seen in early December. The current photos coming in from NYC are just gorgeous.

 

 

 

That's crazy. We've been 95% bare for a week now

[CIK62]

HE WHO SLEEPS WITH BITCOIN WILL AWAKEN AS AN EUNUCH-and have the EURO and CMC as their harem.

Other models are in the 60's while the GFS has a major snowstorm.

[North and West]

There are still trees with full foliage here in Astoria. 

That’s crazy. Our leaves have been gone for several weeks now in Morris County. They were late, too, like everyone else, but they’ve fallen.


.

[bluewave]

Another indicator that the pattern driving the fall record +EPO and current -PNA is on steroids.

 

 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

That's crazy. We've been 95% bare for a week now

Yeah, what a Micro climate that place is….

[donsutherland1]

Under partly sunny skies, the temperature rose into the upper 40s in the New York City area. At the New York Botanical Garden, numerous plants remain in blossom.

[rclab]

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under partly sunny skies, the temperature rose into the upper 40s in the New York City area. At the New York Botanical Garden, numerous plants remain in blossom.

Lovely photos Don. Early winter spring blooms and is the first photo forsythia? Th rose is gorgeous. It looks possibly like a Chicago Peace variety. I remember back in the 50’s my mom loved white roses and although difficult to maintain a good bloom, she was able to get a  white rambler to grow well. I remember it blooming into December which was due in part to full sun and basement heat venting. A memory from 65 years gone. As always …

[donsutherland1]

17 minutes ago, rclab said:

Lovely photos Don. Early winter spring blooms and is the first photo forsythia? Th rose is gorgeous. It looks possibly like a Chicago Peace variety. I remember back in the 50’s my mom loved white roses and although difficult to maintain a good bloom, she was able to get a  white rambler to grow well. I remember it blooming into December which was due in part to full sun and basement heat venting. A memory from 65 years gone. As always …

Thanks, Rclab.

Yes, the first photo is forsythia. It is breaking out in bloom in many parts of the region. I'm not sure what type of rose I photographed, as there was no sign by the bush. Usually, the Botanical Garden closes its rose garden before the start of December, but not this year. Thanks for sharing your memory.

Very best wishes,

Don

[donsutherland1]

Much warmer will begin to arrive tomorrow. As a result, clouds will be plentiful during the latter part of the day and at night. The temperature will then hold nearly steady at night. Then, on Monday, temperatures could soar into the 60s in much of the region. Afterward, a system could bring rain and snow to parts of the region on Wednesday. A small accumulation is possible even in New York City and Newark. No Arctic blasts appear likely for the foreseeable future.

First measurable snowfall statistics for select cities:

Allentown: Normal: December 6; 2020-21: December 9
Bridgeport: Normal: December 3; 2020-21: December 16
Islip: Normal: December 10; 2020-21: December 16
New York City: Normal: December 13; 2020-21: December 16
Newark: Normal: December 9; 2020-21: December 9; 2021-22: November 28
Philadelphia: Normal: December 19; 2020-21: December 16

Out West, Denver has yet to see its first measurable snowfall through December 3. The previous record latest first measurable snowfall occurred on November 21, 1934. The progression of Denver's latest first measurable snowfall of the season is as follows:

November 11, 1882
November 16, 1894
November 19, 1931
November 21, 1934

Atlantic blocking (AO and NAO) has now broken down even earlier than had been modeled just a few days ago. In response, the first half of December will likely be warmer than normal. Afterward, developments related to the EPO and AO could determine the outcome for much of the remainder of the month.

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter.

The SOI was +11.73 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.262 today

On December 2 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.066 (RMM). The December 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.749 (RMM).

 

[lee59]

Maples seem to be some of the last trees to lose their leaves. Although in my area there are not many trees with leaves, some maples are still hanging on but even those are losing many of the leaves. I'm not sure what trees they have in the Daytona area beside Palms and evergreens but their coldest November temperature was 47 compared to NYC 30.

[Allsnow]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

It doesn’t look like the current MJO phase 6 is having much influence on the pattern. A MJO phase 6 during a La Niña is a strong +PNA. Currently getting the opposite now with a strong -PNA. We can only hope that if it goes into 7 that we get something resembling an actual phase 7 later in December.

 

 

Huh? The last two weeks have been that composite to a T. We have had a ridge out west with Lower hgts in Ak. This is why the west has been snowless and warm. 

[MJO812]

26 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Huh? The last two weeks have been that composite to a T. We have had a ridge out west with Lower hgts in Ak. This is why the west has been snowless and warm. 

We are definitely going into 7

[Roger Smith]

I could add that spring blooming rhododendron and cherry blossom have been spotted in March-like state in the Vancouver BC area in the past week during very mild spell there. Pattern has shifted to much colder now, with the storm track now roughly OR-s ID-WY instead of at 55 N in western Canada. We had 3" snow earlier today and more normal temps for here, 28 F. Coast had rain-snow mix. Probably won't lead to much change downstream for a while though, if anything could warm things up as source of warm sectors further south now. 

 

[NorthShoreWx]

3 hours ago, lee59 said:

Maples seem to be some of the last trees to lose their leaves. Although in my area there are not many trees with leaves, some maples are still hanging on but even those are losing many of the leaves. I'm not sure what trees they have in the Daytona area beside Palms and evergreens but their coldest November temperature was 47 compared to NYC 30.

Particularly the Norway Maples.  There's a few around here with one corner of the tree or another hanging on to some yellow leaves.  The red and sugar maples have been done for a while.

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, Nibor said:

There are still trees with full foliage here in Astoria. 

I dont know why it's disturbing and weird let them stay on the trees, I hate cleaning up their mess

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, lee59 said:

Maples seem to be some of the last trees to lose their leaves. Although in my area there are not many trees with leaves, some maples are still hanging on but even those are losing many of the leaves. I'm not sure what trees they have in the Daytona area beside Palms and evergreens but their coldest November temperature was 47 compared to NYC 30.

oaks are usually the last to lose their leaves

 

[EasternLI]

6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

We are definitely going into 7

Yes. 

Ensembles have come to a better agreement on that overnight. I've been monitoring over the course of the last week. The GEFS has been showing this repeatedly. The eps has been off and on with it. Eps mean was a good move to the GEFS last night though. I'm talking about the VP 200 charts not the RMM diagrams. Still need to be mindful of things that could interfere, such as tropical cyclones. My original thoughts on this looking good. Perhaps delayed a couple of days I suspect due to shenanigans with that Typhoon in conjunction with the wave break.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  43degs.(36/51), +4.

GFS at 6", is still trying to squeeze a storm in between 60 degree days.      Other two models are at a Trace.    Key is: L.#1 giving a psuedo -NAO for L.#2(Wed.) which can now be further south.      Adding GFS snows for Dec. 08th. and 12th. together---the GFS has had 6" to 15" total, for the last four runs.

Today: 46-49, wind n. to e., variable skies, up to 52 by tomorrow AM.

Reached 48 here yesterday.

41*(51%RH) here at 6am.       47* at Noon.       48* at 1pm.       49* at 2pm.      48*/49* during PM.

[the_other_guy]

10 hours ago, lee59 said:

Maples seem to be some of the last trees to lose their leaves. Although in my area there are not many trees with leaves, some maples are still hanging on but even those are losing many of the leaves. I'm not sure what trees they have in the Daytona area beside Palms and evergreens but their coldest November temperature was 47 compared to NYC 30.

Lots of elms, red maple, sweetgums, sycamore, oaks, and magnolia.

 

34F in Hastings at 7am

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Huh? The last two weeks have been that composite to a T. We have had a ridge out west with Lower hgts in Ak. This is why the west has been snowless and warm. 

The last few weeks have been a November phase 5 for a La Niña. We are just going into December phase 6 right now. The mid-December -PNA that the models have been adverting is the opposite of what to expect from a La Niña phase 6 in December. My guess is that losing  the +PNA is related to the big West PAC wave break  amplifying the Aleutians Ridge . That being said, it’s possible that the MJO can start having a bigger influence later in December. It could take another wave break to shake things up again. 
 

 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The last few weeks have been a November phase 5 for a La Niña. We are just going into December phase 6 right now. The mid-December -PNA that the models have been adverting is the opposite of what to expect from a La Niña phase 6 in December. My guess is that losing  the +PNA is related to the big West PAC wave break  amplifying the Aleutians Ridge . That being said, it’s possible that the MJO can start having a bigger influence later in December. It could take another wave break to shake things up again. 
 

 

Yeah, but the last two weeks has been a western ridge with Nw flow in the east. Which is the exact composite of p6 December in Niña. You have have convection in both p5/6. Go look at p5 Niña composite for November? It’s not the pattern we have had. The only reason we are getting away from the p6 look is because of the pna going Uber negative 

[Allsnow]

 

[lee59]

7 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Particularly the Norway Maples.  There's a few around here with one corner of the tree or another hanging on to some yellow leaves.  The red and sugar maples have been done for a while.

Yea I have the same thing, they have the yellow leaves. I didn't know they were Norway Maples.

[lee59]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

oaks are usually the last to lose their leaves

 

Yes the oaks seem to have the leaves die and just don't want to fall off the tree. I have seen some oaks still have some leaves well into winter.

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, but the last two weeks has been a western ridge with Nw flow in the east. Which is the exact composite of p6 December in Niña. You have have convection in both p5/6. Go look at p5 Niña composite for November? It’s not the pattern we have had. The only reason we are getting away from the p6 look is because of the pna going Uber negative 

The last few weeks have been classic MJO phase 5. The strongest VP anomalies were too far west to be in the phase 6 region. The wave break a few days ago disrupted the whole pattern. Notice the big VP anomalies jump into Eastern Siberia. That’s probably a part of what all the models have a big -PNA in mid-December going against the Phase 6 +PNA for December.

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly  cloudy and pleasant. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 48°

Newark: 51°

Philadelphia: 52°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 47.4°; 15-Year: 47.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 47.9°; 15-Year: 48.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 49.0°; 15-Year: 49.7°

Tomorrow will be very mild, but cooler air will return afterward. A system could bring some snow to the region on Wednesday.

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The last few weeks have been classic MJO phase 5. The strongest VP anomalies were too far west to be in the phase 6 region. The wave break a few days ago disrupted the whole pattern. Notice the big VP anomalies jump into Eastern Siberia. That’s probably a part of what all the models have a big -PNA in mid-December going against the Phase 6 +PNA for December.

 

Yeah, but the p5 composite for Niña November isn’t the pattern we had. It was closer to a p6 response for December. Why do you think the west has been so warm and snowless the past few weeks? We have had a ridge in that area 

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, but the p5 composite for Niña November isn’t the pattern we had. It was closer to a p6 response for December. Why do you think the west has been so warm and snowless the past few weeks? We have had a ridge in that area 

Our actual pattern in late November was a perfect match for a November La Niña phase 5. We had the classic +PNA and -NAO pattern. But the block in the North Atlantic was more south based probably due to the record SSTs off the East Coast.

[qg_omega]

Agreed, perfect match P5 Nina