December 2021

[wdrag]

10 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Not surprising, but the new EPS has begun a move north, which I’m sure will continue. These always move north in a lousy setup like this 

Nevertheless,  it is of interest for a portion of our area which should get at least some ice or snow, especially nw of I95, particularly I84 corridor. Lots of options...  working up a simple thread that posts by 715P. This is not a promise of snow acc but I am thinking a winter weather advisory event is possible for a portion of our area.... VERY early, especially thread the needle but too many models wants a little ice or snow. 

[lee59]

While we bask in 60 degree temperatures on Monday, International Falls Minnesota, the icebox of the nation, will have highs in the single digits and lows around -10.

[Intensewind002]

I can’t wait until Christmas Eve or Day is at least 55 degrees if not warmer once again

[wdrag]

Have not threaded a wind event for Monday the 6th, but fwiw... ensembles have basically a 50 knot sw flow over us Monday. How strong the CAA in the evening is somewhat uncertain.

Will rereview the next several days for a shorter fuse wind advisory thread if needed. 

[psv88]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Another day with the high temperatures warmer than guidance.

EWR….51

NYC….48

LGA….50

ISP…..49

JFK....49

48 here

[qg_omega]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Nevertheless,  it is of interest for a portion of our area which should get at least some ice or snow, especially nw of I95, particularly I84 corridor. Lots of options...  working up a simple thread that posts by 715P. This is not a promise of snow acc but I am thinking a winter weather advisory event is possible for a portion of our area.... VERY early, especially thread the needle but too many models wants a little ice or snow. 

Likely north of the I90 corridor

[LoboLeader1]

32* here as of 5:30 this AM.  High of 44* yesterday.

[CIK62]

Let me preface by noting the models are in Silly Season Mode and playing Musical Chairs.  

The next 8 days are averaging  43degs.(37/49), or +4.

Reached 49,{at Midnite} and 48 during the afternoon here, yesterday.

Today: 45-48, wind w., cloudy---then breaks of sun.      EURO lost the snow and goes to 70 next week.     Makes the GFS look normal.     CMC goes to 10 next week.    As for snow on the 8th., a Trace to 3"---with the EURO  at 0".

The good news is that the GEFS Extended is strictly 0 to 40 starting the 21st.    Get ready to freeze in situ.

42*(50%RH)here at 6am{was 39* at 1am}.     45* at 9am.      47* at Noon.     48* at 1pm.       47*/48* all PM.       45* at 7pm.

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, Eduardo said:

Based on that map, I'd conclude that the Niña is east-based (or at least east-weighted), yet I'm hearing it described as "basin-wide."  What am I missing?

It seems like the pattern forcing this near record -PDO is having a greater influence than just the La Niña alone. The -PDO is being driven by the extreme vortex in the Northeast Pacific. This caused a record +EPO in the fall. The vortex is next forecast to move to a very strong -PNA position. Unfortunately, this is combining with a very +AO pattern. The main question is what is forcing the -PDO instead of recent years with a more +PDO La Niña ?

All the guidance has -PNA +AO until further notice

 

 

[LoboLeader1]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It seems like the pattern forcing this near record -PDO is having a greater influence than just the La Niña alone. The -PDO is being driven by the extreme vortex in the Northeast Pacific. This caused a record +EPO in the fall. The vortex is next forecast to move to a very strong -PNA position. Unfortunately, this is combining with a very +AO pattern. The main question is what is forcing the -PDO instead of recent years with a more +PDO La Niña ?

All the guidance has -PNA +AO until further notice

 

 

My question is what do we need to happen to break this pattern?

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be variably cloudy and cool. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 47°

Newark: 50°

Philadelphia: 53°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 47.7°; 15-Year: 48.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 48.2°; 15-Year: 48.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 49.3°; 15-Year: 50.0°

Milder air will begin to return tomorrow.

[KEITH L.I]

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It seems like the pattern forcing this near record -PDO is having a greater influence than just the La Niña alone. The -PDO is being driven by the extreme vortex in the Northeast Pacific. This caused a record +EPO in the fall. The vortex is next forecast to move to a very strong -PNA position. Unfortunately, this is combining with a very +AO pattern. The main question is what is forcing the -PDO instead of recent years with a more +PDO La Niña ?

All the guidance has -PNA +AO until further notice

 

 

MJO is in phase 7 by then..I think we might see a change around Xmas

 

[bluewave]

40 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

My question is what do we need to happen to break this pattern?

We will need a SSW in January. There were only 3 La Niña Decembers with a strong -PNA and +AO.  while 08-09 and 84-85 had SSWs in January, 71-72 didn’t. That being said, 3 years is a very small sample size and our climate has warmed quite a bit since then. But we would be happy to get some blocking to push back against the Pacific Jet for snow chances.

https://csl.noaa.gov/groups/csl8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html

 

 

 

[Great Snow 1717]

53 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

My question is what do we need to happen to break this pattern?

A massive pattern change BUT there are no signs of that occurring. 

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

We will need a SSW in January. There were only 3 La Niña Decembers with a strong -PNA and +AO.  while 08-09 and 84-85 had SSWs in January, 71-72 didn’t. That being said, 3 years is a very small sample size and our climate has warmed quite a bit since then. But we would be happy to get some blocking to push back against the Pacific Jet for snow chances.

https://csl.noaa.gov/groups/csl8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html

 

 

 

Agree. I don’t see any evidence that the pattern is just going to do a complete 180 by the beginning of January. So far we have seen failed attempt after failed attempt since early September at the models propagating the MJO to phases 7, 8, 1, which never happened due to the wall of easterlies from the La Niña and we about to see an extreme -PNA, +EPO, +NAO, +AO pattern coming up….this is on the heels of the most positive EPO fall in history and an extreme -PDO/-PMM background state

[MJO812]

34 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said:

MJO is in phase 7 by then..I think we might see a change around Xmas

 

Right on target for a wintry holiday period 

[snowman19]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Right on target for a wintry holiday period 

View any model showing the MJO propagating into phases 7, 8, 1 with extreme skepticism 

[lee59]

Looks to me that a pattern of fluctuating temperatures, continues.

[KEITH L.I]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

View any model showing the MJO propagating into phases 7, 8, 1 with extreme skepticism 

[Eduardo]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It seems like the pattern forcing this near record -PDO is having a greater influence than just the La Niña alone. The -PDO is being driven by the extreme vortex in the Northeast Pacific. This caused a record +EPO in the fall. The vortex is next forecast to move to a very strong -PNA position. Unfortunately, this is combining with a very +AO pattern. The main question is what is forcing the -PDO instead of recent years with a more +PDO La Niña ?

All the guidance has -PNA +AO until further notice

 

 

Oh yeah NPAC and PDO regions are pure trash right now and those are the main pattern drivers.  Seems that, over the past decade or so, blobs vs. “inverse blobs” in the NPAC have played a bigger role than ENSO.  Anything to that?

In terms of sensible weather, it’s looking pretty boring for those of us that love deep winter patterns.  I’m still confident that we’ll luck our way into some fun this year, but it’d take something pretty monumental like a SSW that favors our side of the pole to dislodge that ugly blue ball sitting up near the pole.

[SACRUS]

Clouds to the north and south and sunny in the middle.  Temps should exceed guidance again today for the NYC/CNJ/NNJ region

 

 

[EasternLI]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

View any model showing the MJO propagating into phases 7, 8, 1 with extreme skepticism 

Well, it's already happened during October for starters. Arguably during a time when the la nina was less favorable. Also, during a climo time of year when the MJO is usually dormant. Interesting. Remember, if you will, the October nor'easter. 

[Tatamy]

Interesting dataset off of the 12z GFS at 210 hours: 

 

No support in the ensembles for it.

[snowman19]

The new Euro just like the Ukie wants nothing at all to do with Tues/Wed. It’s a sheared out, disjointed mess of nothing 

[Allsnow]

Mjo looks to be heading into 7-8 by months end. The orl maps has it in those phases with strength. It probably what we will need to shake up the pacific. This isn’t like 11-12 or19-20 with a vortex in Ak. It’s the poor pacific and lower hgts in Ak that will keep things mild 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Mjo looks to be heading into 7-8 by months end. The orl maps has it in those phases with strength. It probably what we will need to shake up the pacific. This isn’t like 11-12 or19-20 with a vortex in Ak. It’s the poor pacific and lower hgts in Ak that will keep things mild 

With that being said, next weekend through the 20th looks very torchy. 

[KEITH L.I]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

The new Euro just like the Ukie wants nothing at all to do with Tues/Wed. It’s a sheared out, disjointed mess of nothing 

It gives a few inches, for early December, in this pattern, you'll take it.

[bluewave]

It doesn’t look like the current MJO phase 6 is having much influence on the pattern. A MJO phase 6 during a La Niña is a strong +PNA. Currently getting the opposite now with a strong -PNA. We can only hope that if it goes into 7 that we get something resembling an actual phase 7 later in December.

 

 

[the_other_guy]

I just landed from Florida. Compared to trees in southern Queens:

Daytona had fewer leaves on their non-evergreen trees

The urban areas of Jax had about the same amount of leaves on their non-evergreen trees.

In case you didnt know, trees in north Florida lose their leaves.

Nonetheless, ironic and disturbing and weird

[Nibor]

32 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

I just landed from Florida. Compared to trees in southern Queens:

Daytona had fewer leaves on their non-evergreen trees

The urban areas of Jax had about the same amount of leaves on their non-evergreen trees.

In case you didnt know, trees in north Florida lose their leaves.

Nonetheless, ironic and disturbing and weird

There are still trees with full foliage here in Astoria.