December 2021

[snowman19]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is alone here

You have a dip in the NAO. If the energy  stays separated and doesn't phase , we will see some snow.

There is no -NAO block which you ABSOLUTELY need to get a snowstorm here in the metro next week. The SE ridge is going to flex big time along with all the other problems I pointed to earlier. Make no mistake, this will end up north, there’s nothing to stop it, there’s no block. This one is for interior central and northern NE. Don’t say I didn’t warn you…..

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the amplitude of the December AO has gone way up since 2000. We seem to be getting more total December AO days above +3 and below -3. So some very impressive swings from year to year. 
 

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii

Total December AO days +3 or above and -3 or below

2000….-3….11 days 

2001….-3…..2 days

2004….+3….2 days

2005....-3…..3 days

2006….-3…..8 days

2009….-3….21 days

2010….-3….11 days

2011….+3…..9 days

2012….-3…..4 days

2013….+3….5 days

2015…..+3….3 days

2016….+3…..4 days

2019….+3…..1 day

2020….-3……1 day

2021……+3….1 day so far

thats awesome, it means lots of extremes, we'll get both extreme cold and extreme warm

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I wouldn’t get excited for anything here unless we see more blocking and a strong high to force any low to track south of us. I guess there could be an hour or two of snow/mix before rain near the coast. SWFE setups are rarely good for us. I-84 corridor and up into New England different story. 

why is everyone talking about a big noreaster though?

 

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Euro’s certainly taken a tumbling the last few years. Really since the 1/25/15 storm debacle. 

While I don’t really know the inside details from the ECMWF, maybe the record warm Atlantic is causing it to underestimate the SE ridge and WAR?

168 hr Euro forecast for Monday 

168 hr GFS closer to reality

 

New Euro closer to original GFS stronger WAR

 

 

Record SST warmth to our east

 

 

 

[Eduardo]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

 

Based on that map, I'd conclude that the Niña is east-based (or at least east-weighted), yet I'm hearing it described as "basin-wide."  What am I missing?

[Allsnow]

27 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There is no -NAO block which you ABSOLUTELY need to get a snowstorm here in the metro next week. The SE ridge is going to flex big time along with all the other problems I pointed to earlier. Make no mistake, this will end up north, there’s nothing to stop it, there’s no block. This one is for interior central and northern NE. Don’t say I didn’t warn you…..

We have the confluence from the departing cutter along with a good shot of cold air. Do I think this will trend north, yes, but I don’t think we need a miracle in the metro to snow next week. If we keep the sw energy weak it most definitely can happen. 

[JustinRP37]

47 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not JB lol

I don't really follow him and Henry M like I did in the past.

I use to watch Henry M's videos all the time. 

It is sad to me how some really good mets have gotten carried away more with clicks and fame than their science. I remind my students all the time we all have to acknowledge our personal biases and look solely at data. Unfortunately many can't these days it seems. I'd give my left kidney to have a white Christmas every year. Used to be able to ski in southern New England by Christmas just about every year on a most fully open mountain. Now it is rare. This year is looking tough too so far. I am hopeful, but we gotta drop the overnight lows!

[Allsnow]

Eps pops a -epo for next week and the conus is flooded with artic air. We still warm up after that but this might limit the duration of the warm up 

[jm1220]

59 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why is everyone talking about a big noreaster though?

 

The upcoming Wed storm looks like a SWFE. Low trying to cut west of here and into a high over Quebec. There are limited circumstances where they can produce here but the odds are much better for the I-84, I-90 areas. Also at the end they usually trend north and warmer. 

[psv88]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Don't worry

Our 1st snow threat might be days away. Enjoy tracking

If not then I will eat crow and admit it.

Who is "our"? Southern Brooklyn? 

[psv88]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Euro’s certainly taken a tumbling the last few years. Really since the 1/25/15 storm debacle. 

Euro still has the highest verification scores of all of the globals.

[MJO812]

44 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Eps pops a -epo for next week and the conus is flooded with artic air. We still warm up after that but this might limit the duration of the warm up 

Bamwx changed their thoughts about December 

 

[EasternLI]

57 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Based on that map, I'd conclude that the Niña is east-based (or at least east-weighted), yet I'm hearing it described as "basin-wide."  What am I missing?

Originally in the fall, it was Basin wide. Since then, it's taken an east lean. Which is pretty interesting. I feel like that's an unusual evolution.

[MJO812]

55 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We have the confluence from the departing cutter along with a good shot of cold air. Do I think this will trend north, yes, but I don’t think we need a miracle in the metro to snow next week. If we keep the sw energy weak it most definitely can happen. 

Yes

This will be a thread the needle storm but we do have a chance. Of course the interior is favored.

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Who is "our"? Southern Brooklyn? 

Yes possible but interior will always be favored in these situations.  

[donsutherland1]

Modestly cooler air has returned, but the cool spell will be short-lived. Much warmer air could arrive late in the weekend ahead of the next cold front. Afterward, a system could bring rain and snow to parts of the region on Wednesday. No Arctic blasts appear likely for the foreseeable future even as meteorological winter has now gotten underway.

First measurable snowfall statistics for select cities:

Allentown: Normal: December 6; 2020-21: December 9
Bridgeport: Normal: December 3; 2020-21: December 16
Islip: Normal: December 10; 2020-21: December 16
New York City: Normal: December 13; 2020-21: December 16
Newark: Normal: December 9; 2020-21: December 9; 2021-22: November 28
Philadelphia: Normal: December 19; 2020-21: December 16

Out West, Denver has yet to see its first measurable snowfall through December 2. The previous record latest first measurable snowfall occurred on November 21, 1934. The progression of Denver's latest first measurable snowfall of the season is as follows:

November 11, 1882
November 16, 1894
November 19, 1931
November 21, 1934

Atlantic blocking (AO and NAO) has now broken down even earlier than had been modeled just a few days ago. In response, the first half of December will likely be warmer than normal. Afterward, developments related to the EPO and AO could determine the outcome for much of the remainder of the month.

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter.

The SOI was +12.30 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.144 today. This is the highest AO figure since March 26, 2021 when the AO stood at +3.216.

On December 1 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.737 (RMM). The November 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.465 (RMM).

 

[binbisso]

24 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Originally in the fall, it was Basin wide. Since then, it's taken an east lean. Which is pretty interesting. I feel like that's an unusual evolution.

 I thought this was gonna be a moderate to strong LA Nina.   Didnt someone post last week that 3.4 and 4 were gonna fall off sharply? What happened?

[binbisso]

34 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Originally in the fall, it was Basin wide. Since then, it's taken an east lean. Which is pretty interesting. I feel like that's an unusual evolution.

 It's solidly East based.  What the  Implications are I'm not sure.   usually East based LA Nina's are better for our area if you like snow and cold

[bluewave]

Another day with the high temperatures warmer than guidance.

EWR….51

NYC….48

LGA….50

ISP…..49

JFK....49

[binbisso]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another day with the high temperatures warmer than guidance.

EWR….51

NYC….48

LGA….50

ISP…..49

JFK....49

 Very dry lately with down sloping gusty Northwest winds.  I've noticed that the models have been too cool with temperatures.  Do they factor in down sloping winds and soil moisture into their algorithms?

[EasternLI]

6 minutes ago, binbisso said:

 It's solidly East based.  What the  Implications are I'm not sure.   usually East based LA Nina's are better for our area if you like snow and cold

Right, but it's unusual. It was central based looking for a time. Now we have this. Pretty sure that's not a typical evolution for east based events. So it's definitely interesting for me. 

[binbisso]

That a pretty impressive 486 1000-500mb dm in Southern quebec which can  Do the job to at least get front end accumulating snow even across the coastal plain. To  Snowman 19 we don't need a negative NA O to have a light to moderate snowfall here.  We did very well between 2010 and 2020 with a mainly positive NAO

[binbisso]

3 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Right, but it's unusual. It was central based looking for a time. Now we have this. Pretty sure that's not a typical evolution for east based events. So it's definitely interesting for me. 

 It is very interesting.  I don't think 2011 2012 type Winter this year.   not a wall  to wall Winter either as I think those are pretty rare but we should have our opportunities this Winter

[dmillz25]

C-1” in the city then sleet then rain here in the city. Keeping my expectations real low with this for now

[MJO812]

Gfs is still alone with the big rainstorm for many next week.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

C-1” in the city then sleet then rain here in the city. Keeping my expectations real low with this for now

Good way to go

[binbisso]

Ensembles keep pushing back on this warm up.  It's obviously gonna warm up for a bit but  But maybe for not so long.  The polar vortex on our side of the globe probably has something to do with it.  

Old run

 New run 

[CIK62]

We're we weenies born in the wrong state?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10273261/Hawaii-blizzard-warning-12-inches-snow-winds-100-mph-expected.html?ito=push-notification&ci=kGEb5egBlf&cri=s1nTIyrE_9&si=51505497&xi=5a2c9b28-ef82-418e-b681-0ce62b30c195&ai=10273261

[Eduardo]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

There is no -NAO block which you ABSOLUTELY need to get a snowstorm here in the metro next week. The SE ridge is going to flex big time along with all the other problems I pointed to earlier. Make no mistake, this will end up north, there’s nothing to stop it, there’s no block. This one is for interior central and northern NE. Don’t say I didn’t warn you…..

Mehh.  Maybe.  It'd certainly improve our chances from slim to less slim.  However unlikely, it is possible, for example, to get a nicely-timed HP to scootch across Quebec and get the job done.  Probable?  No.  Possible?  Sure!

[bluewave]

The warmer pattern has actually moved up in time vs what the models were showing at the end of November. Both the 6-10 day forecasts and 11-15 were too cold. The warmer start to December so far and the warm up ahead of the cutter on Monday wasn’t even forecast. 

New 1-5 vs old 6-10

 

New 6-10 vs old 11-15