Cfa Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 9 hours ago, LibertyBell said: December should no longer be considered a winter month, it only is because of lazy "met winter"......winter should only be measured as two months long now, January and February I agree, December is about as transitional as March. These types of super-torch winter patterns have been largely restricted to Eurasia, I was wondering when it’d be North America’s turn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 20 minutes ago, psv88 said: The storms last night blew my patio furniture all over the yard, and broke my umbrella and table. Winds had to have been 50+ at some point, with the pounding hail. Was wild. why didn't we have some sort of watch or warning about this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 33 minutes ago, bluewave said: Those RMM charts probably won’t be a reliable indicator of the pattern in situations like this. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf A Pacific MJO event is likely to destructively interfere with La Niña, and there remains uncertainty as to whether the MJO will maintain an organized structure, as evidenced by large ensemble spread in the RMM forecasts through mid-December. Any coherence of the intraseasonal signal is more likely to be south of the equator. So this has nothing to do with climate change because we do have a ton of cold air in Alaska and northern Canada. We actually need more climate change to make it wintry down here, because when the Arctic warms up all that cold air is sent down here. So if you guys want more wintry weather turn on your vehicles and idle them, thats the fastest way to get more CO2 into the atmosphere /kidding lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 55 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: why didn't we have some sort of watch or warning about this? was kind of a surprise I didn't see it on any models... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 The preliminary December 3 value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.144. The development of such high values during the December 1-10 period has often indicated that December will be warmer to much warmer than normal and that seasonal snowfall in the New York City area will be below to much below normal. There have been 7 such prior cases during the 1950-2020 period. Those cases are below. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 make it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Apologies if this subject already covered (if so would appreciate a link) or if you think it should go into its own thread, but despite the dry November (1.12" 12th driest on record) at NYC, the year still passed three in total precip and now sits in 12th place. It will be interesting to see how many more years 2021 can pass before time runs out. The rest of the top 32 which would include the three years passed in the last thirty days and 17 others passed in the second half of October (of which 12 were passed in the October 26th 3.30" rainstorm after one on Oct 16th) are as follows (source, a data set that Don Sutherland sent me from which I derived annual and monthly totals, thanks again to Don for that, see climate change forum for a recent post in a thread I started there which catalogues much much more NYC and Toronto historical data with a link to a forum (net-weather UK) which has larger download capacity for the supporting excel files) ... Rank __ YEAR ___ TOTAL PRECIP _ 01 ____ 1983 ____ 80.56" _ 02 ____ 2011 ____ 72.81" _ 03 ____ 1972 ____ 67.03" _ 04 ____ 2018 ____ 65.55" _ 05 ____ 1989 ____ 65.11" _ 06 ____ 2007 ____ 61.67" (needs 3.29"to tie) _ 07 ____ 1975 ____ 61.21" (needs 2.83" to tie) _ 08 ____ 1990 ____ 60.92" (needs 2.64" to tie) _ 09 ____ 2006 ____ 59.89" (needs 1.51" to tie) _ 10 ____ 1903 ____ 58.52" (needs .14" to tie) _ 11 ____ 2003 ____ 58.42" (needs .04" to tie) _ 12 ____ 2021 ____ 58.38" (to Dec 2) _ 13 ____ 1889 ____ 58.18" (passed Nov 22) _ 14 ____ 1913 ____ 58.00" (passed Nov 13) _ 15 ____ 1973 ____ 57.32" (passed Nov 12) _ 16 ____ 1984 ____ 57.03" (passed Oct 30) _ 17 ____ 1971 ____ 56.77" (passed Oct 30) _ 18 ____ 1996 ____ 56.19" (passed Oct 29 at .01") _ 19 ____ 1927 ____ 56.06" (passed Oct 27 at .02") _ 20 ____ 2005 ____ 55.97" (passed Oct 26 at 3.23") _ 21 ____ 1975 _____ 54.73" (passed Oct 26 at 1.99") _ 22 ____ 2014 ____ 53.79" (passed Oct 26 at 1.05") _ 23 ____ 2009 ____ 53.62" (passed Oct 26 at .88") _ 24 ____ 2008 ____ 53.61" (passed Oct 26 at .87") _ 25 ____ 1933 ____ 53.53" (passed Oct 26 at .79") _ 26 ____ 1888 ____ 53.32" (passed Oct 26 at .58") _ 27 ____ 1919 ____ 53.29" (passed Oct 26 at .55") _ 28 ____ 1920 ____ 53.20" (passed Oct 26 at .46") _ 29 ____ 2019 ____ 53.19" (passed Oct 26 at .45") _ 30 ____ 1937 ____ 52.97" (passed Oct 26 at .23") _ 31 ____ 1902 ____ 52.77" (passed Oct 26 at .03") _ 32 ____ 1884 ____ 52.25" (passed Oct 16) _____________________________________________________________ Note that the large majority of these wet years are recent, only eleven were before 1950 including all four of 25th to 28th place as well as 30th to 32nd, in a period of record dating back to 1869. Another ten were in the period 1971-2000 and eleven more 2001-2021. At the end of September 2021 was ranked 33rd wettest so it passed 18 years in October to become 15th wettest after October. This year had 52.74" when the Oct 26 rainstorm began and 56.04" when it ended, and it moved from 31st to 19th place during that day. It took down four more during additional rainfalls Oct 27th to 31st. It passed three more in November despite the low rainfall total which included a dry spell Nov 1-10. Looks like it could pass four or five more years and finish around 6th to 8th. The top five appear fairly safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 48 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The preliminary December 3 value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.144. Yeah, the amplitude of the December AO has gone way up since 2000. We seem to be getting more total December AO days above +3 and below -3. So some very impressive swings from year to year. https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii Total December AO days +3 or above and -3 or below 2000….-3….11 days 2001….-3…..2 days 2004….+3….2 days 2005....-3…..3 days 2006….-3…..8 days 2009….-3….21 days 2010….-3….11 days 2011….+3…..9 days 2012….-3…..4 days 2013….+3….5 days 2015…..+3….3 days 2016….+3…..4 days 2019….+3…..1 day 2020….-3……1 day 2021……+3….1 day so far 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Meanwhile back at the GFS......... You load 16-Days and what do you get? Six Degrees over and I win my bet............. Dec. 04-19....... 37/51 = 44 = +6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 Euro is nice for the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 Euro says what warmup going forward 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 37 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro says what warmup going forward you're never going to learn anything are you 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: you're never going to learn anything are you I learn from the best , not from warministas. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I learn from the best , not from warministas. Who in particular is "the best"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 The EURO Teaser....... GFS looked like this two days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 8 minutes ago, psv88 said: Who in particular is "the best"? Don't worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, CIK62 said: The EURO Teaser....... GFS looked like this two days ago. Gfs is alone here You have a dip in the NAO. If the energy stays separated and doesn't phase , we will see some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I learn from the best , not from warministas. Just as long as the best doesn't include the person from central PA, where we live in a fantasy land of cooling despite all the evidence to the contrary. What is a warminista? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: Just as long as the best doesn't include the person from central PA, where we live in a fantasy land of cooling despite all the evidence to the contrary. What is a warminista? Not JB lol I don't really follow him and Henry M like I did in the past. I use to watch Henry M's videos all the time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 The Euro missed the warmup for Monday while the GFS will be closer to reality. Old runs GFS is closer New run Euro caves to GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not JB lol I don't really follow him and Henry M like I did in the past. I use to watch Henry M's videos all the time. Who is the best? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said: Yep this is what the models show besides the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 13 minutes ago, psv88 said: Who is the best? Don't worry Our 1st snow threat might be days away. Enjoy tracking If not then I will eat crow and admit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro missed the warmup for Monday while the GFS will be closer to reality. Old runs GFS is closer New run Euro caves to GFS Euro’s certainly taken a tumbling the last few years. Really since the 1/25/15 storm debacle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 This is the type of storm that can work. In Jan 2012 we had the biggest storm of the season from a weak wave following a cutter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Euro’s certainly taken a tumbling the last few years. Really since the 1/25/15 storm debacle. Ever since they upgraded the model it hasn't been good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 Cmc just got upgraded the other day along with the stormvista snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Don't worry Our 1st snow threat might be days away. Enjoy tracking If not then I will eat crow and admit it. I wouldn’t get excited for anything here unless we see more blocking and a strong high to force any low to track south of us. I guess there could be an hour or two of snow/mix before rain near the coast. SWFE setups are rarely good for us. I-84 corridor and up into New England different story. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I wouldn’t get excited for anything here unless we see more blocking and a strong high to force any low to track south of us. I guess there could be an hour or two of snow/mix before rain near the coast. SWFE setups are rarely good for us. I-84 corridor and up into New England different story. They don't and they usually favor SNE but it's not really a SWFE. Like EastonSN+ mentioned , this is a wave along the front . The stronger the cutter is before that the better this wave will be for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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