December 2021

[guinness77]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

December should no longer be considered a winter month, it only is because of lazy "met winter"......winter should only be measured as two months long now, January and February

 

…and March now too.  

[snowman19]

Next week has interior New England and probably interior central and northern New England at that, written all over it. Marginal airmass, no arctic high locked in to the north, -PNA with a big low crashing into the west coast, +AO, neutral NAO, +EPO, neutral WPO, raging PAC jet, super fast flow, no blocking, northern branch shortwave may outrun the southern branch shortwave due to the very fast zonal flow and lack of blocking. It would be the definition of thread the needle and extremely good luck to get anything of significance (snow wise) here in the metro area: 

 

[wdrag]

No threads from me regarding a possible wind event Monday afternoon-evening. GFS strongest on this but no consensus for a widespread 40+ knot event.

Ditto Wed snow ice I84 corridor: The 06z/3 GFS shows us how variable the solutions for the 8th.  00z/3 EPS-GEFS cyclically continue to favor some snow or ice I84 corridor but the snow may be biased high by the standard 10 to 1 ratio applied to mixed precip.  Just too early to be confident of much snow (probably would be a quick change to ice or rain), so at this time, I'll wait til this evening to rereview for consensus on this wintry hazard. Others have mentioned the same. Attached the ~04z/3 WPC ensemble guidance for a 3"+ snow event or 1/4" mixed frozen on D6 (Wed the 8th). Their probs of under 29% for our area on a D6 forecast justifies, for me, no thread at this time. 

Just need to be patient, shop and get some more outdoor cleanup completed, and/or put the finishing touches on the holiday lighting-preparations. 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly cloudy, breezy, and cooler. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 46°

Newark: 49°

Philadelphia: 51°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 48.0°; 15-Year: 48.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 48.6°; 15-Year: 49.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 49.6°; 15-Year: 50.3°

Milder air will return during the weekend.

[Tatamy]

6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Alot of nice gefs members for next week. Ukie is also flatter along with the cmc compared to the gfs.

06z GEFS also has a lot of members showing this.  The best probabilities continue to lie to the north and west.  As Walt indicated this will be primarily an I84 type event.

[bluewave]

Winter 60s have become more common over the years. LGA reached 60° yesterday and most stations were close. Our next chance for 60s will be on Monday. December is starting warmer than forecast.

 

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  12/03/2021  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 FRI  03| SAT 04| SUN 05| MON 06| TUE 07| WED 08| THU 09| FRI 10 CLIMO
 X/N  49| 32  49| 35  49| 45  66| 43  44| 34  47| 40  49| 44  58 31 46

[Great Snow 1717]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

1973 lol

and that Belmont run was a thing of beauty

 

Yes it was 1973 lol  The Belmont was a thing of beauty  The greatest horse of all time and it isn't even close.

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  45degs.(40/51), or +6.

Reached 57 here yesterday.

Today: 44-47, wind nw. and breezy till sunset, variable skies.      GFS has no 32 for the next 16 days.

44*(50% RH) here at 6am.    43* at 7am.     47* at Noon.       49* at 3pm.       41* at 9pm.

[bluewave]

You know something much more extreme than the typical La Niña is going on when Alaska records the deepest fall +EPO vortex on record.

 

 

[LoboLeader1]

39* for an overnite low here.  

[lee59]

37 mph wind gust here when the front went thru last night. Currently 41 degrees.

[Great Snow 1717]

53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You know something much more extreme than the typical La Niña is going on when Alaska records the deepest fall +EPO vortex on record.

 

 

Agree

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

You know something much more extreme than the typical La Niña is going on when Alaska records the deepest fall +EPO vortex on record.

 

 

We may be stuck in a warm pattern for most of December. The MJO wave is going to run into a wall of easterlies from the Niña and get ripped apart before it can propogate into phase 7. Classic model bias of exaggerating phase 7, which is why they kept going back and forth in the long range 

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

No threads from me regarding a possible wind event Monday afternoon-evening. GFS strongest on this but no consensus for a widespread 40+ knot event.

Ditto Wed snow ice I84 corridor: The 06z/3 GFS shows us how variable the solutions for the 8th.  00z/3 EPS-GEFS cyclically continue to favor some snow or ice I84 corridor but the snow may be biased high by the standard 10 to 1 ratio applied to mixed precip.  Just too early to be confident of much snow (probably would be a quick change to ice or rain), so at this time, I'll wait til this evening to rereview for consensus on this wintry hazard. Others have mentioned the same. Attached the ~04z/3 WPC ensemble guidance for a 3"+ snow event or 1/4" mixed frozen on D6 (Wed the 8th). Their probs of under 29% for our area on a D6 forecast justifies, for me, no thread at this time. 

Just need to be patient, shop and get some more outdoor cleanup completed, and/or put the finishing touches on the holiday lighting-preparations. 

Not surprising, but the new EPS has begun a move north, which I’m sure will continue. These always move north in a lousy setup like this 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Not surprising, but the new EPS has begun a move north, which I’m sure will continue. These always move north in a lousy setup like this 

Agree even though tracking it has been fun lol 

[snowman19]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Agree even though tracking it has been fun lol 

If we had a -NAO block, this would have been a metro area snowstorm and probably a decent one at that 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If we had a -NAO block, this would have been a metro area snowstorm and probably a decent one at that 

I agree

[Great Snow 1717]

18 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The use of 95-96 as an analog for this winter was preposterous. A wishcast through and through. 

 

Agree regarding 95-96 being used as an analog...

[bluewave]

46 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Agree

Our weather patterns have become much more amplified in recent years. We were talking about the record high heights over Alaska during the fall of 2018. These extreme reversals have also been occurring with AO and NAO in the Atlantic.

 

[MJO812]

Tellies are awful but the MJO  is heading into 7 . Slight  glimpse of hope.

[bluewave]

Current pattern looks more like a La Niña January phase 5.

 

 

[snowman19]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Current pattern looks more like a La Niña January phase 5.

 

 

If you read Eric Webb’s tweet chain I posted before, he explains why the models are incorrect for propagating the MJO wave into phase 7 with the current Niña state. They also propagate it too fast as well as too far. It has been stuck in phases 4-6 since the beginning of September 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Our weather patterns have become much more amplified in recent years. We were talking about the record high heights over Alaska during the fall of 2018. These extreme reversals have also been occurring with AO and NAO in the Atlantic.

 

Hey there's a big blizzard going on in Hawaii.... how did arctic air make it all the way down there?

 

[LibertyBell]

53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Current pattern looks more like a La Niña January phase 5.

 

 

except there's no cold air in the west either

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Yes it was 1973 lol  The Belmont was a thing of beauty  The greatest horse of all time and it isn't even close.

 

I was born in that same year so he is my spirit animal, may he R.I.P.

 

[nycwinter]

21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Hey there's a big blizzard going on in Hawaii.... how did arctic air make it all the way down there?

 

elevation mountain peaks are pass 10.000 feet  sometimes their are blizzards on the big island summits..

[psv88]

The storms last night blew my patio furniture all over the yard, and broke my umbrella and table. Winds had to have been 50+ at some point, with the pounding hail. Was wild.

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Tellies are awful but the MJO  is heading into 7 . Slight  glimpse of hope.

7 is strong ridging over the east

[qg_omega]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

The storms last night blew my patio furniture all over the yard, and broke my umbrella and table. Winds had to have been 50+ at some point, with the pounding hail. Was wild.

Don’t think I had a rain drop here

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

If you read Eric Webb’s tweet chain I posted before, he explains why the models are incorrect for propagating the MJO wave into phase 7 with the current Niña state. They also propagate it too fast as well as too far. It has been stuck in phases 4-6 since the beginning of September 

Those RMM charts probably won’t be a reliable indicator of the pattern in situations like this. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

A Pacific MJO event is likely to destructively interfere with La Niña, and there remains uncertainty as to whether the MJO will maintain an organized structure, as evidenced by large ensemble spread in the RMM forecasts through mid-December. Any coherence of the intraseasonal signal is more likely to be south of the equator.