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December 2021


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19 minutes ago, wdrag said:

38 MPH gust at 841PM in Wantage NJ.

 

Awaiting on threads for the 6th and 8th for more consensus. Too close to being ordinary.  Hope EC is right but little worried when consensus is lacking. 

Gust of 34 here with 0.24 in the bucket for the15 minute FROPA event. No thunder.

A few days of model runs to see what’s trending for next Monday and Wednesday. Maybe some severe wx on Monday.

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Same here. I continue to love snowstorms as much as I did when I was young. So the lack of cold doesn’t really bother me that much. I can still remember going to the bus stop for school in the brutally cold 76-77 winter. That was probably our only winter that could resemble something during the little ice age. 

Ah this is one of the only subjects on which we part ways, Chris.  I live for face-burning cold in deep winters.  It’s a source of both personal pride and social ostracism.

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Both the 18z GFS and 0z NAM show a period of scattered flurries or light snow for parts of the area early Saturday morning. It's very light and a little warm, so not very exciting. But it's also the kind of weak but focused overrunning event that can get overlooked. The kind of situation where if you expect nothing and wake up to a surprise coating you're excited.

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Apparently not:

 

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
1003 PM EST Thu Dec 2 2021

CTZ006>008-010>012-030400-
Southern Middlesex CT-Southern New London CT-Northern New London CT-
Northern New Haven CT-Northern Middlesex CT-Southern New Haven CT-
1003 PM EST Thu Dec 2 2021

...Showers and thunderstorms will impact portions of New London,
central New Haven and Middlesex Counties through 1100 PM EST...

At 1002 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a broken line of showers
and thunderstorms along a line extending from 8 miles northwest of
Port Jefferson to near Ashford. Movement was northeast at 90 mph.
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7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Same here. I continue to love snowstorms as much as I did when I was young. So the lack of cold doesn’t really bother me that much. I can still remember going to the bus stop for school in the brutally cold 76-77 winter. That was probably our only winter that could resemble something during the little ice age. 

if we had as little snow during the little ice age as we did in 76-77 no thanks, must have been boring back then

 

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6 hours ago, bluewave said:

That was the last time we had a top 10 coldest fall and winter.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1871 51.7 0
2 1887 51.8 0
3 1875 52.0 0
4 1888 52.2 0
5 1869 52.4 0
6 1883 52.5 0
7 1917 52.7 0
- 1873 52.7 2
8 1889 53.2 0
- 1880 53.2 0
9 1876 53.4 2
10 1976 53.7 0
- 1872 53.7 0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1917-1918 25.7 0
2 1880-1881 26.5 0
3 1903-1904 27.3 0
4 1919-1920 27.4 0
5 1874-1875 27.7 4
- 1872-1873 27.7 0
6 1904-1905 28.1 0
7 1935-1936 28.3 0
8 1976-1977 28.4 0
- 1884-1885 28.4 0
- 1882-1883 28.4 0
9 1892-1893 28.6 0
- 1887-1888 28.6 0
10 1878-1879 29.0 2

 

it was overrated because we had mediocre snow and February was warm

 

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6 hours ago, bluewave said:

That was the last time we had a top 10 coldest fall and winter.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1871 51.7 0
2 1887 51.8 0
3 1875 52.0 0
4 1888 52.2 0
5 1869 52.4 0
6 1883 52.5 0
7 1917 52.7 0
- 1873 52.7 2
8 1889 53.2 0
- 1880 53.2 0
9 1876 53.4 2
10 1976 53.7 0
- 1872 53.7 0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1917-1918 25.7 0
2 1880-1881 26.5 0
3 1903-1904 27.3 0
4 1919-1920 27.4 0
5 1874-1875 27.7 4
- 1872-1873 27.7 0
6 1904-1905 28.1 0
7 1935-1936 28.3 0
8 1976-1977 28.4 0
- 1884-1885 28.4 0
- 1882-1883 28.4 0
9 1892-1893 28.6 0
- 1887-1888 28.6 0
10 1878-1879 29.0 2

 

besides 1917 and 1976 all the coldest falls are from the 1800s?

clearly UHI at play there

 

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6 hours ago, EasternLI said:

This is some big time amplification way over in the western Pacific. It's in a location that promotes the -PNA pattern advertised. That's also a +nao signal too. The pattern shown on ensembles has tons of support. Still thinking the Typhoon gave a little boost here. Don't be surprised if some of that record heat is somewhere in the east at some point soon. 

28.thumb.gif.566f3c2c31b4e8d70ee7f37b83d72f3c.gif

good I want my 70s!

wont snow so lets get it hot

 

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5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Final Records for December 2, 2021:

Billings: 69° (old record: 63°, 1939 and 1956)

Casper: 66° (old record: 59°, 1939) ***new December record***

Cheyenne: 70° (old record: 64°, 1885) ***new December record***

Dodge City, KS: 80° (old record: 74°, 1995)

Grand Island, NE: 73° (old record: 70°, 2012)

Great Falls: 60° (tied record set in 1941 and tied in 1959)

Helena: 64° (old record: 58°, 1941)

Kalispell, MT: 59° (old record: 57°, 1941)

Lincoln, NE: 71° (old record: 68°, 2012)

Missoula: 61° (old record: 58°, 1941)

North Platte, NE: 71° (old record: 69°, 1885 and 2012)

Omaha: 68° (old record: 67°, 1973)

Phoenix: 84° (tied record set in 2017)

Rapid City: 75° (old record: 69°, 1960) ***tied December record***

Sheridan, WY: 77° (old record: 70°, 1941) ***tied December record***

Sidney, NE: 78° (old record: 67°, 2017) ***2nd consecutive new December record***

Wichita: 74° (old record: 69°, 2012)

whats keeping us from getting all this nice weather, Don?

 

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9 hours ago, bluewave said:

All the long range guidance continues to advertise a very warm pattern this month. The only other highly amplified Aleutians Ridge, -PNA, +AO, and  SE Ridge La Niña December was 1984. But that doesn’t mean the rest of the winter will resemble 84-85 since we are in such a warmer climate now. A weaker match may mean that this winter tries to mount some sort of a comeback after December. Still way too early to speculate on the rest of the winter. 

9F2FB9E9-0CCC-4600-9EDC-DA01581D58DC.png.45282c0d0aad976af0148a81bef52f99.png

 

EPS

Dec 6 to 13

976DD9C4-1B85-4E12-87F1-8C3FF4547122.jpeg.a12481177a8b4398b9f16c304cd26471.jpeg

Dec 13-20

22105C2E-137D-4F5C-91D2-7F78219BF55F.jpeg.27f49c3f1974fe2ffd39f0b22a65f883.jpeg

Dec 20-27

8A5A61E2-709D-4D68-A997-C2F032D09F25.jpeg.2ab1f45f2bc941a7e5114e7e598247a0.jpeg

 

 

 

 

Jan 1985 contained the greatest arctic outbreak of our lifetimes.....so if we get that again that would be fun.  Then let it warm up in February lol

 

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