December 2021

[bluewave]

All the long range guidance continues to advertise a very warm pattern this month. The only other highly amplified Aleutians Ridge, -PNA, +AO, and  SE Ridge La Niña December was 1984. But that doesn’t mean the rest of the winter will resemble 84-85 since we are in such a warmer climate now. A weaker match may mean that this winter tries to mount some sort of a comeback after December. Still way too early to speculate on the rest of the winter. 

 

EPS

Dec 6 to 13

Dec 13-20

Dec 20-27

 

 

 

 

[matt8204]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, just goes to show how much warmer the models have corrected in recent days. The long range forecasts were about 30° colder. Somebody in NJ can make a run on 70° with enough sun. 
 
New run

Old run

 

 

I'm in.  Snow or torch for me these days.  I can't take that bone dry cold lol.  Terrible for my skin which is on the dry side anyway.  Just makes you not want to go outside either.  The cold bothers me a little more every year as I get older.

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Translation: There are no words that can fully describe how ugly that is. 

I think it's pretty amazing, especially with the cost of home heating oil this year. 

[Brian5671]

22 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I think it's pretty amazing, especially with the cost of home heating oil this year. 

A silver lining to a warm winter...lower heating costs!     

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

As I mentioned in the November thread.....people are setting themselves up to be disappointed.  The pattern the entire fall was awful heading into the winter season. 

Earlier in October there was some mention in the SNE subforum of 76-77 being a good analog year. I mentioned that I  would not use 76-77 as an analog because of climate change. At no point did the fall of 2021 compare to the fall of 1976.

I think the reason why  so many winter forecasts fail is because the individuals only do a winter forecast but not a forecast  for  the other 3 seasons. It is sort of like beginning to watch a movie 3/4 of the way thru the movie and trying to determine what is taking place.  

 

 

It’s always been clear we’d need Atlantic help this year to stop an awful Pacific pattern. The -PDO is the worst on record and that pattern will blast the lower 48 with warmth without blocking. 

[donsutherland1]

58 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I think it's pretty amazing, especially with the cost of home heating oil this year. 

That’s a fair point.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

A silver lining to a warm winter...lower heating costs!     

We definitely seem to be in the minority as an online community. Most people that I talk to like the fact that our winters have become so much warmer. While many of them would be happier living in Florida, their jobs and family are here. Winters have become warm and snowy or warm and snowless. Hard to believe our last cold and snowy winters were 13-14 and 14-15. Maybe we can eventually get another colder El Niño modoki winter.

[nyrangers1022]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We definitely seem to be in the minority as an online community. Most people that I talk to like the fact that our winters have become so much warmer. While many of them would be happier living in Florida, their jobs and family are here. Winters have become warm and snowy or warm and snowless. Hard to believe our last cold and snowy winters were 13-14 and 14-15. Maybe we can eventually get another colder El Niño modoki winter.

Im 34.  I love the warmth.  Ironically I work for a town so I have to plow snow, good OT, terrible social life in snowy winters.  Father lives most of the time if Florida, most of my family including my grandfather is down in Florida.  My Mom and my step father are looking to move from here to Florida.  My in laws, ones in South Carolina and other in Virginia.   I always joke with my wife that we and a few others are the only idiots in the family still in NY

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We definitely seem to be in the minority as an online community. Most people that I talk to like the fact that our winters have become so much warmer. While many of them would be happier living in Florida, their jobs and family are here. Winters have become warm and snowy or warm and snowless. Hard to believe our last cold and snowy winters were 13-14 and 14-15. Maybe we can eventually get another colder El Niño modoki winter.

I love snow more than anything but the bitter cold wears on me as I age LOL.   

[Nibor]

Wear more layers and thicken yer skins ya old fuds.

[Cfa]

Our annual December torch appears to be right on schedule.

[donsutherland1]

Despite mainly cloudy skies, the temperature surged into the upper 50s in much of the region. Modestly colder air will return tomorrow. No Arctic blasts appear likely for the foreseeable future even as meteorological winter has now gotten underway.

First measurable snowfall statistics for select cities:

Allentown: Normal: December 6; 2020-21: December 9
Bridgeport: Normal: December 3; 2020-21: December 16
Islip: Normal: December 10; 2020-21: December 16
New York City: Normal: December 13; 2020-21: December 16
Newark: Normal: December 9; 2020-21: December 9; 2021-22: November 28
Philadelphia: Normal: December 19; 2020-21: December 16

Out West, Denver has yet to see its first measurable snowfall through December 1. The previous record latest first measurable snowfall occurred on November 21, 1934. The progression of Denver's latest first measurable snowfall of the season is as follows:

November 11, 1882
November 16, 1894
November 19, 1931
November 21, 1934

Exceptional warmth again prevailed in parts of the West today. Preliminary record values included:

Billings: 69° (old record: 63°, 1939 and 1956)
Casper: 65° (old record: 59°, 1939) ***tied December record***
Cheyenne: 70° (old record: 64°, 1885) ***new December record***
Dodge City, KS: 79° (old record: 74°, 1995)
Grand Island, NE: 72° (old record: 70°, 2012)
Great Falls: 60° (tied record set in 1941 and tied in 1959)
Helena: 64° (old record: 58°, 1941)
Kalispell, MT: 59° (old record: 57°, 1941)
Lincoln, NE: 70° (old record: 68°, 2012)
Missoula: 61° (old record: 58°, 1941)
North Platte, NE: 69° (tied record set in 1885 and tied in 2012)
Omaha: 67° (tied record set in 1973)
Rapid City: 73° (old record: 69°, 1960)
Sheridan, WY: 76° (old record: 70°, 1941)
Sidney, NE: 76° (old record: 67°, 2017) ***2nd consecutive new December record***
Wichita: 74° (old record: 69°, 2012)

Atlantic blocking (AO and NAO) has now broken down even earlier than had been modeled just a few days ago. In response, the first half of December will likely be warmer than normal. Afterward, developments related to the EPO and AO could determine the outcome for much of the remainder of the month.

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter.

The SOI was +10.74 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.452 today.

On November 30 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.155 (RMM). The November 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.018 (RMM).

 

[BxEngine]

Am i the weird one for thinking its asinine to come here to mock forecasts made elsewhere? Wgaf. Its odd. 

[ForestHillWx]

Warm it up! I still have honey supers to pull and have had no time to do it. Not to mention split another cord or two for January. 

[Great Snow 1717]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We definitely seem to be in the minority as an online community. Most people that I talk to like the fact that our winters have become so much warmer. While many of them would be happier living in Florida, their jobs and family are here. Winters have become warm and snowy or warm and snowless. Hard to believe our last cold and snowy winters were 13-14 and 14-15. Maybe we can eventually get another colder El Niño modoki winter.

Someone would have to bound and gag me to get me to move to Florida...

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I love snow more than anything but the bitter cold wears on me as I age LOL.   

Same here. I continue to love snowstorms as much as I did when I was young. So the lack of cold doesn’t really bother me that much. I can still remember going to the bus stop for school in the brutally cold 76-77 winter. That was probably our only winter that could resemble something during the little ice age. 

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Same here. I continue to love snowstorms as much as I did when I was young. So the lack of cold doesn’t really bother me that much. I can still remember going to the bus stop for school in the brutally cold 76-77 winter. That was probably our only winter that could resemble something during the little ice age. 

76-77 was fantastic. I would sign up for a repeat of that winter 

[WarrenCtyWx]

2 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I mentioned that using analog years from 25-60 years ago is useless because of climate change but it got dismissed by the usual suspects.  People who love cold/snowy weather will downplay  most anything that doesn't give a signal of cold/snowy weather. 

I love a cold/snowy winter but I long ago accepted the reality of climate change. 

Would warm winters from that long ago also not be applicable as analogs?

[rclab]

On 12/2/2021 at 5:08 PM, Nibor said:

Wear more layers and thicken yer skins ya old fuds.

Good evening Nibor. If I owned a printer and knew how to use it, your post would have an honored place on my refrigerator. As always …

[SnoSki14]

Maybe a blowtorch December like 2015 will lead to a monstrous snowstorm in Jan. The waters are gonna be like rocket fuel ,

That's been one of the themes following a massive torch. We saw it after the 80F Feb reading as well.

[Nibor]

13 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good evening Nibor. If I owned a printer and new how to use it, your post would have an honored place on my refrigerator. As always …

Thanks Dad, I know my report card would never make it on there so my shit posting will have to do.

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

76-77 was fantastic. I would sign up for a repeat of that winter 

That was the last time we had a top 10 coldest fall and winter.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1871	51.7	0
2	1887	51.8	0
3	1875	52.0	0
4	1888	52.2	0
5	1869	52.4	0
6	1883	52.5	0
7	1917	52.7	0
-	1873	52.7	2
8	1889	53.2	0
-	1880	53.2	0
9	1876	53.4	2
10	1976	53.7	0
-	1872	53.7	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1917-1918	25.7	0
2	1880-1881	26.5	0
3	1903-1904	27.3	0
4	1919-1920	27.4	0
5	1874-1875	27.7	4
-	1872-1873	27.7	0
6	1904-1905	28.1	0
7	1935-1936	28.3	0
8	1976-1977	28.4	0
-	1884-1885	28.4	0
-	1882-1883	28.4	0
9	1892-1893	28.6	0
-	1887-1888	28.6	0
10	1878-1879	29.0	2

 

[LoboLeader1]

Reached 55* here this afternoon. 

[EasternLI]

This is some big time amplification way over in the western Pacific. It's in a location that promotes the -PNA pattern advertised. That's also a +nao signal too. The pattern shown on ensembles has tons of support. Still thinking the Typhoon gave a little boost here. Don't be surprised if some of that record heat is somewhere in the east at some point soon. 

[rclab]

44 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Thanks Dad, I know my report card would never make it on there so my shit posting will have to do.

That’s what you get for hanging out with Will  Don't worry, everything has a purpose son. Think of your report card as a learning tool for pre algebraic negative numbers. As always ….

[qg_omega]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

All the long range guidance continues to advertise a very warm pattern this month. The only other highly amplified Aleutians Ridge, -PNA, +AO, and  SE Ridge La Niña December was 1984. But that doesn’t mean the rest of the winter will resemble 84-85 since we are in such a warmer climate now. A weaker match may mean that this winter tries to mount some sort of a comeback after December. Still way too early to speculate on the rest of the winter. 

 

EPS

Dec 6 to 13

Dec 13-20

Dec 20-27

 

 

 

 

As worse as it gets

[donsutherland1]

Final Records for December 2, 2021:

Billings: 69° (old record: 63°, 1939 and 1956)

Casper: 66° (old record: 59°, 1939) ***new December record***

Cheyenne: 70° (old record: 64°, 1885) ***new December record***

Dodge City, KS: 80° (old record: 74°, 1995)

Grand Island, NE: 73° (old record: 70°, 2012)

Great Falls: 60° (tied record set in 1941 and tied in 1959)

Helena: 64° (old record: 58°, 1941)

Kalispell, MT: 59° (old record: 57°, 1941)

Lincoln, NE: 71° (old record: 68°, 2012)

Missoula: 61° (old record: 58°, 1941)

North Platte, NE: 71° (old record: 69°, 1885 and 2012)

Omaha: 68° (old record: 67°, 1973)

Phoenix: 84° (tied record set in 2017)

Rapid City: 75° (old record: 69°, 1960) ***tied December record***

Sheridan, WY: 77° (old record: 70°, 1941) ***tied December record***

Sidney, NE: 78° (old record: 67°, 2017) ***2nd consecutive new December record***

Wichita: 74° (old record: 69°, 2012)

[weathermedic]

It's December but...

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
746 PM EST Thu Dec 2 2021

CTZ005-NJZ002-NYZ067>070-030145-
Northern Fairfield CT-Western Passaic NJ-Putnam NY-Rockland NY-
Northern Westchester NY-Orange NY-
746 PM EST Thu Dec 2 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of north central
Fairfield, western Passaic, northern Westchester, Orange, Putnam and
Rockland Counties through 845 PM EST...

At 745 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Greentown to near Philmont. Movement was east
at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Newburgh, Middletown, West Milford, Peekskill, Ringwood, Mahopac,
Monroe, Lake Carmel, Walden, West Point, Warwick, Goshen, Sherman,
Sloatsburg and Cold Spring.

[White Gorilla]

38 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

It's December but...

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
746 PM EST Thu Dec 2 2021

CTZ005-NJZ002-NYZ067>070-030145-
Northern Fairfield CT-Western Passaic NJ-Putnam NY-Rockland NY-
Northern Westchester NY-Orange NY-
746 PM EST Thu Dec 2 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of north central
Fairfield, western Passaic, northern Westchester, Orange, Putnam and
Rockland Counties through 845 PM EST...

At 745 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Greentown to near Philmont. Movement was east
at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Newburgh, Middletown, West Milford, Peekskill, Ringwood, Mahopac,
Monroe, Lake Carmel, Walden, West Point, Warwick, Goshen, Sherman,
Sloatsburg and Cold Spring.

Pretty out of the ordinary isn't it? 

[MJO812]

Eps is not bad for our area with the storm next week