December 2021

[EastonSN+]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I guess it isn’t a surprise that December is the fastest warming winter month around the area. It’s like the seasons are getting pushed back. Summer into fall and fall into December. It was another top 5 or top 10 warmest fall for a large part of the country.
 

 

It does feel like April is cooler than normal as well recently. Can't remember last time we had a great April.

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It does feel like April is cooler than normal as well recently. Can't remember last time we had a great April.

The monthly temperature increases from 81-10 to 91-20 have been more pronounced during certain months. Newark and Islip are compared below. The +1.0 or warmer months for either station were bolded. 

……….EWR…..ISP

Dec…+1.5….+1.5

Jan….+1.2…+1.3

Feb….+0.5….+0.5

 

Mar….+0.4….+0.6

Apr….+0.5…..+0.6

May...+0.6….+0.9

 

Jun….+0.3….+0.6

Jul…..+1.4…..+1.1

Aug...+0.6….+0.9

 

Sep….+1.0….+1.3

Oct…..+0.9..+1.4

Nov….+0.2..+0.5

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

I guess it isn’t a surprise that December is the fastest warming winter month around the area. It’s like the seasons are getting pushed back. Summer into fall and fall into December. It was another top 5 or top 10 warmest fall for a large part of the country.
 

 

Very good consensus from this far out: 

 

 

[MJO812]

We are talking about 378 hours here ^^^

[lee59]

56 degrees here, feels good especially after a string of chilly days.

[bluewave]

57 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Very good consensus from this far out: 

We don’t even need to look that far out to see how ridiculously warm this month is starting in the US and Southern Canada.
 

 

 

[MJO812]

Despite the thread the needle event possibly for next week , the pattern doesn't look good for the foreseeable future.  Teleconnections are awful 

[KEITH L.I]

This is the warm board lol I knew when Bluewave and Snowman 19 start copying each others posts this morning I knew the blowtorch cometh

[Brian5671]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Despite the thread the needle event possibly for next week , the pattern doesn't look good for the foreseeable future.  Teleconnections are awful 

so much for the big Thanksgiving to xmas great pattern some were barking about....never really saw it given what's out there....almost nothing in our favor....

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

so much for the big Thanksgiving to xmas great pattern some were barking about....never really saw it given what's out there....almost nothing in our favor....

Agree

Those forecasts are already busting. Watch the 2nd half be really good which would not be normal in LA nina winters

 

[CIK62]

Presented w/o comment:     Dec. 03-18.....  43/55 = 49 = +11  nowadays  just +8.

 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Agree

Those forecasts are already busting. Watch the 2nd half be really good which would not be normal in LA nina winters

 

Last few years have had some surprises both good and bad so who knows.   19-20 was horrid but we had a nice bounceback last year

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Presented w/o comment:

 

Translation: There are no words that can fully describe how ugly that is. 

[Brian5671]

Normally I'd say that's overdone, but the warmth always seems to over perform.

[matt8204]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Normally I'd say that's overdone, but the warmth always seems to over perform.

65 on Monday forecasted for my area.

[Stormlover74]

Might as well try and beat December 2015

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, matt8204 said:

65 on Monday forecasted for my area.

Yeah, just goes to show how much warmer the models have corrected in recent days. The long range forecasts were about 30° colder. Somebody in NJ can make a run on 70° with enough sun. 
 
New run

Old run

 

 

[KEITH L.I]

14 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Presented w/o comment:     Dec. 03-18.....  43/55 = 49 = +11  nowadays  just +8.

 

Nah don't think it will be extreme. It just doesn't fit Nina climo for December.Only blowtorches like that are strong Nino's..Will December be above normal?..yea, but not like that

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said:

Nah don't think it will be extreme. It just doesn't fit Nina climo for December.Only blowtorches like that are strong Nino's..Will December be above normal?..yea, but not like that

Have you seen the record blasting heat out west?

[snowman19]

44 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

so much for the big Thanksgiving to xmas great pattern some were barking about....never really saw it given what's out there....almost nothing in our favor....

It was actually the epic arctic cold and snow pattern that was supposed to lock in the east from Thanksgiving week until the New Year. That was hyped since early September by a certain someone lol Another monumental bust as usual 

[jm1220]

51 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Translation: There are no words that can fully describe how ugly that is. 

If there won’t be any snow I’d rather it be warm. Nothing worse than wasted cold. That’s why the 19-20 winter wasn’t so terrible to me. Very little wasted cold, just wall to wall warm. The worst for me are the ones where there are rainy warm cutters that are frigid behind the cold front, then keep repeating. 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If there won’t be any snow I’d rather it be warm. Nothing worse than wasted cold. That’s why the 19-20 winter wasn’t so terrible to me. Very little wasted cold, just wall to wall warm. The worst for me are the ones where there are rainy warm cutters that are frigid behind the cold front, then keep repeating. 

19-20 gave new meaning to the term backloaded winter.

https://gothamist.com/news/videos-nyc-reacts-freaky-may-snowfall

[Eduardo]

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Presented w/o comment:     Dec. 03-18.....  43/55 = 49 = +11  nowadays  just +8.

 

Barfffff.  I've seen enough.  First two-and-a-half weeks of the month are toast! 

[donsutherland1]

47 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It was actually the epic arctic cold and snow pattern that was supposed to lock in the east from Thanksgiving week until the New Year. That was hyped since early September by a certain someone lol Another monumental bust as usual 

I saw some of those social media posts. Despite the social media chatter, December 2021 was not destined to become a “repeat” of December 1995 (or winter 2021-22 to become a kind of replay of 1995-96). Then, the PDO was neutral/weakly positive, strong/severe Atlantic blocking + a persistent PNA+ developed after the first week of December.

This time around, things are starkly different. The PDO is strongly negative, Atlantic blocking dissipated with none shown for at least the next two weeks, and a PNA- regime is set to develop.
 

Posted maps on social media showing similarities lack context (384-hour maps showing extreme Arctic outbreaks, etc., lack skill). One needs to dig into the details that are never provided on social media. The big differences between 1995 and 2021 suggest that any similarities at 500 mb or surface anomalies in the near-term would likely be brief.

[snowman19]

18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I saw some of those social media posts. Despite the social media chatter, December 2021 was not destined to become a “repeat” of December 1995 (or winter 2021-22 to become a kind of replay of 1995-96). Then, the PDO was neutral/weakly positive, strong/severe Atlantic blocking + a persistent PNA+ developed after the first week of December.

This time around, things are starkly different. The PDO is strongly negative, Atlantic blocking dissipated with none shown for at least the next two weeks, and a PNA- regime is set to develop.
 

Posted maps on social media showing similarities lack context (384-hour maps showing extreme Arctic outbreaks, etc., lack skill). One needs to dig into the details that are never provided on social media. The big differences between 1995 and 2021 suggest that any similarities at 500 mb or surface anomalies in the near-term would likely be brief.

The use of 95-96 as an analog for this winter was preposterous. A wishcast through and through. 

 

[bluewave]

Central Park getting back closer to reality now the leaves blocking the sensor are falling.

Regional Weather Roundup
National Weather Service New York NY
200 PM EST THU DEC 02 2021

Note: "FAIR" indicates few or no clouds below 12,000 feet with no
significant weather and/or obstructions to visibility.

NYZ071-072-176-178-NJZ106-104-022000-
New York City Metro Area

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
Central Park   PTSUNNY   57  43  59 VRB6      29.67F
World Trd Ctr  NOT AVBL
Bronx Lehman C   N/A     55  43  62 SW8         N/A
LaGuardia Arpt CLOUDY    58  42  55 SW10      29.65F
Queens College   N/A     57  43  58 SW12        N/A
Kennedy Intl   CLOUDY    55  45  68 S6        29.67F
Breezy Point     N/A     55 N/A N/A S3          N/A
Brooklyn Coll    N/A     57  43  58 S7          N/A
Staten Island    N/A     57  43  58 SW8         N/A
Newark/Liberty CLOUDY    59  44  57 SW13      29.64F
Teterboro      PTSUNNY   54  44  69 SW8       29.63F
$$

NYZ177-179-078>081-022000-
Long Island New York

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
Jones Beach      N/A     54 N/A N/A S9          N/A
Wantagh          N/A     54  48  82 S8          N/A
Hempstead      NOT AVBL
Matinecock Pt    N/A     55 N/A N/A SW9         N/A
Farmingdale    CLOUDY    54  45  71 SW10      29.67F
MacArthur/ISP  CLOUDY    53  46  77 SW10      29.67F
Stony Brook      N/A     55  45  67 S5          N/A
Shirley        CLOUDY    54  45  71 S8        29.67F
Mt Sinai Harb    N/A     55 N/A N/A S5          N/A
Westhampton    CLOUDY    53  47  79 SW10      29.68F
East Hampton   PTSUNNY   53  46  77 SW8       29.67F
Southold         N/A     54  45  71 S9          N/A
Montauk          N/A     54  48  80 SW9G17    29.68F

 

[Great Snow 1717]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

so much for the big Thanksgiving to xmas great pattern some were barking about....never really saw it given what's out there....almost nothing in our favor....

As I mentioned in the November thread.....people are setting themselves up to be disappointed.  The pattern the entire fall was awful heading into the winter season. 

Earlier in October there was some mention in the SNE subforum of 76-77 being a good analog year. I mentioned that I  would not use 76-77 as an analog because of climate change. At no point did the fall of 2021 compare to the fall of 1976.

I think the reason why  so many winter forecasts fail is because the individuals only do a winter forecast but not a forecast  for  the other 3 seasons. It is sort of like beginning to watch a movie 3/4 of the way thru the movie and trying to determine what is taking place.  

 

 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

As I mentioned in the November thread.....people are setting themselves up to be disappointed.  The pattern the entire fall was awful heading into the winter season. 

Earlier in October there was some mention in the SNE subforum of 76-77 being a good analog year. I mentioned that I  would not use 76-77 as an analog because of climate change. At no point did the fall of 2021 compare to the fall of 1976.

I think the reason why  so many winter forecasts fail is because the individuals only do a winter forecast but not for  the other 3 seasons. It is sort of like beginning to watch a movie 3/4 of the way thru the movie and trying to determine what is taking place.  

 

 

a couple problems I see that are largely being ignored.  The cold pool of water south of AK.  That tends to favor a vortex over AK which is never good for us.  The use of analogs from 30-50 yrs ago-the base state is warmer so how useful are they???

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

a couple problems I see that are largely being ignored.  The cold pool of water south of AK.  That tends to favor a vortex over AK which is never good for us.  The use of analogs from 30-50 yrs ago-the base state is warmer so how useful are they???

I mentioned that using analog years from 25-60 years ago is useless because of climate change but it got dismissed by the usual suspects.  People who love cold/snowy weather will downplay  most anything that doesn't give a signal of cold/snowy weather. 

I love a cold/snowy winter but I long ago accepted the reality of climate change. 

[Great Snow 1717]

19 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, just goes to show how much warmer the models have corrected in recent days. The long range forecasts were about 30° colder. Somebody in NJ can make a run on 70° with enough sun. 
 
New run

Old run

 

 

Betting on warmth is like betting on Secretariat in 1973....