December 2021

[wdrag]

Just a couple of images from the 06z EC. IGNORE the ICE northern MA as that has already occurred.  

By the way,  12z HRRR has a period of sleet for NYC/LI Monday evening and its 2m temps tend to be constantly  too warm in my estimation.  So i very much like what was placed on the nw-ne suburbs thread at 730A.  What i may do is start an OBS -NOWCAST thread for our area Monday morning if it still looks promising that sleet occurs for a few minutes NYC-LI. 

Note the 18z Monday picture of snow crabbing into out interior (06z/26 EC), and the total freezing rain expectation of the 06z/26 EC op model by daybreak Tuesday.  Images courtesy Weather Models.com and the EC  Centre.

[CIK62]

The last 6 days of December are averaging  42degs.(38/47),or +8>>>+5 nowadays.

Month to date is  43.7[+3.9].    December should end at  43.3[+4.2].

Reached 53 here yesterday.

Today:  47-49, wind nw. and breezy, m. clear.

First 10 days of January maybe as low as 25/35 = 30, but the runs are completely erratic.

47*(67%RH) here at 6am.    45* at 8am.      50* at 2pm.

[the_other_guy]

Quickly becoming the symbol of this winter

 

45F, shorts. Another week of 50F inbound!

[wdrag]

NAM has been trying this for a few cycles... a second batch of precip mostly snow-sleet later Tue.  12z cycle does interest me... presuming it's mid level FGEN Tuesday.  

Monday WAA looks period of snow or sleet to ice (widespread) to me from Allentown northeastward to NYC-LI Monday afternoon-eve with probably no glaze NYC-LI. Of interest to me is cooling BL temps on the 12z//26 NAM through most of the cycle. Where it is trying to warm NYC...a south BL wind in precip of 10 knots or less is not going to yield the forecast temp during the precip (it will end up cooler). 

[lee59]

45 minutes ago, wdrag said:

NAM has been trying this for a few cycles... a second batch of precip mostly snow-sleet later Tue.  12z cycle does interest me... presuming it's mid level FGEN Tuesday.  

Monday WAA looks period of snow or sleet to ice (widespread) to me from Allentown northeastward to NYC-LI Monday afternoon-eve with probably no glaze NYC-LI. Of interest to me is cooling BL temps on the 12z//26 NAM through most of the cycle. Where it is trying to warm NYC...a south BL wind in precip of 10 knots or less is not going to yield the forecast temp during the precip (it will end up cooler). 

Thanks, like reading your updates and input.

[wdrag]

EC will be my tipping point to begin a thread for mixed wintry precip episode #1 Mon afternoon-early night.  IF the soon to arrive EC is more bullish, will begin the thread. I have a number of graphics ready to go. 

 

As for late Tuesday-early Tuesday night: Indeed significant mid level FGEN.  IFFFF this NAM portrayal (see two attached screen shots for 10PM Tuesday) is anywhere close, it's going to be an interesting 3-6 hr period of snow that could fall at an inch an hour rate for a short time across the I84 corridor. See FGEN as modeled by the colder than most all other models NAM.  Something to keep in mind as the NAM has been locked onto this idea for several cycles. I can see the Global models being too far north.  

Still 44/29 here in Wantage at 1PM Sunday so am still a little worried model BL is forecast too cold on Monday but will monitor trends. 

[EastonSN+]

Would be funny if we get close to shut out then have a 2018 type March/April and reach seasonal average.

12z runs discouraging BUT ensembles look on track.

[the_other_guy]

Dec 26

[wdrag]

40 minutes ago, wdrag said:

EC will be my tipping point to begin a thread for mixed wintry precip episode #1 Mon afternoon-early night.  IF the soon to arrive EC is more bullish, will begin the thread. I have a number of graphics ready to go. 

 

As for late Tuesday-early Tuesday night: Indeed significant mid level FGEN.  IFFFF this NAM portrayal (see two attached screen shots for 10PM Tuesday) is anywhere close, it's going to be an interesting 3-6 hr period of snow that could fall at an inch an hour rate for a short time across the I84 corridor. See FGEN as modeled by the colder than most all other models NAM.  Something to keep in mind as the NAM has been locked onto this idea for several cycles. I can see the Global models being too far north.  

Still 44/29 here in Wantage at 1PM Sunday so am still a little worried model BL is forecast too cold on Monday but will monitor trends. 

12z/26 EC doesn't show the eastward progression that I expect. It could be too conservative. Am waiting out a thread. 

[qg_omega]

44 minutes ago, wdrag said:

EC will be my tipping point to begin a thread for mixed wintry precip episode #1 Mon afternoon-early night.  IF the soon to arrive EC is more bullish, will begin the thread. I have a number of graphics ready to go. 

 

As for late Tuesday-early Tuesday night: Indeed significant mid level FGEN.  IFFFF this NAM portrayal (see two attached screen shots for 10PM Tuesday) is anywhere close, it's going to be an interesting 3-6 hr period of snow that could fall at an inch an hour rate for a short time across the I84 corridor. See FGEN as modeled by the colder than most all other models NAM.  Something to keep in mind as the NAM has been locked onto this idea for several cycles. I can see the Global models being too far north.  

Still 44/29 here in Wantage at 1PM Sunday so am still a little worried model BL is forecast too cold on Monday but will monitor trends. 

Don’t see any threat on any of these, maybe some light rain or drizzle

[SnoSki14]

33 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Would be funny if we get close to shut out then have a 2018 type March/April and reach seasonal average.

12z runs discouraging BUT ensembles look on track.

That's pretty much what I'm betting on.

[donsutherland1]

42 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Dec 26

Forsythia are in partial bloom across a large part of the area.

[rclab]

44 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Forsythia are in partial bloom across a large part of the area.

Good afternoon Don. It seems, locally, only the summer season can hold on to its identity. As always ….

[bluewave]

Still some trees with leaves for the first snowfall in NYC.

 

 

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Don’t see any threat on any of these, maybe some light rain or drizzle

Stop trolling Walt

[RippleEffect]

snow has entered the chat room!

[Allsnow]

[bluewave]

Really extreme sounding warmth under the record Aleutians Ridge. 
 

 

 

[MJO812]

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Stop trolling Walt

Thank you. With zero to back it up. We need the few good posters left or this board is shot. 

Walt, keep up excellent informative posts. Real meteorology vs. agenda biased modelology.

frozen may be a stretch for the coast, but this board includes areas inland and elevated enough to be in the game 

[WeatherFox]

 

 

NWS Eastern Region

 

@NWSEastern

 

"A look at how far below average the seasonal snowfall totals are running at Eastern US climate locations as of December 26th."  5 more days to make some revisions!

[psv88]

5 minutes ago, WeatherFox said:

 

 

NWS Eastern Region

 

@NWSEastern

 

"A look at how far below average the seasonal snowfall totals are running at Eastern US climate locations as of December 26th."  5 more days to make some revisions!

Looks like almost no lake effect so far this year. 

[wdrag]

4 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Don’t see any threat on any of these, maybe some light rain or drizzle

I respectfully disagree...  GFS is coming around on both episodes as is the RGEM.  No time right now for thread.  Will look at more data and probably start it at 9P tonight. I think NYC will see a little sleet Monday evening while freezing rain is within 15 miles of the city.  The ice probably won't be a hazard except untreated surfaces, which is where stepping outside unaware becomes a problem. 

Tuesday evening is looking a bit more potent along the NYS/PA border to portions of the I84 corridor and I think that FGEN has a good chance of working some surprises. 

[MJO812]

[WeatherFox]

23 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Looks like almost no lake effect so far this year. 

Yes, including a number of zero cities and trace cities..

[bluewave]

More ridiculous December heat for the next 5 days will give DFW the warmest December on record by a wide margin.

Time Series Summary for Dallas-Fort Worth Area, TX (ThreadEx) - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	60.2	6
2	1933	54.0	0
3	2015	53.6	0
4	1970	53.5	0
5	1965	52.8	0
-	1939	52.8	0

 

[TugHillMatt]

26 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Looks like almost no lake effect so far this year. 

 

3 minutes ago, WeatherFox said:

Yes, including a number of zero cities and trace cities..

Yeah, lake effect has been very minimal the past couple years. This year's deficit is about the same as last year's at this time. With barely any cold air moving over the warm lakes, we continue to fall farther behind our averages. The lakes are also several degrees (in general) warmer than average. If we can get some good cold air combined with a nice moisture feed over those warm waters, we could quickly erase those deficits. Many of us Upstate weenies are certainly hoping for that!

[psv88]

13 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

 

Yeah, lake effect has been very minimal the past couple years. This year's deficit is about the same as last year's at this time. With barely any cold air moving over the warm lakes, we continue to fall farther behind our averages. The lakes are also several degrees (in general) warmer than average. If we can get some good cold air combined with a nice moisture feed over those warm waters, we could quickly erase those deficits. Many of us Upstate weenies are certainly hoping for that!

Good luck!

[EasternLI]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

More ridiculous December heat for the next 5 days will give DFW the warmest December on record by a wide margin.

Time Series Summary for Dallas-Fort Worth Area, TX (ThreadEx) - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	60.2	6
2	1933	54.0	0
3	2015	53.6	0
4	1970	53.5	0
5	1965	52.8	0
-	1939	52.8	0

 

I look at that map and see a recipe for an ugly severe event. 

[lee59]

35 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

 

Yeah, lake effect has been very minimal the past couple years. This year's deficit is about the same as last year's at this time. With barely any cold air moving over the warm lakes, we continue to fall farther behind our averages. The lakes are also several degrees (in general) warmer than average. If we can get some good cold air combined with a nice moisture feed over those warm waters, we could quickly erase those deficits. Many of us Upstate weenies are certainly hoping for that!

Maybe in about a weeks time.