December 2021

[MJO812]

Looking much better 

 

Not sure how much this will amplify for the event in early January.

[MJO812]

Close

[the_other_guy]

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The Monday deal could easily punch warmth too far north or get shredded. Riding the narrow cold leading edge of a warm front is a tricky proposition. The important thing is there are a few medium and larger range wintry threats to keep entertained for now.

too warm. You need to start with some cold air to make these thread the needle threats work. There’s a good chance I won’t even go below freezing until the 30th… i’m 15 miles north of the city.

[eduggs]

10 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

too warm. You need to start with some cold air to make these thread the needle threats work. There’s a good chance I won’t even go below freezing until the 30th… i’m 15 miles north of the city.

It should cool down a bit Sunday night and there's a bit of a northerly cold drain at least until early Mon. on current guidance. Even if it's a little warm on Monday, the low level dry air could allow wet bulbing down to near freezing if precip. materializes. Still obviously too far away for confidence.

[NEG NAO]

37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Close

 

57 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Better than relying on the op

Are you serious ?

as serious as you

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

 

as serious as you

Post the ensembles

They show a signal but are all over 

 Not shocking this far out

[MJO812]

Pattern looks much better on the geps , eps and gefs going forward in early January.  A negative epo is also showing up.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Nibor said:

I have my limits. 
 

Also I’m not fat, I’m a thicc boi. 

granted haha, also I dont actually want 110 here, but if Newark airport hits it, it's okay (they're 5 degrees warmer than the rest of the area anyway.)  I just want NYC and JFK to hit 100 just once during the summer and not be stuck at 98 or 99 while LGA and EWR get to have all the fun.

 

[Stormlover74]

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Pattern looks much better on the geps , eps and gefs going forward in early January.  A negative epo is also showing up.

why is this changing so radically from day to day and even from run to run?

how can you have any faith in these changes when it could just as easily change again tomorrow (or later tonight!)

let's just wait until it actually changes to say we're going to have a good pattern.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Christmas's best tradition are the ugly sweaters, so thanks for keeping the tradition alive!

 

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Pattern looks much better on the geps , eps and gefs going forward in early January.  A negative epo is also showing up.

There will be chances 1st half of January

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Euro continues to show some front end snow

does this change to rain in the middle of the storm or only when it's about to end (as drizzle)? is this all at night or does it snow in the morning too?

[Stormlover74]

29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

does this change to rain in the middle of the storm or only when it's about to end (as drizzle)? is this all at night or does it snow in the morning too?

It's a small system that ends as rain with a much bigger rainstorm a couple days later

[EasternLI]

Watch the progression. Focus by Japan. The west Pacific Jet extends and shoves the ridge poleward. Going to have to watch that. That's looking kind of legit. 

[brooklynwx99]

The GEFS and EPS have a gorgeous pattern evolution towards the end of their runs... this is thanks to the extension of the Pacific jet in the medium-long range:

This jet extension is thanks in part to the +EAMT that is forecasted to develop in the short range:

So, overall, it looks like there is some forcing that may be able to shake up this pattern. The jet extension will allow for the anomalous Aleutian ridge to build poleward and kick the mean trough out of the Pac NW and into the N Plains. This, in turn will allow for cold air to bleed into the E US:

It's nice to see the changes to the Pacific jet, as those kinds of shifts on modeling are usually representative of a large shift in the pattern and not a temporary blip. It's great to see the blocking signal still holding strong as well, as the 50/50 ULL and -NAO remain prominent features throughout the runs. As long as the mean position of the trough changes to anywhere east of where it is now, that would be a massive improvement. The patterns on the end of the runs would be quite cold and stormy with the Pacific becoming much more favorable with the cold dumping into the midsection of the country.

Now, of course, this could be a head fake, but I really don't believe so. The MJO is taking its time propagating through the Pacific, and Phase 7 forcing is more favorable in January anyway, so I don't see it as an issue. The +EAMT is also forecast to begin very soon, and the changes to the jet over the Pacific aren't very far out either. The forcing mechanisms that might help shake things up are in a tangible range.

Overall, I would like to see these changes continue into the weekend. The Jan 2 period is intriguing, as there could be some TPV influence in Canada and some SS wave trying to cut underneath. That's really all you can say at this range. However, it's nice that we're getting some chances, and we have that possible threat as well as the small WAA push in a couple days that's worth keeping an eye on for some light snow.

[SnowGoose69]

3 hours ago, eduggs said:

Nice shift on the Euro towards a 1-3" type deal. Gets snow into SENY and WCT. It actually appears to be the furthers northeast of the major models. The 500mb s/w vorticity also survives a bit longer as it traverses NE.

Monday has some potential but usually in those events I prefer to see the high positioned over far SE Canada or sliding offshore vs being up in Ontario.  With a shearing out wave like that you could count on more overrunning being generated in those situations.  

[NorthShoreWx]

Much cooler than forecasted here this afternoon.  Max was 36 and it's 33 at 5pm.

Edit: actually not that much cooler.  Forecast was for high 30s.  I was thinking of yesterday's forecast which called for 40s today.

[NEG NAO]

Fogetabout Any Monday Potential of snow in NYC

https://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html

[Roger Smith]

I dropped by to make a comment that seems to be in line with what people are seeing in subtle changes in the maps out around days 6-10, the cold air out here is not hammering south and will be met with some resistance, it won't just all settle into the Great Basin which can be a death sentence for winter on the east coast. In fact none of this cold air seems to be heading very far south of the border, currently there's a stubborn wave in eastern WA holding it back and even where I am the colder air is not here yet, nor does it look like it will get here until maybe Tuesday which means a lot of this severe arctic cold is going to bounce east through the prairies into northern Ontario. While there isn't a lot of southward push on it there, at least it gets close enough to be useful if the pattern does begin to change for the better. So it isn't looking like some carbon copy of 1949-50 with the large amplitude ridge-trough setup that kept it very mild in the east to mid-Feb (albeit there was some decent winter weather for a few weeks in late Feb and early Mar that winter) or worse 1948-49 which had severe blizzards in the Rocky Mountain states and the Great Basin and nothing but mild weather most of the winter in the east. Could be more like 1968-69 which had intervals of severe cold out this way but also a good coastal storm track and retrograde events indicating blocking over the eastern arctic. I think from what I can recall of that winter (very dry and a bit on the mild side in Ontario) there was just enough cold air around to feed into those coastal storms to give some decent snowfalls even though it wasn't what you would call a cold winter. 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

I dropped by to make a comment that seems to be in line with what people are seeing in subtle changes in the maps out around days 6-10, the cold air out here is not hammering south and will be met with some resistance, it won't just all settle into the Great Basin which can be a death sentence for winter on the east coast. In fact none of this cold air seems to be heading very far south of the border, currently there's a stubborn wave in eastern WA holding it back and even where I am the colder air is not here yet, nor does it look like it will get here until maybe Tuesday which means a lot of this severe arctic cold is going to bounce east through the prairies into northern Ontario. While there isn't a lot of southward push on it there, at least it gets close enough to be useful if the pattern does begin to change for the better. So it isn't looking like some carbon copy of 1949-50 with the large amplitude ridge-trough setup that kept it very mild in the east to mid-Feb (albeit there was some decent winter weather for a few weeks in late Feb and early Mar that winter) or worse 1948-49 which had severe blizzards in the Rocky Mountain states and the Great Basin and nothing but mild weather most of the winter in the east. Could be more like 1968-69 which had intervals of severe cold out this way but also a good coastal storm track and retrograde events indicating blocking over the eastern arctic. I think from what I can recall of that winter (very dry and a bit on the mild side in Ontario) there was just enough cold air around to feed into those coastal storms to give some decent snowfalls even though it wasn't what you would call a cold winter. 

This is 68 -69 snowfall Central Park

1968-69 0 0 0 0 T 7.0 1.0 16.6 5.6 0 0 0 30.2

[bluewave]

Another all-time highest temperature for December.

 

 

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

The GEFS and EPS have a gorgeous pattern evolution towards the end of their runs... this is thanks to the extension of the Pacific jet in the medium-long range:

This jet extension is thanks in part to the +EAMT that is forecasted to develop in the short range:

So, overall, it looks like there is some forcing that may be able to shake up this pattern. The jet extension will allow for the anomalous Aleutian ridge to build poleward and kick the mean trough out of the Pac NW and into the N Plains. This, in turn will allow for cold air to bleed into the E US:

It's nice to see the changes to the Pacific jet, as those kinds of shifts on modeling are usually representative of a large shift in the pattern and not a temporary blip. It's great to see the blocking signal still holding strong as well, as the 50/50 ULL and -NAO remain prominent features throughout the runs. As long as the mean position of the trough changes to anywhere east of where it is now, that would be a massive improvement. The patterns on the end of the runs would be quite cold and stormy with the Pacific becoming much more favorable with the cold dumping into the midsection of the country.

Now, of course, this could be a head fake, but I really don't believe so. The MJO is taking its time propagating through the Pacific, and Phase 7 forcing is more favorable in January anyway, so I don't see it as an issue. The +EAMT is also forecast to begin very soon, and the changes to the jet over the Pacific aren't very far out either. The forcing mechanisms that might help shake things up are in a tangible range.

Overall, I would like to see these changes continue into the weekend. The Jan 2 period is intriguing, as there could be some TPV influence in Canada and some SS wave trying to cut underneath. That's really all you can say at this range. However, it's nice that we're getting some chances, and we have that possible threat as well as the small WAA push in a couple days that's worth keeping an eye on for some light snow.

You said this week upcoming looked great last week, instead this week is near 50 everyday with intermittent rain.  The models past a few days, even ensembles are no better than a coin flip

[EasternLI]

Somebody should just start a January thread soon. My mojo sucks, so somebody else lol

[dmillz25]

12 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

You said this week upcoming looked great last week, instead this week is near 50 everyday with intermittent rain.  The models past a few days, even ensembles are no better than a coin flip

When did he say that? And by the way it just snowed last night lol

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

The GEFS and EPS have a gorgeous pattern evolution towards the end of their runs... this is thanks to the extension of the Pacific jet in the medium-long range:

This jet extension is thanks in part to the +EAMT that is forecasted to develop in the short range:

So, overall, it looks like there is some forcing that may be able to shake up this pattern. The jet extension will allow for the anomalous Aleutian ridge to build poleward and kick the mean trough out of the Pac NW and into the N Plains. This, in turn will allow for cold air to bleed into the E US:

It's nice to see the changes to the Pacific jet, as those kinds of shifts on modeling are usually representative of a large shift in the pattern and not a temporary blip. It's great to see the blocking signal still holding strong as well, as the 50/50 ULL and -NAO remain prominent features throughout the runs. As long as the mean position of the trough changes to anywhere east of where it is now, that would be a massive improvement. The patterns on the end of the runs would be quite cold and stormy with the Pacific becoming much more favorable with the cold dumping into the midsection of the country.

Now, of course, this could be a head fake, but I really don't believe so. The MJO is taking its time propagating through the Pacific, and Phase 7 forcing is more favorable in January anyway, so I don't see it as an issue. The +EAMT is also forecast to begin very soon, and the changes to the jet over the Pacific aren't very far out either. The forcing mechanisms that might help shake things up are in a tangible range.

Overall, I would like to see these changes continue into the weekend. The Jan 2 period is intriguing, as there could be some TPV influence in Canada and some SS wave trying to cut underneath. That's really all you can say at this range. However, it's nice that we're getting some chances, and we have that possible threat as well as the small WAA push in a couple days that's worth keeping an eye on for some light snow.

We will have chances ahead with the mjo in 7. 7 is awful for December but okay for January.

[MJO812]

53 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Fogetabout Any Monday Potential of snow in NYC

https://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html

Just because they said so ? 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

When did he say that? And by the way it just snowed last night lol

Yep and they said the pattern is awful for snow

 

[Rjay]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep and they said the pattern is awful for snow

 

Most of the area still has under and inch of snow for December...

[RippleEffect]

did you guys see the snowstorm for january 8th on the GFS? one can only dream