December 2021

[RippleEffect]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

97-98 was super close we just had a renegade oddball event in late March that I dont even remember.  I think 01-02 has to rank as the least severe winter in my lifetime but 97-98 is right behind it

what day was it on march 98? wasn't it like march 22nd or something like that? i remember it wasn't even forecasted, we were supposed to get freezing rain and sleet, woke up to heavy snow and 5 inches of heavy wet snow! it was a great surprise snowstorm.

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, RippleEffect said:

what day was it on march 98? wasn't it like march 22nd or something like that? i remember it wasn't even forecasted, we were supposed to get freezing rain and sleet, woke up to heavy snow and 5 inches of heavy wet snow! it was a great surprise snowstorm.

Yes it was. It was the tail end of a rainstorm and cold air came in quicker than expected giving us a surprise snowfall. It all melted in a few hours. Our only other snow that winter was a very minor half inch late December 

Oh and we were in the mid 80s less than a week later

[RippleEffect]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yes it was. It was the tail end of a rainstorm and cold air came in quicker than expected giving us a surprise snowfall. It all melted in a few hours. Our only other snow that winter was a very minor half inch late December 

Oh and we were in the mid 80s less than a week later

i remember that year very well. i had just moved to america the year before. i missed the 96-97 winter. what a winter to miss so i hear. haven't seen a 96-97 winter repeat. we had some good runs though the last 20 years.

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, RippleEffect said:

i remember that year very well. i had just moved to america the year before. i missed the 96-97 winter. what a winter to miss so i hear. haven't seen a 96-97 winter repeat. we had some good runs though the last 20 years.

96-97 had the famous April fools storm which crushed the interior but was a lame winter overall. 95-96 was the epic winter you're probably thinking of

[Brian5671]

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No dude I meant that was a year with a terrible atlantic and great pacific

 

Ah got it.   Yeah the Pacific rules the roost most of the time.    13-14 and 14-15 had the great -EPO with little Atlantic help as well.

[jm1220]

Parts of the CA Sierra have 300"+ of snow printed out on the last GFS throughout its run. That's just insane. Just an onslaught there. Good for them but it'll be hard to see us doing very well with that continuing and the trough digging there. We want the West warm and dry. 

[RippleEffect]

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

96-97 had the famous April fools storm which crushed the interior but was a lame winter overall. 95-96 was the epic winter you're probably thinking of

yes you're right i was thinking off the 95-96; that was the year. it snowed a lot but i hear it rained after too? or maybe i was misinformed.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, RippleEffect said:

yes you're right i was thinking off the 95-96; that was the year. it snowed a lot but i hear it rained after too? or maybe i was misinformed.

It did rain alot and we had a big warmup about 12 days after the 96 blizzard. Other than that we had mostly snow events

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

No sure if anyone is seeing mping reports to our southwest PHL area to near DC with spotty freezing drizzle, ice pellets and snow?  Not sure about the snow but an interesting night for ice is coming I think for nw NJ.  

Light drizzle here with 33.

[RippleEffect]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

It did rain alot and we had a big warmup about 12 days after the 96 blizzard. Other than that we had mostly snow events

nice wish i experienced that. i'm going to read about it right now. something to do since i got nowhere to go lol. man we need some snow right about now!

[LibertyBell]

44 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Parts of the CA Sierra have 300"+ of snow printed out on the last GFS throughout its run. That's just insane. Just an onslaught there. Good for them but it'll be hard to see us doing very well with that continuing and the trough digging there. We want the West warm and dry. 

doesnt that lead to horrendous wildfires though?

why cant we have a trough on both coasts, why cant we have short wavelengths right now instead of having to wait for March?

 

[wdrag]

Very icy here in Wantage NJ...post is in NW suburbs thread. 

[wdrag]

For this who follow models: Any disagreement, post here.  Otherwise, let this be a bit of template for the winter stuff...at least the subtle winter events- as ongoing here in NW NJ. 

I checked on all the models: HRDPS complete miss,  the 00z/22 GFS complete miss this far northwest.  EC is a start. HRRR...a concern of mine recently in winter. TOOO warm and a miss. SPC HREF terrible until finally catching on with it's 00z/22 cycle... far too late when compared to the RGEM as early as the 06z/21 cycle.  The RGEM and GGEM again best on lead time and current 00z/22 cycle for temps and associated weather (ZR-). 

So, I'm not threading yet... but NYC may see some measurable snow around 1AM Friday. Please see attached 07z/24 hourly precip type forecast by the RGEM.  GFS is trying for same, but slightly warmer=wetter for NYC.  

Right now the modeling is suggesting 0.5 to 1.5" snow event along and especially north of I80.  That could shift for Thursday night-Friday morning.  I won't thread this until sometime Wednesday night if it's still possible for NYC. 

[snowman19]

12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures rose into the 40s today. Tomorrow will be another mild day before a brief push of modestly colder air knocks down temperatures on Thursday. Overall, temperatures will generally be near or above normal throughout much of the remainder of December. No severe cold is likely through the remainder of December.

It will be a different story in the Pacific Northwest. Near record to record cold, along with snowfall, is possible during the closing days of December in such cities as Portland, Seattle, and Vancouver.

Afterward, if the small sample of cases where the MJO moved into Phase 7 at a high amplitude (1.75 or above) during the December 10-20 period, as occurred this month, is representative, the first 10 days of January could see below to perhaps much below normal temperatures. However, the coldest air will likely remain confined to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and western and central Canada for much of this period.

January will likely commence with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). There are some hints that a milder pattern could begin to develop around mid-January.    

In the Midwest, through 4 pm today, Chicago has yet to receive its first measurable snowfall. The old record latest first measurable snowfall was December 20, 2012.

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter.

The SOI was -27.14 today. That is the lowest value since June 20, 2020 when the SOI was -33.95.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.453 today.

On December 19 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.611 (RMM). The December 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.677 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.7° (3.6° above normal).

 

@bluewaveEarly January starting to not look all that cold anymore, here’s the big part of the reason why, that Niña standing wave will not be denied this winter:

 

[MJO812]

Euro does move the MJO but slowly.  I don't think we will be shut out this winter but December  is done for winter weather. 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

35 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@bluewaveEarly January starting to not look all that cold anymore, here’s the big part of the reason why, that Niña standing wave will not be denied this winter:

 

It’s looking less promising, but some cold could still sink southward into the region. Severe cold isn’t likely. Tomorrow’s EPS weeklies will provide further insight.

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It’s looking less promising, but some cold could still sink southward into the region. Severe cold isn’t likely. Tomorrow’s EPS weeklies will provide further insight.

Meh any long range should be taken with a grain of salt.  How many times have we seen a snowy pattern turned to crap ? Or the other way around ?

 

[nyrangers1022]

Called into work at 1230 for icing conditions, especially higher elevations.  Got back home at 3am.   Sleep deprived, with a covid booster shot yesterday, going back to work not feeling 100%.  Lets see if I make it to 330

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Light rain will give way to sunshine. It will become windy. High temperatures will likely reach mainly the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 46°

Newark: 50°

Philadelphia: 48°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 42.5°; 15-Year: 43.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 43.0°; 15-Year: 44.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 44.3°; 15-Year: 45.3°

Tomorrow will be sunny but cold. Milder air will return afterward.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  40degs.(36/44), or +6>>>+3 nowadays.

Month to date is  44.8[+4.5].        Should be  43.4[+4.1] by the 30th.

Reached 44 here yesterday.

Today: 44-46 early, wind nw and breezy later with clearing, 32 by midnight, 28 tomorrow AM.

The 25 from two days ago could hold till Jan. 06, now.

40*(99%RH) here at 6am, rain-wet snow in air{39* at 4am}.     41* at 7am.      45* at Noon.      48* at 2pm.      40* at 6pm.    35* at 8pm.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Meh any long range should be taken with a grain of salt.  How many times have we seen a snowy pattern turned to crap ? Or the other way around ?

 

We will have our chances for sure, but the odds of a big winter are now decreasing since we lost a potential good 2 weeks period

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

We will have our chances for sure, but the odds of a big winter are now decreasing since we lost a potential good 2 weeks period

Yeah, shades of 01/02-11/12-19/20 are definitely in the air. We really need a full scale pattern reversal. That might not happen until we have our next Nino. But your just not going to cut it with such a persistent -pna. I’m not the type to throw in the towel, but generally a rat winter shows itself early on. 

[EastonSN+]

Why are a lot of people down on the MJO. Extended phase 7 in a La Nina is good news.

[bluewave]

This was the fourth warmest first three weeks of December in NYC.  8 out of the 10 warmest average temperatures occurred since the late 90s. The most recent La Ninas this warm in December were 2011, 1998, and 1999.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Dec 21	Missing Count
1	2015-12-21	50.2	0
2	2001-12-21	48.9	0
3	1998-12-21	48.7	0
4	2021-12-21	44.8	0
5	2012-12-21	44.7	0
6	2011-12-21	43.9	0
7	1999-12-21	43.7	0
-	1984-12-21	43.7	0
8	2006-12-21	43.5	0
-	1923-12-21	43.5	0
9	1990-12-21	43.3	0
10	1956-12-21	43.2	0

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Why are a lot of people down on the MJO. Extended phase 7 in a La Nina is good news.

Exactly 

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Why are a lot of people down on the MJO. Extended phase 7 in a La Nina is good news.

We will have missed about three weeks of normal southern NY and southern New England ski season. Winter for most people is more than just watching snowfall. It is about actually enjoying winter sports and toys. The overnight lows have sucked and been way too warm to even make snow. 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, JustinRP37 said:

We will have missed about three weeks of normal southern NY and southern New England ski season. Winter for most people is more than just watching snowfall. It is about actually enjoying winter sports and toys. The overnight lows have sucked and been way too warm to even make snow. 

As Anthony mentioned phase 7 in Jan is colder than December, therefore rather than looping to 5 and kissing January goodbye as well. They can make snow in phase 7. Also my query was pointed at the outlook, I was not asking why people are upset about what has already happened in December.

[SnoSki14]

Not much to be optimistic about. Jan could see some action first half as cold tries to bleed further south despite unfavorable PNA. 

I do think mid-late Jan through mid Feb will be a torch as we lose blocking temporarily. However I expect blocking to resurface later on with the -PNA no longer acting as a deterrent late Feb & March. 

I'm expecting 30" most of which will come in late Feb & March. 

[EastonSN+]

13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Not much to be optimistic about. Jan could see some action first half as cold tries to bleed further south despite unfavorable PNA. 

I do think mid-late Jan through mid Feb will be a torch as we lose blocking temporarily. However I expect blocking to resurface later on with the -PNA no longer acting as a deterrent late Feb & March. 

I'm expecting 30" most of which will come in late Feb & March. 

Yeah I am on same page wrt snowfall and pattern progression, however to me in a La Nina following a potential snowless December this brings optimism to me. 

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This was the fourth warmest first three weeks of December in NYC.  8 out of the 10 warmest average temperatures occurred since the late 90s. The most recent La Ninas this warm in December were 2011, 1998, and 1999.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Dec 21	Missing Count
1	2015-12-21	50.2	0
2	2001-12-21	48.9	0
3	1998-12-21	48.7	0
4	2021-12-21	44.8	0
5	2012-12-21	44.7	0
6	2011-12-21	43.9	0
7	1999-12-21	43.7	0
-	1984-12-21	43.7	0
8	2006-12-21	43.5	0
-	1923-12-21	43.5	0
9	1990-12-21	43.3	0
10	1956-12-21	43.2	0

Scary that there were 3 others warmer