NittanyWx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Not loving these west/Pac trends last few runs. Path of least resistance is to dump this cold air supply west, makes for a trickier situation if we can bleed something east storm wise. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: Not loving these west/Pac trends last few runs. Path of least resistance is to dump this cold air supply west, makes for a trickier situation if we can bleed something east storm wise. Alot of redevelopers in in east with the negative NAO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 24 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Brian and snowman19 are back weenie people I call it as it is. A crappy pattern. Maybe it changes going into January but we continue to kick the can forward, first it was 12/15, then 12/22 now we're looking at 1/1. A crappy Pacific continues to dominate. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I call it as it is. A crappy pattern. Maybe it changes going into January but we continue to kick the can forward, first it was 12/15, then 12/22 now we're looking at 1/1. A crappy Pacific continues to dominate. We should get a 3 incher around mid month if 2012 and 2020 are indicators Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 23 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I call it as it is. A crappy pattern. Maybe it changes going into January but we continue to kick the can forward, first it was 12/15, then 12/22 now we're looking at 1/1. A crappy Pacific continues to dominate. Yeah it looks like a continuation of the same old thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Just now, lee59 said: Yeah it looks like a continuation of the same old thing Seattle goes into the deep freeze next week that's where all the cold air is going with the -PNA. We end up with stale cold and battling the SE ridge from time to time for the next 7 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Seattle goes into the deep freeze next week that's where all the cold air is going with the -PNA. We end up with stale cold and battling the SE ridge from time to time for the next 7 days or so. Sure looks that way at least for the near future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Alot of redevelopers in in east with the negative NAO I've read this 3x and I still don't know what you're trying to say. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 40 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Seattle goes into the deep freeze next week that's where all the cold air is going with the -PNA. We end up with stale cold and battling the SE ridge from time to time for the next 7 days or so. For me it's more a matter of if you can leak some air east behind one of these storms, have some HP and can get a little SW riding the boundary between the antecedent airmass and that ridge. That's how you thread the needle in this type of pattern. It's a tougher ask. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 56 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Seattle goes into the deep freeze next week that's where all the cold air is going with the -PNA. We end up with stale cold and battling the SE ridge from time to time for the next 7 days or so. They will have a lot more snow than us. Looks a good winter setting up for them, maybe even historic. 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: I call it as it is. A crappy pattern. Maybe it changes going into January but we continue to kick the can forward, first it was 12/15, then 12/22 now we're looking at 1/1. A crappy Pacific continues to dominate. We could def thread the needle in this pattern. We've had much worse patterns. Nothing crazy of course but some snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 33 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: I've read this 3x and I still don't know what you're trying to say. Sorry drank too much green tea this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 37 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: For me it's more a matter of if you can leak some air east behind one of these storms, have some HP and can get a little SW riding the boundary between the antecedent airmass and that ridge. That's how you thread the needle in this type of pattern. It's a tougher ask. Good afternoonNW. Your avatar is excellent advice for our sub-forum during the cold season. As always … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Seattle goes into the deep freeze next week that's where all the cold air is going with the -PNA. We end up with stale cold and battling the SE ridge from time to time for the next 7 days or so. Yeah this is kinda where I'm at right now too. Need to see some convincing sign that West-Coast trough is going to either relax or pull westward a bit. I don't think it'd take much to put us in the game, but for the next two weeks, we're not in it. Still wondering whether that cold pool west of Ecuador does us some good before the winter's out. I might be more inclined to say yes if that other cold pool east of the Aleutians weren't so robust. The lesson here is that it's really tough to overcome a crumby PAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Just now, Eduardo said: Yeah this is kinda where I'm at right now too. Need to see some convincing sign that West-Coast trough is going to either relax or pull westward a bit. I don't think it'd take much to put us in the game, but for the next two weeks, we're not in it. Still wondering whether that cold pool west of Ecuador does us some good before the winter's out. I might be more inclined to say yes if that other cold pool east of the Aleutians weren't so robust. The lesson here is that it's really tough to overcome a crumby PAC. my other concern is that the ATL blocking dissipates in a couple weeks. Then we will have problems on that end. Things just not lining up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: my other concern is that the ATL blocking dissipates in a couple weeks. Then we will have problems on that end. Things just not lining up It is very likely the -NAO/-AO breaks down come mid-January. Also looking very likely that either the MJO dies or never makes it to phase 8. The SPV remains very strong. Also, looks like IO convection starts firing at this same time 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 6 hours ago, bluewave said: It’s tough for the -AO to have the intended effect when it’s up against a 5 sigma Aleutians Ridge. This may be the strongest positive 500 mb height anomaly on record in that area for the month of December. So it results in the very deep -PNA trough over the Western US. Looks like the severe -PNA continues unabated right into early-mid January…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 40 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: my other concern is that the ATL blocking dissipates in a couple weeks. Then we will have problems on that end. Things just not lining up Let's take one week at a time LOL at throwing in the towel in December 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Let's take one week at a time LOL at throwing in the towel in December Many people were throwing in the towel last December as well. I wound up with 60 inches, over 30 in February. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: my other concern is that the ATL blocking dissipates in a couple weeks. Then we will have problems on that end. Things just not lining up The very cold and snowy end of November and December forecasts for the east are about to go down in flames….might be one of the biggest busts of all time….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The very cold and snowy end of November and December forecasts for the east are about to go down in flames….might be one of the biggest busts of all time….. It is going to bust but not the biggest bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 23 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Many people were throwing in the towel last December as well. I wound up with 60 inches, over 30 in February. It happens every winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Let's take one week at a time LOL at throwing in the towel in December ....we'll have our chances but it won't be in the next 7-14 days most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It is going to bust but not the biggest bust it's up there-December is on track for 2rd or 3rd warmest of all time in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 38 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Many people were throwing in the towel last December as well. I wound up with 60 inches, over 30 in February. Totally different-we had a foot of snow mid-December 2020 which portends an above average winter snow wise. This December looks like an 0 fer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 19 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The very cold and snowy end of November and December forecasts for the east are about to go down in flames….might be one of the biggest busts of all time….. Exaggeration much 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 52 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Let's take one week at a time LOL at throwing in the towel in December Calling a crap pattern bad isn't throwing in the towel on the entire season. 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 29 minutes ago, bluewave said: The -PNA is the one constant on the latest extended EPS. Tries to press the gradient SE in early January for colder temperatures and maybe some overrunning snow potential. It loses the -AO during the 2nd half of January and temperatures rebound. Dec 20-27 Dec 27 to Jan 3 Jan 3 to 10 RNA as far as the eye can see. And yea, it loses the -AO and also wants to lose the -NAO as well come mid-January. If that’s the case, we have a problem…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Stuck in phase 7 on the eps and gefs today. So it’s just a very similar pattern continuing on those right now. The flip side though, being stuck in phase 7 has legit potential to deal hits to the PV. How much so? Seems like it could be significant if we actually were to get stuck in a pattern capable of doing that. Repeatedly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Weeklies! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Totally different-we had a foot of snow mid-December 2020 which portends an above average winter snow wise. This December looks like an 0 fer. I'm talking about before that storm. First 2 weeks of December there were some saying the fat lady was about to sing. I understand this winter not be anywhere near last winter's total but I do expect several snow chances. Last years D-J-F temps were above normal also but we managed some decent amounts. The average December snowfall in NYC is about 4 inches with less than a 25% chance of a White Christmas so it's not that great a month for snow anyway although this one has been very warm. Hopefully things get better next month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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