December 2021

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

November was cold and October was -NAO 

 

4 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

November was cold and October was -NAO 

The fall and now early winter has featured above normal temps across much of the country....

[lee59]

The pattern for a while now has simply been mild to chilly to normal and back to mild repeat, rinse. Looks like this continues for the rest of this year, no prolonged cold in site.

[MJO812]

[StormchaserChuck!]

384hr GFS

 

[NEG NAO]

On 11/25/2021 at 9:33 AM, MJO812 said:

First week will feature a few mild days and them winter should be here .

Lets get realistic here - many people here including myself and  have been making assumptions that have turned out wrong ! This pattern has been fooling many people the last month and models past 3 -5 days have been generally useless giving conflicting output every couple of days for the longer range. IMO the key to the winter outlook past Christmas is the PNA - the AO and NAO are favorable for winter weather and have been consistent in their output for favorable for winter weather - the PNA is the one to keep an eye on IMO - will this trend towards neutral and possibly positive territory verify ??

 

[bluewave]

I don’t think that we are downplaying anything. The entire Northern Hemisphere land area is coming off the warmest fall on record. So it’s no surprise December has been more like a fall month than winter. 

This forum contains short and long range forecast discussions. So it’s natural to look forward to getting a possibly better pattern in early January.There have been no claims on how long any improved pattern could last. Let’s just wait and see what we can get in early January. Even if a better pattern compared to what we have now lasts only a few weeks, we’ll  take it. Very hard to extrapolate a whole month based on an early January snapshot. Things could shift more or less favorable in the next two weeks. 
 

 

[CIK62]

The last 10 days of the year according to Hoyle:

[NEG NAO]

11 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The last 10 days of the year according to Hoyle:

I'll believe that for the metro when I experience it and  after it verifies.......

[Stormlover74]

Barely .1" of rain today

[StormchaserChuck!]

This looks good, I like those shortwaves digging in the West coming under the 498dm Polar vortex. 107mb gradient. Wonder how much warm air convection we can trend towards.? 

[ForestHillWx]

Raw/rainy 38 here. 

[NEG NAO]

10 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

This looks good. I like those shortwaves digging in the West. 100mb gradient. 

Doesn't look good if you want cold and snow here - look at the southeast

[EastonSN+]

This is VERY close to something decent. 

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Doesn't look good if you want cold and snow here - look at the southeast

Blocking can help lessen the ridge 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

Lets get realistic here - many people here including myself and  have been making assumptions that have turned out wrong ! This pattern has been fooling many people the last month and models past 3 -5 days have been generally useless giving conflicting output every couple of days for the longer range. IMO the key to the winter outlook past Christmas is the PNA - the AO and NAO are favorable for winter weather and have been consistent in their output for favorable for winter weather - the PNA is the one to keep an eye on IMO - will this trend towards neutral and possibly positive territory verify ??

 

A negative NAO/AO combined with a strongly negative PNA/PDO in late December/January will lead to a gradient pattern that favors New England.

It's very 2007-2008 esque with heaviest amounts in central/northern New England

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

A negative NAO/AO combined with a strongly negative PNA/PDO in late December/January will lead to a gradient pattern that favors New England.

It's very 2007-2008 esque with heaviest amounts in central/northern New England

I’d certainly want to see the PNA at least trend toward neutral for our area. Otherwise I agree we risk another 07-08 with rounds of SWFEs that blast I-90 and do us no good. The SE ridge is beneficial though (not overwhelming) since it forces the storms to turn north and not suppress out to sea. 

[Allsnow]

21 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’d certainly want to see the PNA at least trend toward neutral for our area. Otherwise I agree we risk another 07-08 with rounds of SWFEs that blast I-90 and do us no good. The SE ridge is beneficial though (not overwhelming) since it forces the storms to turn north and not suppress out to sea. 

But I don’t think we had blocking in 07-08. With blocking and moving the pna out into the Rockies would give us a better chance. We would definitely risk cutters but the opportunity would be better then 07/08

[Allsnow]

That’s a incredible block showing up on a day 11-15 mean (obviously it starts way earlier then that) but the fact that it will still be there in January as the pac improves is a great sign. I still think we wait until closer to NYD for our first threat but perhaps something works before then. 

[NEG NAO]

41 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

That’s a incredible block showing up on a day 11-15 mean (obviously it starts way earlier then that) but the fact that it will still be there in January as the pac improves is a great sign. I still think we wait until closer to NYD for our first threat but perhaps something works before then. 

Nobody has any idea how this all is going to play out after day 5 - the models keep flip flopping all over the place the PNA indice  forecast is unreliable and there are a few other unanswered questions - one is if the - NAO will cause suppression down the road ........

[MJO812]

Euro is  very close for the 22nd storm

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is  very close for the 22nd storm

does it really matter ? a few rain showers possible especially south and east

[RippleEffect]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is VERY close to something decent. 

bro it's 10 days away

[RippleEffect]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is  very close for the 22nd storm

it's dead Jim 

[bluewave]

NYC is currently in 4th place for warmest December 1st to 17th. A large part of the country is also having top 5 warmth.  7 of the top 10 warmest readings have been since the late 1990s.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Dec 17	Missing Count
1	2015-12-17	52.0	0
2	2001-12-17	50.1	0
3	1998-12-17	49.8	0
4	2021-12-17	46.6	0
5	1953-12-17	45.0	0
6	2012-12-17	44.8	0
-	2011-12-17	44.8	0
7	1999-12-17	44.4	0
8	1897-12-17	44.3	0
9	1956-12-17	44.0	0
-	1879-12-17	44.0	2
10	1923-12-17	43.8

 

 

[snowman19]

52 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

does it really matter ? a few rain showers possible especially south and east

And a low in the lakes where there should be a high, but it’s very close 

[NittanyWx]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I’d certainly want to see the PNA at least trend toward neutral for our area. Otherwise I agree we risk another 07-08 with rounds of SWFEs that blast I-90 and do us no good. The SE ridge is beneficial though (not overwhelming) since it forces the storms to turn north and not suppress out to sea. 

 

The problem is the 2 sigma block sitting over the Aleutians instead of the GOA.  That's driving the PNA tank.

 

Once again the American suite overamped the VP signal in an area where standing wave/seasonal interference during well developed Nina's occur, got people to bite on it, then backed off on the signal closer in.  I've lost count how many times I've seen the American suite do that.

 

If the Pacific isn't gonna help at all its gonna be a struggle. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

 

The problem is the 2 sigma block sitting over the Aleutians instead of the GOA.  That's driving the PNA tank.

 

Once again the American suite overamped the VP signal in an area where standing wave/seasonal interference during well developed Nina's occur, got people to bite on it, then backed off on the signal closer in.  I've lost count how many times I've seen the American suite do that.

 

If the Pacific isn't gonna help at all its gonna be a struggle. 

The AO and NAO arent going to help ?

[the_other_guy]

Looks like another AN week ahead. Some days very much so.

Just a brutal month.

[NittanyWx]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The AO and NAO arent going to help ?

 

Neither of those dislodge a decent source airmass into eastern Canada when the Pacific looks like it does.   Tuesday a great example..you get a coastal low with no air and no HP. 

Storms can happen in these patterns, but it's a thread the needle situation and those generally don't work out well for this area.

[EasternLI]

Happy new year from the 12Z EPS