MJO812 Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Need the northern stream to dig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Need the northern stream to dig Not a chance with that -PNA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Not a chance with that -PNA There are signs the PNA will be moving towards neutral or positive territory around the New Year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Both Chicago and NYC get their first ? snow of the season on Christmas and or Boxing Day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: There are signs the PNA will be moving towards neutral or positive territory around the New Year That will happen when it gets into 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 Cold Christmas on the GFS for the Northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Reminds me of 2010 when we spent Christmas Eve and Day tracking the Boxing Day Blizzard...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: Reminds me of 2010 when we spent Christmas Eve and Day tracking the Boxing Day Blizzard...... Long ways out but the pattern has potential and the blocking is moving up in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: I’m still waiting for the 8-12 inches in my area that the GFS showed for run after run earlier this month….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 19 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, it’s all related. The MJO slowing in phase 6-7 this month is right over those record SSTs causing the extreme marine heatwave. In recent years during La Ninas, the most amplified MJO phase 6-7 phases were later in the winter. So this much amplitude in December is something new for us. The big La Niña strengthening period shown by the models at the end of October/beginning of November worked out very well. It has now reached moderate (-1.1C in region 3.4) strength. One thing is certain, the La Niña and the record -PDO/-PMM will not be denied. The long range models show convection starting to fire in the IO by mid-January, to be taken with a grain of salt of course, but should that happen, it will get milder again after the end of December/early January period, which fits Niña climo. If that’s going to be the case we will need a major SSW to really shake things up so we don’t follow -ENSO climo (warmer) going into mid-late January and February. This is a very well coupled -ENSO event, unlike last year….. @donsutherland1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 5 hours ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: NAM looks way south more ice and snow further south. Either way I look to be in for a pretty good ice event here. Hopefully NAM is trending towards the Euro, def took a big step in that direction. Also major icing. 0z 18z 0z 18z Taking typical QPF reductions into consideration, and in conjunction with how temperatures should possibly be right between 29-32 for the event, you still probably see a solid .1-.3 event. Still enough to draw some advisories or even a short fuse ice storm warning for anything more. Elevation remains key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 That EPS is looking kinda interesting just before Christmas. Miller A hopes maybe? We'd need a ton of improvement out west but will monitor to see if there's a trend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Currently 55* here as of 5AM, mid 60's are in reach today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Morning thoughts… Early this morning, record highs were smashed in such cities as Chicago, Green Bay, Madison, Milwaukee, and Rockford. The region will be on the fringe of the exceptionally warm air mass responsible for the historic mid-December warmth. Today will be mostly cloudy and very mild. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 61° Newark: 63° Philadelphia: 64° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 44.1°; 15-Year: 44.8° Newark: 30-Year: 44.6°; 15-Year: 45.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 45.8°; 15-Year: 46.7° The unseasonably mild weather will continue into the start of the weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: The big La Niña strengthening period shown by the models at the end of October/beginning of November worked out very well. It has now reached moderate (-1.1C in region 3.4) strength. One thing is certain, the La Niña and the record -PDO/-PMM will not be denied. The long range models show convection starting to fire in the IO by mid-January, to be taken with a grain of salt of course, but should that happen, it will get milder again after the end of December/early January period, which fits Niña climo. If that’s going to be the case we will need a major SSW to really shake things up so we don’t follow -ENSO climo (warmer) going into mid-late January and February. This is a very well coupled -ENSO event, unlike last year….. Like we have seen in recent years, these marine heatwaves can enhance or weaken the ENSO background states. Last winter the marine heatwave worked against the La Niña and it couldn’t couple. This year the record SST warmth in MJO 6 and 7 is causing the most amplified La Niña December MJO 6-7 in the records. So we are getting a typical JFM La Niña MJO response in December instead of later in the season. This current MJO 6-7 is what we got during our last 4 La Ninas later in the season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: I’m still waiting for the 8-12 inches in my area that the GFS showed for run after run earlier this month….. to be fair GFS is a crappy model but it only showed that 8-12 inches once for the storm that we missed last time and we just got snow showers! the upcoming pattern is a toss up anything could happen! we have some chances but i wish we had the +PNA trough over the lakes that would give better interactions between the northern and southern jet streams! we'll have to monitor that this weekend. there's still a chance we get a phase next week, i'd say a 25% chance of it happening at this point. have a nice day guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 43degs.(38/48), or +8>>>+5 nowadays. Month to date is 45.4[+4.2]. Should be 44.6[+4.4] by the 24th. Reached 55 here yesterday. Today: 59-62, wind s. to sw., cloudy then clearing. No snow for 10 days showing on any model, just gossamers. Coldest day is Christmas ironically at 24/33. 52*(95%RH) here at 6am. 56* at 11am. 60* at 2pm. 61* at 3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: I’m still waiting for the 8-12 inches in my area that the GFS showed for run after run earlier this month….. Different pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 This is just a really nice example of a 50/50 low on the 6z gefs after Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 Euro MJO is going back to 6 and then to 7. Typhoon causing madness? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro MJO is going back to 6 and then to 7. Typhoon causing madness? The RMM chart forecasts are famous for rushing things. All you are seeing know is them correcting to the slower VP charts. The VP charts still have MJO phase 7 on January 1st. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 3 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said: Taking typical QPF reductions into consideration, and in conjunction with how temperatures should possibly be right between 29-32 for the event, you still probably see a solid .1-.3 event. Still enough to draw some advisories or even a short fuse ice storm warning for anything more. Elevation remains key. Coming back to this hours later: daytime event only places a cap on the level of accretions. Probably only up to .2” ice at most in elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 55 right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 MJO 7 in early January has a different effect than in December. The hope is that is eventually leads to height rises in California. That’s what the latest JMA is trying to show. So it will be interesting to see if the EPS weeklies update today follows the JMA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: MJO 7 in early January has a different effect than in December. The hope is that is eventually leads to height rises in California. That’s what the latest JMA is trying to show. So it will be interesting to see if the EPS weeklies update today follows the JMA. It's possible that the typhoon is messing around with the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 26 minutes ago, bluewave said: MJO 7 in early January has a different effect than in December. The hope is that is eventually leads to height rises in California. That’s what the latest JMA is trying to show. So it will be interesting to see if the EPS weeklies update today follows the JMA. That looks totally workable with the coldest climo of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That looks totally workable with the coldest climo of the year. no +PNA for the amplifying systems that we really get dumped on but that to me looks okay as storms will most likely scoot south of us but they'll be small events i don't see a big storm with this look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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