LibertyBell Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The western trough will be a problem until wavelengths change. Wouldn't be surprised if March ends up as the coldest/snowiest month. Yes thats when wavelengths shorten and you can realistically have troughs on both coasts. This happened in the 50s too and has been happening as of late (along with more east coast TC landfalls just like we had back then.) But the point which still holds is if March is your snowiest month then you haven't had a very good snowfall season. We can still be above average with snowfall but definitely not blockbuster. Which is fine, I think most would settle for 30" or even slightly less than that. Anything more would be a bonus, not impossible but not very likely (1955-56 is an example of that as is 2017-18.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 Couldn't hurt to keep one eye on this 21st timeframe. Trends have been to take what looked like a huge western trough at long range and cut it off offshore instead more recently. That would allow some room for a transient height rise out west if that were to continue trending. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It seems though if we could just nail that December snowfall forecast (the 3" marker you mentioned) we could at least make a pretty safe bet on whether the winter will be plus or minus snowfall wise.....let's for the sake of simplicity say average NYC snowfall is 30".....do you think it's a safe bet if we just use that one data point and project snowfall for NYC for an entire season just based on December we could say IF snowfall at NYC in December is less than 3" seasonal snowfall will be less than 30" IF snowfall at NYC in December is more than 3" seasonal snowfall will be more than 30"? Maybe we could make the forecast around Thanksgiving which would maximize its accuracy and come up with a list of analogs around that time? The 3” snowfall marker for December in NYC has only worked with La Niña winters since they are supposed to be front-loaded. It’s not something we can us use in El Niño’s since they usually are back-loaded. But since this year we are getting a February strong -PNA pattern in December, it may or may not be valid. If we can’t make it to 3” before the end of December, that would put us in the below normal category for what we have since the 1990s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny, breezy, and noticeably cooler. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 49° Newark: 52° Philadelphia: 51° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 45.2°; 15-Year: 45.8° Newark: 30-Year: 45.7°; 15-Year: 46.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 46.9°; 15-Year: 47.7° Milder air will begin to return tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: The western trough will be a problem until wavelengths change. Wouldn't be surprised if March ends up as the coldest/snowiest month. Probably. However I am intrigued by the forecasted MJO, and the fact that we are not following a typical La Nina December. I can see a couple of periods before March where we see a few overrunning, changeover events leading to a close to, or normal snowfall winter. 19/20 ended up being fairly close to normal (just a few inches below) with a snowy March. I can see something similar this year. Looks nothing like a ratter (aka 11/12). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2021 Author Share Posted December 12, 2021 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: The western trough will be a problem until wavelengths change. Wouldn't be surprised if March ends up as the coldest/snowiest month. LOL You are ignoring the pattern on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2021 Author Share Posted December 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Probably. However I am intrigued by the forecasted MJO, and the fact that we are not following a typical La Nina December. I can see a couple of periods before March where we see a few overrunning, changeover events leading to a close to, or normal snowfall winter. 19/20 ended up being fairly close to normal (just a few inches below) with a snowy March. I can see something similar this year. Looks nothing like a ratter (aka 11/12). We will be fine with the forecasted nao and AO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 28 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Probably. However I am intrigued by the forecasted MJO, and the fact that we are not following a typical La Nina December. I can see a couple of periods before March where we see a few overrunning, changeover events leading to a close to, or normal snowfall winter. 19/20 ended up being fairly close to normal (just a few inches below) with a snowy March. I can see something similar this year. Looks nothing like a ratter (aka 11/12). I dont think there was any measureable snow March 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 22 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Probably. However I am intrigued by the forecasted MJO, and the fact that we are not following a typical La Nina December. I can see a couple of periods before March where we see a few overrunning, changeover events leading to a close to, or normal snowfall winter. 19/20 ended up being fairly close to normal (just a few inches below) with a snowy March. I can see something similar this year. Looks nothing like a ratter (aka 11/12). I'd be shocked if this year is even remotely close to something like 11-12. Tropical convection is night and day different from that year. It was stuck the Indian Ocean to Maritime Continent in 11-12. Which is god awful for winter prospects. Remember 19-20 winter? Turns out the ++IOD was a huge problem, in hindsight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I dont think there was any measureable snow March 2020 He might be referring to winter 2018-19 and March 2019. 2019-20 was among the least snowy winters on record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 I would think long range predictions of just snowfall is completely unrealistic. The best we can do is to project a colder and wetter season, which probability would suggest some of that will be snow... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2021 Author Share Posted December 12, 2021 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 Getting a favorable Pacific is more important for our area. New England can get by with a -EPO/-PNA/-NAO. But a -PNA trough over the West will push the gradient into New England. We will need to eventually flatten out that SE Ridge near the end of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: LOL You are ignoring the pattern on the models What pattern? If anyone is ignoring the pattern on the models, it's you. Just peeking at the ensembles the geps and gefs still have a west coast trough and se ridge at 300+ hrs. The eps looks a bit chilly at day 10 but a wc trough is about to set up which will pump the se ridge. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2021 Author Share Posted December 12, 2021 21 minutes ago, Rjay said: What pattern? If anyone is ignoring the pattern on the models, it's you. Just peeking at the ensembles the geps and gefs still have a west coast trough and se ridge at 300+ hrs. The eps looks a bit chilly at day 10 but a wc trough is about to set up which will pump the se ridge. So the other people who think the pattern will get better are ignoring it? I have no clue what to tell you if you think this upcoming pattern will be shitty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2021 Author Share Posted December 12, 2021 I can't find alot of things to hate about this upcoming pattern except for the PNA staying negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: So the other people who think the pattern will get better is ignoring it? LOL at you agreeing with Snowman. I have no clue what to tell you if you think this upcoming pattern will be shitty. But you be you How much snow are you expecting in nyc in the next 3 weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 21 minutes ago, Rjay said: What pattern? If anyone is ignoring the pattern on the models, it's you. Just peeking at the ensembles the geps and gefs still have a west coast trough and se ridge at 300+ hrs. The eps looks a bit chilly at day 10 but a wc trough is about to set up which will pump the se ridge. 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: So the other people who think the pattern will get better is ignoring it? LOL at you agreeing with Snowman. I have no clue what to tell you if you think this upcoming pattern will be shitty. But you be you 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: How much snow are you expecting in nyc in the next 3 weeks? Good early afternoon all. No matter what happens, I still hope Karen can get Frosty to the North Pole in time. As always ….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: So the other people who think the pattern will get better are ignoring it? I have no clue what to tell you if you think this upcoming pattern will be shitty. I didn't say it won't get better. I'm saying the ensembles still show a pattern that isn't good in their long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: I dont think there was any measureable snow March 2020 Your right was 18/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I can't find alot of things to hate about this upcoming pattern except for the PNA staying negative. And if it stays that way it's a big problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 New GFS ensembles bring -NAO in much better.. +360dm's hitting on almost half of the members at 192hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 41 minutes ago, Rjay said: What pattern? If anyone is ignoring the pattern on the models, it's you. Just peeking at the ensembles the geps and gefs still have a west coast trough and se ridge at 300+ hrs. The eps looks a bit chilly at day 10 but a wc trough is about to set up which will pump the se ridge. I am curious how the tri-state does in such a set-up. There must be a huge gradient between central Jersey, long island up to 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: And if it stays that way it's a big problem Yeah it's always going to be negative these days, we have a big Pacific drought, High pressure hitting somewhere over there. I think we can do well snowwise with a -NAO, seems we are due for more precip too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I am curious how the tri-state does in such a set-up. There must be a huge gradient between central Jersey, long island up to 84. I think the gradient would be north of us but that isn't a detail anyone could really hone in on at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 Keeping one eye on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Yeah it's always going to be negative these days, we have a big Pacific drought, High pressure hitting somewhere over there. I think we can do well snowwise with a -NAO, seems we are due for more precip too. You'd need the -nao to press on the se ridge enough to put us on the "good side" of the gradient. It's possible. We really need this wc trough to get out of there. The stats for 6" or greater snowfalls for NYC in December into early January with a -pna are pretty clear. It doesn't happen often. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 Thanks for the research/point, the Gulf coast jet stream doesn't really pick up until mid-January. Look at this though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 We just saw how poorly the GFS did with the fast Pacific flow last week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2021 Author Share Posted December 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: We just saw how poorly the GFS did with the fast Pacific flow last week. Terrible performance for the last storm. I feel good about our 1st snow threat around Christmas ( give or take a few days) 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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